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Chicago916

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Everything posted by Chicago916

  1. Chicago916
    Models trending this weekend's Northeast snow event a little snowier in the Midwest with the first piece of energy, now showing a small accumulation. Almost looks like the energy is more delayed in handing off to the coastal low. Would think the longer that's delayed the more snow that could be squeezed out in the Midwest? That should have some implications on thermals for the subsequent storm I would think.
  2. Chicago916
    The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways.
  3. Chicago916
    Big dog on the 18z GFS. Who's going to make the channel for it? Lol
  4. Chicago916
    12z EPS seems to still look fine based on mean QPF and low track. Not worth putting much stock into a single run at this point anyways.
  5. Chicago916
    I've still got a feeling the first storm this weekend trends more NW to brush NIL with some moderate snows. That'll then have an effect on larger storm afterwards I would think?
  6. Chicago916
    It would be funny if it verified, but is the CMC trying to resolve a Mesolow over Lake Michigan due to the ULL next Friday? Would be a funny way to transition from near 60F Christmas to 6"+ snow cover on NYE.
  7. Chicago916
    Serious question. What will happen to a MCS (if and when it congeals and moves into NIL) as it barrels into the lake breeze?
  8. Chicago916
    Lake breeze now evident along with the outflow. Once these collide... Boom.
  9. Chicago916
    North moving boundary extremely evident on satellite
  10. Chicago916
    Not sure how well Nadocast does for wind, but definitely has that Derecho look for tomorrow.
  11. Chicago916
    Inb4 Northern Illinois supercells this afternoon.
  12. Chicago916
    And round 2 to follow still in Southeast Minnesota?
  13. Chicago916
    Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630
  14. Chicago916
    Repeat of today this Friday? Looks interesting at least
  15. Chicago916
    Sirens just started in the city
  16. Chicago916
    Well a lot happened since my post this morning. Sheesh. Finally seeing filtered sunshine downtown Chicago.
  17. Chicago916
    If the MCS dies quicker, still decent potential for severe in NIL, but looks very conditional. 12Z HRRR for example. Will need to watch incoming CAMs to see if they follow, and observations.
  18. Chicago916
    KORD office was riding the HRDPS and it looks like it performed very well with this
  19. Chicago916
    Looks like the European model was upgraded, including adding a lot of extended ensemble runs. Will be interesting to see how it performs!
  20. Chicago916
    He was a fantastic UIUC atmospheric sciences professor!
  21. Chicago916
    Tons of hail in Buffalo Grove right now. Ground is fully covered.
  22. Chicago916
    Long range 03z Rap popping some PDS Tor soundings in Chicago Wednesday morning. Something to monitor
  23. Chicago916
    Very late day 2 convective outlook.
  24. Chicago916
    Would be great if the RRFS comes back online soon in time for the upcoming severe event. Seems to be offline still since Friday
  25. Chicago916
    GFS trending in the direction to add to those
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