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vortex95

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Everything posted by vortex95

  1. vortex95
    Great video, but can Timmer please stop inventing hype words for wx -- "water trumpet?" I storm chased most years 1992-2016 and know many in the storm chase community, and I have never heard a tornado or waterspout put that way. Cheesy media hype nonsense. Put a different label on something common/mundane to "sell" it more. And really, mets and wx enthusiasts can figure out easy what "water trumpet" means, but the general public? Some will go, "is that a new wx phenomena!?" And such can work it way into mainstream media. I recall on WTOP they used "rain bomb" one time to describe a tstm heavy rain event, and I cringed.
  2. vortex95
    Don't say that around @weatherwiz! May I remind you, this is a New England forum, not a Weymouth one!
  3. vortex95
    Cyclic tornadic storm as well. Second one over the bay.
  4. vortex95
    Part of the problem is that you are always IMBY. I seem to recall, "if it is not within 5 mi of Weymouth, MEH!" You can't think like that for tstms, and even synoptic-scale R/S. You watch, when the next HU hits, you will still find issues. "I was supposed to get 120 mph gusts, and I only got 90!" And yet almost every tree in your neighborhood will be down or damaged and you will have no power for 3 weeks.
  5. vortex95
    The pot calling... "It won't happen" goes far beyond just convection.
  6. vortex95
    Well, you could have fooled me prior to Jan 2026! "It never snows anymore!" said how many times? Even after two 20"+ storms in Weymouth, I still heard complaints!
  7. vortex95
    He has the most posts and complains the most, so he has "earned" it! I worked w/ him for 10 years and he is the uber-est weenie I have ever known when it comes to winter, and he was never shy to tell me "SNE stinks for SVR!" So we have "that kind of wx rapport!"
  8. vortex95
    That's nasty-looking. And a li'l anticyclonic left-mover getting drawn in? All sorts of things going here. Looks more like what you'd see in the Plains!
  9. vortex95
    W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs. Got this reply: RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay. But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes. Important info given it is a new model. Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are. And this prevents more @CoastalWxfrom the "GARBAGE MODEL" label he likes so much!
  10. vortex95
    W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs. Got this reply: RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay. But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes. Important info given it is a new model. Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are.
  11. vortex95
  12. vortex95
    Weather.gov has some issues currently I read in a notice.
  13. vortex95
  14. vortex95
    The "barrier" reigns supreme. I am not sure the global models always fully acknowledge this wind shear barrier, esp. in the longer range. Yes, they may fcst it to wane, but no reason to think it will given how strong El Nino is.
  15. vortex95
    I see you are thinking in the abstract like me, and I did not even think like that here! MSM or random social media hype-master be like: "FIRST TIME EV-A a tornado watch has been issued INSIDE a severe watch!!!"
  16. vortex95
    Got this in College Park MD a short time ago. @CoastalWx can't get anything remotely close to this in Weymouth this year!
  17. vortex95
    Darn those mid level winds! Does not push the precip downwind enough! However, legit supercell passed just N of College Park w/ a ragged wall cloud (pix through the window ).
  18. vortex95
    It may well be still.
  19. vortex95
    The Colesville storm has the "look," like it is ready to go anytime! EDIT: Ragged wall cloud evident seen from College Park.
  20. vortex95
    It can be confusing to the public and emergency management. They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR? Just not very efficient. Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time? This is valid question for the non-met! And what about watch box stats for a given area? Just have two discrete boxes issued at the same time. N area TOR and S area SVR in this case.
  21. vortex95
    That is outstanding low-level shear. "Hockey stick" hodograph at low-levels. 0-0.5 km shear of 29 kt? Wow. SCP 14.8. Mid-level lapse rates not good, but mesocyclone presence can compensate for that if we can get a storm established/persist. Ride any boundaries! And yet the current storm closest to DC just can't do it!
  22. vortex95
    It just seems that it could have been a TOR N side, and the S side a SVR given the tor probs.
  23. vortex95
    Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic. First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box. I don't recall ever seeing this before. Has it occurred though?
  24. vortex95
    "sinkers and floaters"
  25. vortex95
    The "barrier" is in place.
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