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Bigbald
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Everything posted by Bigbald
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Normally that's a beautiful track for east Tennessee, low just south of mobile, alabama. I wish it would meander over to Appalachacola before turning north but it seems to work for I 40 north.
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It will be interesting if models trend back to the low placement along the gulf with a more classical Miller A look. Time flies following model runs, I cant even remember the snow amounts that were projected with more that look a mere 36 hours ago?
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I've never felt less enthused about a 8-12 inch snow map for IMBY than I do right now.
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Seems like GFS has projected overamped storms alot this year. Could something like the 12z CMC be the middle of the road solution? I really like the Canadian under 150 hrs and once it seems to lock into the solution it seems to do quite well.
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That has got to be my favorite all time fantasy op run. Even at 384 hr there is a nice artic intrusion fixing to bomb down out of the Dakota's.
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Not that it matters, there are a billion threats and billion changes to come, but in the long term 12z gfs there is the world's greatest clipper dropping down at 300 hrs with solid precip falling into 7-15 degree air for a few days.
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Nearly a perfect track for east Tennessee on 12z CMC, wish it turn a little sharper west at hour 126 but that's nit picking.
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My post really adds nothing of substance here but whenever I see Carolina getting crushed I always feel fring-y at TRI. It's happened alot over my lifetime, enough so that I will have a bad knee jerk reaction when I see the bright colors over NC lol.
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Brick is on pace to be the next Bob Chill, beloved man of the forum.
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12z cmc and gfs really locked on to the next 6-7 days, remarkable jump.
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Was just discussing this with a beginner friend, the pizza aint supposed to save you down steep terrain. I made the biggest jump in sking when I learned to move horizontal down steep stuff, side by side through pressure, which is ultimately the only braking that really saves you if that's your big fear (was my hurdle). Alot follows from that.
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And for east tn/swva we've lost the mid to late week clipper action on the 12z suites of the CMC and GFS.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Bigbald replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tried to get a time lapse of the sunset atop Big Bald today and I couldn't take the cold long enough to do it. Basically, sweating while running up to the top got me, was 3.7 up 3.7 down. My kessler pocket temp reader said it was between 9-13 degrees, with winds steady at 5-10 gusting into the 20 mph range. I would think subzero is possible later.
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Hard to beat a good cold snow/high ratio, definitely at the top of the pantheon here. A big bucket lister is to get to enjoy a 2-3 day northwest flow event somewhere in a cabin in the high mountains.
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Really, it would also fill the void between Western NC to Snowshoe, WV. Add to that, super easy access off the highway there. Would of been interesting seeing a high fleutan Norton!
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I wish they had built a ski resort near the top of the knob in the 1940s, how different would Norton look like if so! Max elevation at the top is...what? 4200' ? Ski down into the bottom with well over 1000 vertical drop (beech and sugar only drop 7-900 ft) would of been an epic setup. Norton looks great in snow
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I just came from wise, they were getting hammered up there. I am guessing they go 6 plus easy
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Beautiful snow in wise county VA. I ll be leaving here on what is surely a depressing drive to kingsport.
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Posterity sake for Carvers 384 dreamland: Over the last week GFS has been hinting off and on with some major artic intrusions, at times its been really fun to watch.
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Hey Carver, I was looking at the awesome 12 or 18z gfs from yesterday which had some frigid air intruding and staying around around the Jan 15th onward time-frame. Later runs, I think 0z, had shunted the cold in Canada toward the far eastern areas and eventually away. Was that eastern shunting the result of a lack of blocking in the Atlantic verse what is depicted on this run (the cold centered over middle canada)?
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How cold is the 18z gfs long range? I am not sure ktri gets above freezing from 300 out to 384, and prolly beyond that if it went.
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18z gfs mirror the rather meteoric run of the 12z. We can all dream!
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What has been rock solid is Roan Mtn down the Smokies. I know they will always do better but it's been modeled solid there for a long time now.
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Jan 7-9 period still looks good for a light event although the 0z gfs is less enthusiastic than the prior 18z run, but 0z CMC has a nice event unfolding similiar to the 18z gfs. I think Kentucky is the main winner on that run.
