Northof78

Obs thread started as snow is starting in C/W NJ

Cloudy here, but snow has begun across C and W NJ, were off!

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno STATEMENT FROM BERNIE RAYNO (LOL, I always wanted to write that): I have seen this many times in the past. You ride the NAM on this, it isn't perfect and will likely be overdone in some areas, but overall it will out perform the GFS and EURO. Twitter live at 5:45 am. 4:41 AM · Jan 28, 2022·Twitter Web App

Very large move with the GFS to essentially meet the other models at this point, now just a matter of how clean the storm is or more strung out...but snow is coming...

WS Watches extended west in NJ

Correct, it is cold at 850 as well with our relation to the storm position well to our S/E and with little overrunning lower ratios

With the cold we have here on the backend of a CCB 12-13:1 should be realized

12Z NAM, Kuchera, major storm for almost all on the forum.

Close to 0.9" QPF in NYC of the NAM, with some ratio, should be 10" - 12" in CPK

NAM should be 8-12" for most of the region, outside of C/E LI with more

This and the NAM actually shows low occluding/stalling to our south and fairly tucked, any option obviously is still on the table...tomorrow 12Z should be the runs where we can nail it down

NAM and EURO are almost identical Nam has the low well tucked just E of LI, likely to make landfall in SE MA or the islands....All of Metro 12-24"

Light snow starts Friday afternoon/evening

When the most S/E major model (GFS) has the 6" line running around I-95, with others (NAM, EURO, RGEM) 12" plus...get excited.

At this range for the coast (especially E LI/SE Mass), starting to think mix/rain more an issue than a miss with overall setup

NAM looks like mostly a I-95 & SE event, but could just be random movement

6Z NAM good for a nice 2-4”

This looks like a very nice setup for I-95 and most here...3-5" certainly possible

Seperate thread for that, and that now looks like it could be a 3-5" storm, likely bigger storm that whatever this turns out to be

Real storm to watch is Thursday (anafront wave)

I think this will be the bigger storm over the next week, looks like a nice 2 - 4" for most...other looks offshore

1.2” with mod/heavy snow

NAM well S/E http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Very little sleet with this storm and the thermal profile most likely, either rain, snow, or no for 95% of the precip