vortex95

IMHO, range should be limited to 12", such as 12-24", for a region/area.

6" or bust for Weymouth!

Will CoastalWx eek out another 6" "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" wet snow pasting? 12z HRRR thinks so! So borderline. The issue is between 850 and 700. Right on the fence for so much of the nrn 1/2 of MA. 1000-850 thickness ok. One thing of note that may make ern MA down to Weymouth a "surprise," the sfc pressure never falls below about 1028 mb at BOS, which very high for a sig snowfall/QPF event. And you can see the sfc high pressure wedge holds strong and tries hard to push SW in ern MA during the entire event. Another thing, such high heights and thicknesses, so more moisture. In fact, the 12z HRRR shows a max of 1.80" rain/LEQ not far S of ORH. That is quite impressive for what amounts to a meager 1019 mb sfc low SE of ACK! And yet another thing, it is quite strong mid-upper level trof (500-250) that passes right over SNE, cold pool and all, and you can see what happens later in the event over ern MA (esp. NE) as the pcpn "hangs back" a bit. Sim IR shows a pseudo-common head. Just sayin' that given high QPF, the ideal track of the 500 trof, and the borderline temps, there could be a "wild turkey surprise" here for more snow than explicitly shown! Edit: And the peak of the pcpn is overnight, which makes an enormous difference for accumulating snow this time of year and give just a few less tenths of a degree to the BL!

And forgettable for CoastalWx as well GHG *yawn*! Worst than 12/12/1992 when he lived in Brockton?! I got 22" in N Woburn that was 100% wet snow, most ever I had seen from single storm.

The big bust PHL-BOS storm! One of the first big mega hype media storm starting 5+ days out I think. I had 22" of wet snow in N Woburn MA w/ crazy vertical accumulations on power lines. Also, first time I noticed when you dig into wet snow that deep, esp. when cloudy, you see a blue tinge from the high moisture content.

Good enough for CoastalWx standards? Reliable report of 5.9" In FIT (not in PNS yet). That is very respectful for such a "minor" event. And now widespread 1/4" glaze in parts of SNE. This seals the pack so it is "protected" a bit longer!

What do all say about the 41" report in Fall River? https://x.com/snewengweather/status/2026098368804487556 I see it plotted on the JDJ map, but it does not seem to jibe w/ surrounding totals. Also, NWS BOX did not included it in their PNS. Looking at the photos, it is a tape measure and those can bend at the bottom against a solid surface, or since several inches of snow was on the ground prior, is that accounted for? This reminds me of the Bridgewater MA 41" report in the Bliz of '05 (I think that was the storm). Every time I brought that up to CoastalWx, he would vehemently deny that actually fell there! LOL.

Thanks, will email WFO GYX for the complete top 20 list of PWM storm surges.

It appears by the end of this year, Rio de Janeiro will be made a TCAC for the South Atlantic Basin. https://x.com/frontierfcst/status/2028252178335310228 Now only if we could get a TCAC for the Mediterranean Sea, which clearly has shown that it has bona fide TCs, along w/ many subtropical cyclones. Geopolitical borders/areas are a construct of human society. The atmosphere does not care one bit about that. It does what it does regardless. This system is I think the strongest Mediterranean Sea TC on record - Ianos Sep 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Ianos tcac.pdf

Yes, March 1997 was cold, windy, w/ a couple of days of decent snow squalls. Lots of low-topped CBs I recall in the distance!

And don't throw in the towel yet for this winter. See 1996-97, which was lame through the end of March, and then one of the best ev-A blockbusters occurred for SNE for April Fool's. That one storm put brought me from an well-below avg snowfall winter to just above avg in one fell swoop. Even CoastalWx was wicked impressed, and it rates as his all-time fav snowstorm!

Sounds like CoastalWx! LOL. Earlier this winter, he went "I AM DONE WITH NNE" b/c they were doing well so early.

I am looking at SNE as a whole. Regardless of what happens for rest of the snow season, all 5 SNE CLI sites will have an avg or above avg winter snowfall, w/ PVD and BDR well above avg. That's how you have to look at it b/c having a "CoastalWx IMBY I want it all" () attitude going to frustrate/disappoint one often! Not every winter is going to be a 1992-93, 1995-96, 2004-05, or 2014-15. I would say earlier in Jan before the first biggie when CoastalWx got 6" and said it looked "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" out there, that said a lot! Little did he know that nearly 50" of "white gold" was coming for Weymouth in the next month! And the two blockbuster snowstorms this winter were rather non-standard meteorologically. The Jan event has among the weakest sfc lows I have ever seen for so much coverage of 20"+, and the most recent storm? Well, I talked about its "weirdness" earlier on this thread. And how about the model forecasts leading up to that storm? What a "coup" for the GFS, and in general, the long and medium range forecasts for all the global models were really bad/inconsistent!

What about winter for Weymouth? Scott doesn't like the TORCH on the 6-10 day! Almost everyone did well this winter DCA-BOS. Not epic levels for snowfall, but *far* better than the previous 4 winters. How many winters has Weymouth had two 20"+ events? Probably can count on one hand. So I don't want to hear it Scot!!

That's a good point. That table is not updated as the paper it was taken from is from Dec 2013. Do you have the storm surge for those days in Jan 2024?

Atypically sharp/confined big S+ area, given the center passed just outside 40/70. The screwy 500, as noted in a previous post, probably resulted in this. The 4" area DC area S and SW is overdone. DCA only had 1" for the event. 3" nrn suburbs.

Gust 91 mph IOSN3 and 94 mph Seabrook. "Double" high tide at BOS on the gauge and it was fortunate the the storm tide did not coincide w/ high tide. It was so flipped/wrapped up, NYC got 20" snow on a NW. 7"+ rain total in SW ME which is an enormous rain total for a single storm in the winter month NEUS. The CAA pattern was whacked w/ temps dropping sharply on the S Coast as winds shifted to the S! CoastalWx liked the snow squalls all over the place for two days after the above as the upper low stalled right over the region! I thought t was as Shapiro-Keyser cyclone (T-bone frontal fracture), which are rare in the NEUS, but I came across the paper recent and it was some weird hybrid thingee! I attached the paper from GYX. Look at the sfc analyses in the paper for the evolution of the sfc low. Went from N-S to W-E axis in short order ("instant occlusion"). Also, on the last page, a list of the top 17 storm surges at PWM. I thought the Bliz of 78 was PWM's highest, but 4 exceeded it and 2 others tied it. ta2013-03.pdf

Yes, pattern got blocked up sending all systems S of SNE.

Confirmation bias, one of the most common logical fallacies and *rife* in society, as has always been, but the age of information overload has exacerbated it.

Thanks for the info/input. The 2/2/1976 storm, yes 957 mb at CAR is their lowest pressured on record. BOS had 965 mb for its second lowest on record (has this been matched or exceeded since?). Bliz of 93 was about 963 mb when it passed over central MA (up from 960 mb peak over the Mid-Atlantic). What is the "OV Blizzard?" The Feb 1976 one? The Jan 2018 blizzard offshore SE of ACK was 950 mb. I seem to recall in the New England Wx Book (Ludlum) stated a storm SE of ACK in the mid 20th century was 947 mb. The "CLE Superbomb" Jan 1978 lowest was 956 mb in Mt Clemens MI. The New England non-tropical pressure record is 955 mb at BID set on 3/7/1932. And Canton NY had 955 mb in a Jan 1913 storm. These are the lowest non-tropical pressures for the CONUS, although very close is 955.2 mb at Bigfork MN set on 10/26/2010. The

So did the high winds knock the ratios down as expected? Never had realized that until it was brought up leading up to this past storm.

You get *that* much "mashed potatoes," that's whats going to happen. Not often you get so much snow that is wet/high LEQ for the duration of the storm. Same thing happened in the DC area for the storm last month (plows getting stuck/equipment breaking), but for a different reason. 6" of snow, followed by 2-4" of PL, then a seal coast of FZRA! Then wicked cold after. It turned into a glacier quickly ("snowcrete" came up as a term, new one for me!) and made snow removal unusually difficult. This is why I say that I would take 3 ft of fluff over 6" of mashed potatoes any day, at least when it comes to overall impact and the hassle of driving in it and cleaning it up!