vortex95

I don't sugar coat things for CoastalWx.

Flush your DNS cache and reset your IP on my PC. It can be done from the command line prompt in Windows. Google it, it is easy. After doing it, reboot.

Going back a bit, I was talking about PWM record high tides on a post. I got an updated table from GYX (attached). Some interesting items that I learned. Storm surge and storm tide are 2 different things, but we often use them interchangeably. Storm surge is the water height deviation from atmospheric phenomena in itself, nothing else. Storm tide takes into account everything, the atmospheric contribution, monthly astro tides, the 19 year tidal epoch, coast rise/drop, and anything else that may influence a tide height. In the NEUS, we use storm tide the most b/c we have 2 high tides a day and our tidal ranges are high. Along the Gulf Coast, storm surge used most often b/c there is only 1 high tide a day and the tidal range is low. For PWM, 3 of the 5 highest storm surges are not even in the top 20 highest storm tides, so that shows how one is not necessarily related to the other. For proper historical scaling and an objective meteorological POV, storm surge is what one would use b/c that has only one factor. For storm tides, one may note that we've had 5 top ten tides in the last 8 years. But that is not a level playing field. PWM sea level has risen about 8" in 100 years, and more than half of that is due to local land subsidence.

I know the site admin. They will add RRFS but have to get the NAM off first b/c processing power is currently limited for their network.

What's wrong w/ CoD? I haven't had any issues on the site recently.

Oh I know the media is what it is and the business model. It doesn't do very good service to wx science and the like though. As mets/weenies though, we should care! Anything the atmosphere dishes out impressive no matter when or where is of significance. And we can convey that to ppl not mets or not in the know that things are not always what they seem. I have found many ppl suspect this or that about wx and can't get a straight or clear answers, and they have no idea who to ask or where to starts b/c the shear amounts of info out there and endless opinions and conjecture! Ppl like to be validated when they have practical suspicions or wonder a lot, and then hear something closer to the real deal.

Scott's favorite jam from 1987!

SWE's? Only thing I can think of for a wx acronym is "snow water equivalent!" LOL.

Actually, is "flash flood watch" a discrete product anymore? Recall a few years ago they removed a few types of products (Blizzard Watch was one) b/c it was getting to be too many product types. "Flood watch" may be the all-encompassing standard now? Given the antecedent very dry conditions and low water levels, again, I find a flood watch here a little much.

Well, this makes a point in a way. What the media (or general public) *thinks* (or believes) and what actually *is* in reality are often two different things, and wx is loaded w/ misconceptions. and egregious beliefs.

Correct, but as I mentioned in a previous post, there is a world outside of DCA-BOS. The E Coast bias the media has when it comes to wx is obvious. Yes, more ppl live here, but that shouldn't no matter in the grand scheme of things when talking about wx itself. The atmosphere has no bias as to what area it impacts or not or when.

Snow New England below 5000 ft is practically unheard of late June into July. MWN biggest snowfall in the summer is 4" on 6/30-7/1 1988. I recall PL on MWN in July 1996. I am talking about meteorological significance/anomaly, not what moves the public needle. These are 2 different things. Location on the globe is irrelevant in the large pix. The MSM often conflates/confuses meteorological significance w/ societal impact. These two are not always directly correlated. Case in point, the CoastalWx 8 hr commute "at least I got to listen to the draft" Dec 13, 2007 event. MEH 4-8" snowfall, but the timing was the worst, and in their grand infinite wisdom, officials decided to let everyone out at noon as the S+ was in full swing. Among the worst SNE gridlocks ever, but a MEH meteorological event.

Not this late this low in elevation for sig amounts. It's rare. Don't conflate flakes in the air w/ 20"+! LOL. We are talking almost July here, and sig CONUS snowfall even at higher elevations is pushing it. Early June it can do it, and by mid August it can as well (see GTF in Aug 1992), but that window last week of June to early Aug, it is very difficult.

It seems overdone. The entire area is in severe level drought, so that significantly mitigates flooding b/c rivers are streams are low. Yes, any heavy rain in a short time can cause localized flooding, but that par for the course in a metro area b/c of the concrete jungle. IMHO, they bar appears to be lowering w/ time as to what is considered "flooding." B/c a few underpasses flood, does that verify as a flash flood? Some underpasses *always* flood even w/ modest heavy rainfall from a tstm. That's more of a drainage or local infrastructure issue than a meteorological one! See what I am getting at here? It is not hard to verify such a watch if the bar is being lowered or you consider any significant ponding of water a flood. The flood watch was likely issued b/c it is DC, which it is obvious there is a bias for more watches/warnings here, but also due to the 250th events. I get that from a social/political/economic POV, but objectively, it is not following overall meteorological risk or science well. Noting stands out for this evening for significant flash flooding, HRRR/RRFS show a few local spots 1-2" this evening, but they are largely E of metro. Watches are typically issued based on a minimum coverage of the hazard expected. This does not meet such criteria for flooding IMHO, esp given the antecedent very dry conditions, which is a big deal when it comes to flooding risk and extent. Case in point, when Floyd ran up the E Coast in Sep 1999, excessive rains in VT of 4-8" caused only moderate flooding. When Irene did the same in Aug 2011, that same 4-8" resulted in near recorded flooding. Why? B/c the summer of 2011 was one of the wettest on record here, and the summer of 1999 was among the driest.

Unclear yet the exact timing of when the ridge breaks down/retrogrades to the W somewhat, but it should happen by early next week at the latest IMHO. Models have shown this for several days now. These NW ring of fire pattern can be quite good. If we can get a solid EML here, that means big potential for overnight convection. One thing I have noticed, overnight convection when an EML is present, the LTG is often wild, not unlike what occurs in the Plains/Midwest b/c the EML is a semi-permanent feature spring-fall here.

Do you mean 1995? That's when BOS hit 100 for the first time since July 21, 1977 (102 that day). It took that long for the UHI to catch up so they could reach 100 again. The temp sensor was moved from tucked back near the WSFO at Logan to the middle of the runways surrounded by water on 3 sides in the late 70s. July 14, 1995 was the 100 in BOS. July 15 is when CT tied their all-time record high of 106. In between this early on the 15th, the WxWiz and CoastalWx "fantasy" derecho occurred in NY and western New England. Easily the worst derecho in the last 50 years for the NEUS. https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

For the talk and hype about the upcoming heat, it is really will be confined to the Midwest to New England and TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Pretty tame for temps the other 70% of the CONUS this coming week. See 850 temp anomalies for the ECMWF valid 00z 7/2. Point being this is not summer of 1980, 1988, or 2012 wild levels (so far). Not downplaying the heat at all, just keeping things in perspective in the large scale. There is world outside DCA-BOS!

Meanwhile, out West the next 48 hr. -4.7 sigma 500 hgt anomaly w/ this trough. This is impressive S+ even for the Northern Rockies for so late.

Got it. Yes, it looks delayed b/c the ridge builds stronger overall on the E Coast this coming week than earlier models showed.

Road trip for Scott? Of course the MSM will ignore this atypically late season S+ even for the Northern Rockies (up to -4.7 sigma hgt anomaly at 500) and just talk about what has not even happened yet w/ its obvious E Coast bias, rather than talk about what is occurring in the here and now.

Just talking about through the end of this week. It looks interesting by next weekend here on the GFS. ECMWF suggests it would after next weekend. The hot ridge breaks down somewhat on the E coast so stronger NW flow w/ embedded troughs.

I think the tstm/derecho threat will be confined the Northeast. 700 mb temps are too warm for deep convection here. +10 usually caps it off this part of the country, and they get as high as +13 this week and stay AOA +10 thru Fri. 1000-500 thk stays AOA 579 much this coming week, peaking at 583, which is typically too warm a column for tstms unless you have good forcing.

Lest we forget! Washington DC ended a streak of 2867 days w/o 100 F reading on 6/22/2024. This is the 5th longest period on record since 1872. So "we're due" for a big heat wave??!! | Does this mean DMH will be 110? LOL. Actually, did they fix the issue b/c I look at the temps this month BWI vs. DMH, and high temps are close. June 11-12 -- both days 97 at BWI, and 98 at DMH. Still DMH seems to avg 1-2 F warmer for highs overall, but that's a *far* cry from the 5-7 F difference last year and before. BWI would be 97 and DMH would be 104, and that went into the official climate record! It appears now DMH just has the typical city UHI bias. Seems like when they did that construction a few years ago at the Science Center and DMH was offline for a while, it made the heat contamination worse. More concrete walkway all around and a solar farm within stone's throw. Just incompetent planning. It's like all these wind farms, and ground clutter contamination that occurs even far from WSR-88Ds. Take a look at DDC, VNX, and FDR, as examples. It's really bad. Eventually, there is going to come a time when a TOR is missed due to this wind farm clutter and lives lost I'm afraid.

You know it's bad when you try to just click a reaction emoji for a post, and it fails! CoastalWx is just relieved it's not winter currently. He just says "MEH!" to the 3 supercells today in SE NH and NE MA!

Seabrook NH a short time ago. Photo by Rich Hamel. That's about as good supercell structure you will see in the NEUS.