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Bigbald

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Everything posted by Bigbald

  1. Bigbald
    12z Euro: this is the way to kickoff the winter tracking season with sheer disapointment, eases the sting and sets (resets) a low expectation for all of the 2023 season...merry festivus everyone
  2. Bigbald
    Should be some high ratio northwest flow at the very end for northeast tn/sw va.
  3. Bigbald
    Man that Canadian run
  4. Bigbald
    Where oh where have we seen this axis before??? Seems like the last 2 years have had this kind of banking axis against the Apps. In lala land so its probably moot but I was just struck by the familiarity.
  5. Bigbald
    2-3 inches over 8 hours is not enough to lay down and overcome ground temps with low rates for ktri. I would love to make a trip to gatlinburg however
  6. Bigbald
    Going to be tough looking at brown ground at ktri (once again) but probably a fitting end to a bad winter imby.
  7. Bigbald
    CMC 0/12z looks really consistent with a storm that doesn't materialize until basically out to sea, gfs 12z looks similiar. This has been a familiar pattern for what seems like the last 30 days, progressive flow easterly development.
  8. Bigbald
    We might set a record for how times we can whiff easterly this year.
  9. Bigbald
    One definitely can't call the 12z runs boring, alot of activity even if we aren't showing up as perfect hits on every storm.
  10. Bigbald
    It seems like in the last 3 weeks models have shown alot of perfect inland tracks for for the Tennessee Valley in the 7-10 day range only to have the system development much later and further east in the 4-7 day range. What are the players on the field that suggest we've bucked that trend?
  11. Bigbald
    12z gfs is a cutter parade until hr 320, ya know, the sweet spot of all modeling, which blanks west tn but hammers the east. Of course this will be gone by 18z.
  12. Bigbald
    Not a great run for anyone except far Northern New england.
  13. Bigbald
    The track looked pretty similiar to me aside from the fact it gets more amped earlier, the ramifications which seems to expand the precip shield and change the track more inland for the folks in the middle Atlantic. I can't get myself excited here but I'll watch it all the way like everyone else.
  14. Bigbald
    That, and the fact that all 3 models jumped on that one 12z run from friday. I kind of wondered if models were latching on to the big dog that sometimes happens far out.
  15. Bigbald
    Two thing I say to myself every saturday: 1) how is will wade still coaching after the fbi tapes? 2) how is Bruce Pearl still coaching aftrr the Chuck Persons scandal?
  16. Bigbald
    Yeah this 12z gfs run is going to be a beaut and front loaded (under 250 hrs).
  17. Bigbald
    What an awful 12z suite for friday/Saturday ha. At least we were never really in the game to be too invested in this system. Some of the model runs showing the precipitation shield blossoming west always looked funny to me anyways. Will still watch but I guess we are in punt territory.
  18. Bigbald
    Do we need that front to either move through quicker, or hang up more? I noticed in some of model runs from the last 4-5 days ago that when the front was originally pushing through it allowed a better track. Further watching would show it sometimes getting "entangled" with the frontal passage but well to our SE and getting pulled that direction?
  19. Bigbald
    Nam 12k and 3k try and keep the NW flow stuff around for upper East tn/swva until Tuesday at 2ish. Roan mtn must be a total mess!
  20. Bigbald
    Bob Chill had a good synopsis in the MA forum as to why they could fail in a seemingly perfect pattern because of how progressive the flow is. I believe it could apply to us as well or anyone a little further inland.
  21. Bigbald
    Is that Alleghany Springs?
  22. Bigbald
    Starting to get run to run consistency with the cold that follows, boy it turns cold and stays cold again on the CMC and GFS.
  23. Bigbald
    Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?
  24. Bigbald
    6z gfs suppresses most the storm action but my god it's cold. Ktri basically stays below freezing from around hr 110 till near the 384 hr mark.
  25. Bigbald
    0z CMC well northwest of 12z
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