Jump to content

Bigbald

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    174

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bigbald

  1. Bigbald
    Alot less qpf over a greater area and a southern sag, and a much less northwest trajectory. Really kind of dramatic between 0z and 12z considering the small amount of time.
  2. Bigbald
    Alot more easterly out to sea on the gfs. I thought we had settled that!
  3. Bigbald
    Not sure I'd sweat it too hard. Rgem loses the flow for like a 6 hr panel at hour 67. It looks like an error to me since prior runs don't disconnect like that and it picks right back up at like hour 72ish. Would be a good hit for JC
  4. Bigbald
    Toots Weather Forum was a good one for east TN snow homerism. Toot could hug a snowy model till the end. Toot was apparently a little abrasive in various weather communities and died tragically young.
  5. Bigbald
    I always enjoyed probability and statistics in college, even though I was horrible with numbers. If they think there is a 40% chance of 3 or more inches, would they also accept a 5000$ bet to pay out equivalent odds that it does snow over 3 inches?
  6. Bigbald
    12z was Johns "snap to" suite for the first wave. For east TN, we watch the second development to know if we go from very good to epic.
  7. Bigbald
    Fair to say the 12z suite RGEM, Canadian, GFS, Nam are in lockstep with orientation and axis of the first wave (?).
  8. Bigbald
    I cant think of a greater setup for a 10 day stretch of winter in my lifetime if this were to verify, when you factor the snow AND cold. All that snow would stay put for a long time. Lucky its a dry snow.
  9. Bigbald
    Oh my lawd, Canadian would be multiple 15 plus inches for east TN once adjusted for snow ratio
  10. Bigbald
    I'll count the CMC a win merely bc it's not OTS. Maybe we can end up splitting the difference, get that low back on the coast and moving northwest.
  11. Bigbald
    Wow, that GFS run might be the coldest 8-10 day stretch of weather I can remember seeing modeled for SWVA. We don't break freezing from Jan 13ish to beyond Jan 22ish
  12. Bigbald
    Wasn't it showing a stalled out front with waves riding 3-4 days ago, is this a return?
  13. Bigbald
    Carver, I am sure you have seen this graphic, wonder what the projection for 2001-2030 are at for ktri. 7 inches? We getting halved from 9.2?
  14. Bigbald
    Ski resorts, particularly Snowshoe, have one of the best looking early January forecasts I can remember.
  15. Bigbald
    My god what a storm track for east Tennessee on 18z. 4 days of solid snow, this easily could of been one for ages.
  16. Bigbald
    You would have to be a mad man to bet against a cutter this year
  17. Bigbald
    In the broader context of warming temperatures I hope this isn't a foreshadowing of what typical winters will begin to look like. We aren't even close to an event here in northeast TN, and we really haven't had anything to track all winter. I can recall alot of crappy winters having a lot of trackable events that didn't pan out for one of the billion variables, but we still had things to follow.
  18. Bigbald
    A sign of the times when 1 inch slush/melt snow here in Wise ellicits all kinds of phone calls this morning. Pretty bleak compared to what we used to routinely get up here.
  19. Bigbald
    When do we get to trend from a moderate snow depiction to greater and greater amounts? Why must it always be the opposite.
  20. Bigbald
    I was afraid the Cutter parade might return from last night's 0z gfs run.
  21. Bigbald
    Should of been more honking for this event given how cold conditions are.
  22. Bigbald
    Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data? If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri? If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks
  23. Bigbald
    Will be some nail biting for Michigan, Indiana. But they are in play for a whopper of a storm.
  24. Bigbald
    Sorry had the 18z in toggle. It is east of 18z.
  25. Bigbald
    GfS is a western jog as expected. Given the fact we have 5 days left about the only place I'd be feeling good about is western Illinois/mizzou.
×
×
  • Create New...