vortex95
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Everything posted by vortex95
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CoastalWx thinks that 57" NW of ORF on the 12z GDPS is "KEWL!"
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Uh-oh, getting a little snarky. And I am doing volcanic ash advisories, not fire wx!
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One gets a 20"+ storm and still?
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Clippers this season have solidly over-performed, and some odd events that were surprisingly good considered the flow. Recall that weekend event in Jan where there was no sfc low, and broad SW flow aloft w/ SSW winds at the sfc, and several inches occurred in interior SNE. Savoy MA had 10" which is the biggest non-LES/OES snowfall I can recall for a nothing-burger system and winds blowing the "wrong way" the entire time! CoastalWx always wants HRs. Well, that's not how it works!
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The Feb 1989 event? Ugh. That was bad. Coastal NJ did well, and so did SE MA and Cape Cod.
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I said the same thing for the 1986-87 winter here, the only "good" one in the "worst period EV-A" for SNE snow (1984-85 to 1991-92). I ended up w/ something like 68" in Woburn MA (about 14" above avg), However, it could have been well over 100" (unheard of at the time) if my area didn't miss the two Cape Cod-only blizzards in two weeks at end of Jan-start of Feb!
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And a 1 in 10 shot CoastalWx will be satisfied w/ his total Weymouth snowfall!
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And what about the ECMWF AI?
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But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.
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Hearts On Fire?
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Great analysis, and I learn a new vocab work..."DYAD!"
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One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events. A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream. This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment. It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w. Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.
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No, his classic line when I would downplay an event, he'd always go, "WE'LL SEE!!!"
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Drago pseudo-quote? If this storm does not pan out, Scott will have to get into his car, rev the engine and burn rubber, blast "NO EASY WAY OUT," and vent his frustration, peppered by flashbacks to the good ol' days like March 31-April 1, 1997!
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I worked w/ him at WSI for 10 years. Ultimate uber snow weenie and the cross-talk/discussion we had on wx are legendary!
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Now THAT is EPIC! Fits him perfectly w/ his record # of posts on this site!
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I have no idea what ACWATT means. It is an AmrWx slang only thing???
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It's done some odd things recent years. It used to be best w/ TCs, then not so good, as one example. The tweaks and upgrades they do it it, it fixes some things, while it breaks other things. It's a constant battle w/ models to try to improve them. And it gets non-linear harder to keep a balance as they become more detailed and resolute!
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As it stands right now. How much time do we have for the proverbial "CoastalWx TICK" N trend? LOL.
