I work in wise, VA, so I am super interested in the little meso scale between rgem and Nam. Rgem really gets messy in far swva there in the short term.
Good points, and I am totally speaking anecdotally right now, maybe it's been better than my memory is telling me (I can't even rem december). I will say this, it has definitely and consistently felt like winter here as opposed to the two previous.
Epic winter for the high country of upper east tn but damn it feels paltry at the base for places like kingsport/gc/gray. I would much rather have 2 7 inch snows over 14 nickel and dimers.
Tough thing is, it's been my experience that models scour residual cold artic too fast, so maybe it's worse than depicted at that hour given that bitterly cold air entrenched is harder to rid.
For TRI folks, it looks like there's less backside/enhancement at 156 hrs when compared to 6z, when the cold front punches through. But at that far out its devil in the details anyways and bound to change.
Will the cold front push through the plateau is my big question. It seems like recent modeling is hanging it up on the rim and creating that diagonal axis that gives the west, KY, etc.
It's amazing the jump that occurred from 12-18z to 0z on most of the models now honing in on the artic boundary, even if alot of the details and precise placement will still vary.
I let myself get a little too enamored with the 12z euro yesterday. Not that I thought it would happen verbatim but I miss having a big storm, here is the cold water snippet from MRX: