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vortex95

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Everything posted by vortex95

  1. vortex95
    Missing the heaviest part of the line, but getting some +CGs in the rear close-by makes my day! You can get some really odd acoustics! Also, the many times a +CGs is a long CC bolt at first, and then it comes down, so the flashing can be atypically extended. That's how you know many times it is a +CG even if you do not see the bolts. And I know ppl here know this, but look for the "bright-banding" in the rear of a MCS for +CGs. It's not bright-banding as in wet snowflakes aloft, but it looks the same. Broad 35-45 dBZ area. Typically, the precip is "big drop, steady light rain" under such echoes.
  2. vortex95
    That's good historical info. And to add in, given our standards and practices today, and much better detection/documentation. It is highly likely Cristobal would have never been declared or gone completely undetected in those above mentioned years.
  3. vortex95
    Good info! To quantify it in scale and time is of value. When you look at things enough, like wx patterns for whatever phenomena, it does sink in and provide that met experience that can't taught or trained, you just have to keep doing it yourself repeatedly over time, and keep gathering/gleaning tidbits here and there, so you eventually really do get a "feel" for things subjective and objectivity! And so far, the rule of thumb when it is very strong El Nino and the Atlantic hurricane season is suppressed still "works" and works well! I know it not the best for TC enthusiasts, but at least it was not a surprise.
  4. vortex95
    Well, at least we know nothing has changed for the GFS concerning TCs! However, in this case, it was overdeveloping 95L not in the long-range (7+ days out) I seem to recall it did better in the short-range. I recall last year and the year before, when during the peak season, the MDR was shutdown big time from the SAL/dust/warm temps aloft/TUTTs and/or the ITCZ too far N, even then the GFS was not spinning up TCs. One advantage the global models have is that they know the large-scale synoptic environment well, so if they are not doing much w/ a system, but the short-range or TC models are, that's a red flag as the synoptic environment not favorable (this works best when a system is in its nascent stages). But it seems the GFS can't acknowledge the El Nino-driven hostile conditions in the MDR?, which i odd b/c they are screaming at us w/ that "barrier" of high shear across the nrn part of the MDR.
  5. vortex95
    1983 redux? But that was the year after very strong El Nino. 1982 was very low ACE though (3rd lowest since 1946). S-T-D, how does this rank historically, at least since the satellite era I wonder? Only 3.1 ACE so far (~12% of avg).
  6. vortex95
    Oh, and that far more apparent just on the forums in AmrWx, esp. on the New England group! Never have I seen such EEYORE-type attitudes, even after the two blockbuster snowstorms in New England this past winter, and a rather cold winter to boot (snow cover stuck around a long time even in DCA/BWI). But it had only been 4 yr since the last big snowstorm for the NEUS. You'd think it was 40 years from the posts! And then I have to keep telling so many, you have no idea how lousy it was for East Coast winters 1978-79 to 1991-92! However, two New England direct hurricane strikes during that period, so not all "the worst!"
  7. vortex95
    It's one reason why you can't rely on the wx for steady ratings or interest. You think svr wx season will segue nicely into hurricane, and then into winter storm season (or should I say EAST COAST snowstorm season b/c that's all the seems to matter to the MSM for ratings!), but it isnot always going to cooperate, so you get all these anniversaries or past systems for filler even though they are not multiple of 5 years! There is a lot TC activity going on in the NHEMI currently, but the Atlantic bias is obvious Yet the Atlantic only accounts for about 15% of annual global TC accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). We've been "spoiled" in the Atlantic since 1995 and eventually the AMO is going to flip for a quieter Atlantic. When they will be? Not clear. Last active period before this one was 1926-1969. Prior to that, the 1870s to about 1900. So looking at 30-45 year cycle here?, but we only have two data points in the period of record, so that is far from telling us the extent of what happens for Atlantic TC cycles (up oe down), but we do have a solid idea the Atlantic TC activity does come in multi-decade cycles and know that it is the most variable TC basin in the world.
  8. vortex95
    So 850 is not good enough, have to use 700 for 0 C? Weak! We don't live at 10,000 ft and sfc temps Monday will be at or a bit above avg in the NEUS. This is what happens when you post to just to post for engagement and drive the algorithms for one's site (fluff). What's next, 0 C at 18,000 ft (500 mb)? That would be something as it is almost *always* 0 C or below at this level, but prey on the ignorance of the public for clicks/likes! At least 0 C at 850 has some sfc implications, as you can get S/IP at the sfc!
  9. vortex95
    As usual, the GFS overdevelops the Cabo Verde wave coming up. ECMWF looks a lot more reasonable. The real question is can it stay intact through the strong wind shear barrier that exists on the N edge of the MDR. These waves start out ok well E, but once they gain a little latitude farther W, quite hostile conditions.
  10. vortex95
    Yes, big +CGs N side of the Beltway a few hours ago! House shakers!
  11. vortex95
    The video headline is misleading. Tornadoes are not "rare" in NY or DE. They occur every year.
  12. vortex95
    The warm front "connection" again! But this time it should bodily move N and not hang out along the S Coast.
  13. vortex95
    No MCS "robbing" things this thing given the SW flow for Sunday @CoastalWx take note. But he will still find something wrong! Svr risk looks interesting Sun b/c strong SW flow this time of year is not as detrimental from the marine infection due to warmer SSTs. Very strong 250 jet over the region (100 kt +). The flared appearance of the storms on the HRRR S of LI is promising.
  14. vortex95
    I think 8/20 starts the "peak" of the ATLC season, and goes throug 9/10. ACE is only 16% S-T-D.
  15. vortex95
    I know "soaking" is subjective, but generally I think "1-2" widespread" is a good min criteria. Although definitions are fluid here b/c of the use of "STEIN!"
  16. vortex95
    If it was just a bit farther N! That quite impressive for 1013 mb sfc low.
  17. vortex95
  18. vortex95
    "Soaking rainfall?" Looks like the 7-10 split ern and cntrl sections of the region.
  19. vortex95
    "Bow to me faithfully!"
  20. vortex95
    You may want to check the 18z RRFS MPAS, you know. the one you can't whine about b/c you already said that the operational one only had a FV3 core.
  21. vortex95
    So based on what occurred. I think the 5% tor risk was realized and the 18z IAD RAOB told the story. Once again though, the bay and the Delmarva played a big role I think. There were several storms early on over the Delmarva, and maybe they laid down subtle boundaries and interacted w/ any bay breeze boundaries, so when the Colesville weak supercell arrived on the scene (you can trace it back to the DOV tor), it intensified quickly. Actually looking at the radar loop, there were two waves of storms over the Delmarva. First was around noon and then another close to 4pm. Looking at where they fired, it appears there was some kind of boundary N-S over cntrl DE. Also, there were several cells ahead of the main line that merged in, and cell mergers can lead to tornadogenesis. Radar loop attached.
  22. vortex95
    WCWGTH??? https://x.com/EODWX5/status/2090567005967393127 Dover DE spinner today. Classic "forward flank" tor. Happens sometimes w/ HPs. To see these you have to be right up in the notch.
  23. vortex95
    Looks like a classic "forward flank" tornado. You get these w/ HP supercell sometimes. You can see the tor is just ahead of the heavy pcpn area. I bet it got completely rain-wrapped shortly after this pix was taken.
  24. vortex95
    I don't know, warmer SSTs w/ time should lead to less marine "infection" for more SNE tstms!
  25. vortex95
    Wow, I am surprised it was that visible given the strong HP nature of the supercell there, but if you get real close right up in the inflow notch, you can spot HP tors, but it is often very risky. I wonder if anyone got video of the DOV tor. Same deal. "Almost" a "wedge!" I say that in jest b/c many like stating a tor is a wedge even when it isn't!
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