WXNewton

18z EPS... Tick back from lunchtime but still solid looking.

no words needed...

It gets exciting when the models start to roll and you don't have to wait long to see the new results.

ICON with subtle shift south with the snow/sleet.

I find this pretty interesting between the Euro and GFS, here are the 48 hr trends for both models. The Euro has been most consistent with the placement of the gulf low and overall orientation of the moisture. You can clearly see the GFS is trending to show a very similar look to what the Euro has shown for days. Both models are also expanding the precip shield more and more each run while also depicting a colder and more expansive side to the wintry precip. I think these two models will be showing very similar solutions with in the next three cycles. Right now the GFS is going towards the EURO.

I'll take panel 15 and let the next 5 winters ride.

Just think...by tomorrow morning at this time we can all start to get nam'ed together.

Looks like Euro ensembles at this point is our best bet. I feel like in these situations is going to be hard to avoid some sleet and possibly some freezing rain here. Even the big storm of December of 2009, I had 8 to 9" in my area with sleet and freezing rain, while Lenoir up to the mountains just got crushed with snow. I think all in all it could be a major winter storm that shows a little bit of everything for us. I do like seeing the ensembles get a little bit colder each run. I think we will see precipitation expand further north and west as we get closer to the storm, not necessarily A further north track just a depiction of moisture expanding further north and west and if we can combine that with colder temperatures each run we should transition more to a snow and sleet storm.

Nice uptick from this evenings 18z. Trended colder and more moisture this run. Seems like the OP is more amped than the EPS and warmer, maybe signs that it could adjust some to colder and more snow to meet the ENS.

FRAM totals on euro. If this plays out like this, I guess it would be some of the most significant ice accumulations since 02.

UKMET is major East Coast winter storm.

Def. more interaction this run, you can see the energy over the gulf digging more and going more towards neutral. A few more steps like that and i think its headed towards something good. Even if this run went past 120, I believe WNC was about to show more widespread snow. You can see the moisture on the last frame seems to build and expand more north out of SC vs pulling due east.

If anything it's gotten a little better each run.

I just came from Catawba County to Ashe County, starting at about 2,000 ft out of Wilkes County into Watauga County the amount of tree damage all the way up to the Blue Ridge parkway is extensive. I expected to see some damage, but not this bad.

06z EPS looks better than 00z EPS when compared at hr 144, more snow further south and east as well as colder temps. So all and all even though it doesn't go out as far, the EPS looks colder than 00z and more snow with the initial front end. There was still more obviously to come in after hr 144. Also because it was setting up as a colder run freezing rain was further south and east.

The 6z Euro at hr 144 is sleet and heavy freezing rain for many outside of the mtns. If the run were to extend longer WNC was about to transition to a legit deform band that could really do some damage. This seems like the first storm all year that doesn't just rocket out of the area. I think given the look of everything we could be dealing with a major winter storm in parts on NC and SC that has a wide variety of precipitation with temps well below freezing.

Canadian ENS are about the best they have looked, nice uptick for areas around I85/I40 and North this cycle.

EPS had a nice jump in the overall precip shield while keeping temps about the same as 12z. Seems to be a nice look for many areas. The OP is a little juicier than the EPS mean, but they seem to align well with the overall placement of the precip shield and temps seem to be a little colder on the EPS mean than the OP.

Here is the NWS blend of all models snow and ice.

Yes, very nice trends, it really blossoms the precip out of the Gulf on this run and fills in the NW side of the precip shield.

Yes sir it did. Lived in Maiden at the time, and had 3-4" of snow and sleet with a little freezing rain then the next morning about 7 a.m. the upper low built in from the west and by lunchtime we had 9.5-10.5". Then listened to reports coming out of Sherrills Ford to Statesville of foot plus totals.

Yeah I see that now, I didn't let the run finish when I first looked. Seemed like accumulations started a tad earlier this run.

More of a backside to the precip on the EPS this run, maybe picking up on a stronger upper level low tracking through ETN.