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Chicago916

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Everything posted by Chicago916

  1. Chicago916
    I want whatever this experimental Canadian model is smoking.
  2. Chicago916
    I feel that. Today's theme is just minor adjustments everywhere tbh. Still could see a surprise since I think some of the features are still up in the Arctic.
  3. Chicago916
    Looks the same as last run to me
  4. Chicago916
    Was just thinking about all the budget cuts to the NOAA and how it impacts modeling. I wonder what verification scores are now vs previous years (winter and summer comparisons). Feels like modeling is pretty bad.
  5. Chicago916
    So you're saying now until the start of the system it won't continue to baby step better, upping snow totals each new run (jk but I really miss those days)
  6. Chicago916
    Unsurprisingly the GEFS went boom They should just decommission that model...
  7. Chicago916
    Sampling of the Baja low not included in the NAM (doesn't matter cuz it sucks anyways) but good for other models. So that won't explain any changes seen down there. Looks like some sondes made the NAM after all https://x.com/i/status/2014131199120162993
  8. Chicago916
    End result on the EPS looks similar, so wouldn't look too much into that
  9. Chicago916
    When the measly ICON is northwest, bombs away
  10. Chicago916
    Sounds like the Baja Low will be sampled for tonight's 0z runs, so we should have that answer then.
  11. Chicago916
    At 15-1 to 20-1 ratios, I think Chicago gets 20in+ with that run. Certified big dog potential. Everyone's eyes peeled to the Euro soon.
  12. Chicago916
    Um guys. The latest UKIE... Hard to ignore that. 500mb is just crazy. (Ninja'd cuz didn't even see the random lake effect this model loves to always wrongly include)
  13. Chicago916
    I say we give this the ol no hitter treatment for now.
  14. Chicago916
    Recon missions with better sampling too will be super meaningful. Regardless of outcome here, very interesting set-up. The South will get demolished regardless.
  15. Chicago916
    Soooo. We realistically are still too north for the weekend system right? Kinda seems like a northern feature has sped up and is now phasing with the ejected cutoff and pumping up the SE ridge enough to just about get precipitation up this way? Would love an expert's opinion here lol
  16. Chicago916
    Comparing the GFS to all other models for this upcoming storm might be the worst gap I've ever seen. We really need to retire it and invest more into our modeling here ... Oof. Unless it wins a coup and is correct but doubt it.
  17. Chicago916
    As much as I somehow want the weekend storm to trend positively up this way, I'd rather BAM be wrong. I guess we'll see.
  18. Chicago916
    Shame it's forecasted to be cloudy and dangerously cold since there's a great northern lights opportunity tonight.
  19. Chicago916
    Yeah. It's the 2nd worst verification score for medium range models I think. Definitely not believing it's output this model run, but I guess it does show probably the best outcome up here because I doubt anything can overcome high pressure as strong as what's progged.
  20. Chicago916
    Verbatim, if something like the latest Canadian happens, wouldn't the thermodynamics for lake effect be nuclear given the Arctic air mass? Doubt that happens though but the timing of the cold air could allow for that.
  21. Chicago916
    For those that know, the Ragu programmatic ad at the bottom of Pivotalweather will be the death of me.
  22. Chicago916
    Wednesday/Thursday clipper uptrend. Or do we not care cuz it's not a big dog?
  23. Chicago916
    "the week before Groundhogs day IV storm" thread. Too soon for it though. That would be a ton of ice given the cold air mass prior.
  24. Chicago916
    Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. (Peaks at latest gfs model lol is that a triple phaser?)
  25. Chicago916
    Now if we can get another arctic impulse to perfectly hit at let's say Sunday at 7pm that would be great.
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