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Ephesians2

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  1. Ephesians2
    this\ this is obviously earlier on, but there is MUCH more divergence with the GEFS this run than the past few runs. there are actually some suppressed solutions too. overall it's going to be somewhat north of 18z though. likely axis of heavest accumulations from CHO to EZF.
  2. Ephesians2
  3. Ephesians2
    not loving the trends on the 00z suite so far. GFS looks more like a coastal than a slider, while the numbers looked good there isn't much more room for error left, and coastal influence definitely will hurt in RIC towards Hampton Roads. CMC jumped north 100 miles, now RIC is on the very southern edge of significant snow - it'll be a sleet bomb most likely.
  4. Ephesians2
    CMC is a big jump north. It relegates significant snow north of an axis from about Roanoke to Richmond, VA. Not loving the trends on the 00z suite so far.
  5. Ephesians2
    Much more of a coastal look on 00z GFS.
  6. Ephesians2
    the initial WAA thump was lighter... At 111 total snowfall is around a foot in the Triad before the flip At 108, sleet line to NC/VA border. Taking on a more SW/NE trajectory versus 18z.
  7. Ephesians2
    At 99h, I am not seeing a north trend with respect to the mix line. Precip isn't quite as heavy though... we are not going to see the 2-3' Kuchera totals like last run most likely Biggest shift is it is a bit slower bringing in the precip
  8. Ephesians2
    87h... moderate snow over most of NC... sleet line SLIGHTLY further south than 18z
  9. Ephesians2
    Looking a tad bit slower at 81h
  10. Ephesians2
    That is good to hear ... don't care about being in the jackpot, but was thinking a 100-150 mile shift to the north as has been discussed in this thread would put the freezing rain amounts being advertised in NC right in my backyard - genuinely worrying. I like not losing power for a week with single digit temperatures.
  11. Ephesians2
    It's literally just a copy paste of the most bullish operational models
  12. Ephesians2
    That is absolutely ridiculous. I will be lucky to see half that. It generally seems local TV forecasters are much more responsible. They are more accountable and aren't the sole source of revenue
  13. Ephesians2
    I do NOT want to lose power for a week... if it shifts north 100-150 miles like some are saying in the main thread... I'm kind of cooked I have a feeling though ... going to stock up for long power outage just in case.
  14. Ephesians2
    Are you thinking ice storm potential in Southwest/Central/Southside VA into RIC? Or mostly sleet?
  15. Ephesians2
    some of the individual members on the EPS were genuinely concerning. Not just mixing, but there were a few pure ice storm solutions. I think everyone in this forum would be content with warning level snow --> a couple inches of sleet --> maybe some snow on the backside
  16. Ephesians2
    Healthier precip shield at 84...
  17. Ephesians2
    Next window of opportunity?
  18. Ephesians2
    overheard at grocery store: > "8-10 on Friday and 10-20 on Saturday" > "they're calling it the storm of the century" Now, I wonder what AI slop weather page on Facebook came up with that
  19. Ephesians2
    Compromise between GFS and UKMET/CMC would be ideal
  20. Ephesians2
    Maybe to an extent, but there are definitely are some misses to the South for most of the region on the individual members. Outliers though
  21. Ephesians2
    Not a great shift on the GEFS.
  22. Ephesians2
    Euro had something similar but further south Seems like a weak wave developing along the boundary from Thursdays front.
  23. Ephesians2
    Let's keep it right where it is ... Although there's something to be said for sleet, in that it keeps snowpack around for a while. I got 4" snow and sleet in Jan 2022, and it stuck around for two weeks. Also the last two runs of the (fantasy range) NAM have shown a weak disturbance bringing some snow to the VA/NC border and north on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro, otherwise I wouldn't be talking about it @BornAgain13
  24. Ephesians2
    Last two runs of the (FANTASY RANGE) NAM have shown a disturbance to our south on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro too.
  25. Ephesians2
    also I have 8" on the year and you all have maybe half that, so the likely north trend = reversion to the mean
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