SnowenOutThere

Just wait till you see the post I made just before this one! My best analysis yet I dare say.

Biggest issue I've seen no one discuss about the storm shifting backwards is that it'll be getting further into sun angle season. C'mon guys we used to be a proper forum.

Man, I have gotten nothing done today. Going to take a step back for the night now that all the runs are done.

Adding onto your post with a real example of the 18z Euro and that setup across Mappy and PSU land.

Even better sounding to the south where there's more moisture. It really is uncanny how this sounding is nearly the exact same as that GFS run of the 60 inch PA storm for this time period.

Yep. I think it does have a better NS come in afterwards though. As a slightly bantery side note I always dreamed of becoming one of the posters that you or some other respectable mets/posters would agree with so thanks! Made my day lmao

We've lost almost 12 hours on it according to the Euro which only goes to make the forecast even further out in time

It also seems pretty much aligned to the Euro OP as well. Would think that from days 4-6 they combined would be a pretty good duo.

Main change is that its a bit less intense but longer duration snowstorm. Has snow all the way back to Texas at the end of its run We already have a general 4-8 otg by that time too. I also think that it would come up the coast some.

Precip panels aren't out yet but surface visibility def shows a heavy snowstorm

From vort maps I expect the Euro to be at least a solid hit

Has the NS lobe overtop the low that wasn't there in 12z. Not sure if it'll phase or crush.

Oh yeah its coming East. Thank god

So far the Euro seems to be largely holding with its handling out west through hour 88

Please refer to my post back on page six. Went over all that stuff there. The GFS fails to eject it due to destructive interference with the NS vorticity caused by another storm out in the Pacific. The Euro has that vorticity instead phase and amp the SW.

So far through hour 64 the Euro seems unchanged with its handling of the SW and vorticity related to ejecting it...

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong with its handling of the SW to get a big storm.

Would suck to have a repeat of Feb 20th.

It'll be a long week. Just have to hope that we don't lose the SW. Otherwise its an even longer week with the NS.

Manges to get us our consolation prize with the NS scooping up the leftover moisture. Which, while obviously not what we want, is nice to have as a backup.

GFS is a step back from 12z as it doesn't have any real interaction between the NS and SW. However, as mentioned in my post still a chance we get a storm from the NS if it dives enough south. As for the RGEM and NAM they both look good I like them as they have NS energy entering into where it may capture the SW like every other model.

It still moves the SW energy east so I'm okay with it existing for now. Just need to get that piece east to get a storm... speaking of which so far the GFS is not seeming too enthused.

Yeah, I think it helps us not worry too much about suppression as that needs both phases to go perfectly. As of now we just need to pray the first one can work to some extent (or it gets kicked east on its own thanks to some other thing) if it doesn't I don't have high hopes.

I think I'll stay local with this one and try to get UVA in it's light pollution glory.

I've been waiting so long to get a snowstorm man. I barely even remember 2016 so I need this as it'll be my first real storm memory.