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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    When do you think we could have a good handle on the vort pass and backend snow situation? It seems that the models that are the best with the WAA for my area sorta miss with the backend and vise versa. Want to make an updated forecast for my friends and family but am waiting for more agreement on that last part, and thanks for the post!
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Since you’re giving out snowfall ranges for various places do you think the Ashburn/Reston area should be in a solid 6-10 range? Seems like at this point the WAA should get us well and if we’re lucky with the coastal we could her higher end amounts
  3. SnowenOutThere
    either way it still gets us to 7ish inches by the end of its run with at least 2-6 more with the coastal fluff so not even a bad run verbatim, but is a little worrying if it nudges any further north
  4. SnowenOutThere
    I know its the NAMs at range but should NOVA be worried about the weird dry slot it shows with the WAA?
  5. SnowenOutThere
    As someone who is that age I don’t remember anything much before 2016 besides glimpses of storms. I vaguely remember the 2016 blizzard but wish I could recall more about it. The Monday system may be the first time I can truly remember getting 10+ inches of snow (ig Jan 2019 counts too but yk what I mean)
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Fwiw NAM 3k is slightly colder than the 12z upstairs
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Seems to have a more expansive dry slot which isn’t great
  8. SnowenOutThere
    At hour 60 the sleet line is ever so slightly south (from cutting through fx county to being just south)
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Hell of a way to get .1! As someone too young for the 2014 squall this was a first time thing. Should have a timelapse up later
  10. SnowenOutThere
    That was incredible! Thunder snow, watching the clouds come in, the progression from melted flakes to a snow globe, this may be one of my favorite winter events ever.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Heard a rumble of thunder, sadly not snowing as the cell that produced it slid to my north. Reminds me a lot of summer
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Remember we only use 10-1 when it shows the most snow
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Is anyone out near Winchester or in that band able to confirm if its 1. actually reaching the ground 2. rain or snow
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Significantly so too, some of the forum even gets fringed
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Light snow hour 198
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Looks more snowy than it’s 12z run so far
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Meanwhile CMC out to hour 72 has a slightly more amped S/w but better confluence than it’s 12z run
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Not horrible verbatim but if it trends any further north it’ll get ugly for most of forum where people live
  21. SnowenOutThere
    The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite
  22. SnowenOutThere
    How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north)
  24. SnowenOutThere
    A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind!
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then.
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