Ed, snow and hurricane fan

101*, the forecast tomorrow, ties a 1902 record in Houston. 'Luckily', dewpoints mix down to 70* keeping us from a heat advisory. Houston did all of 2021 w/o reaching 100*. Larry Cosgrove, retired met, thinks 1980 and 2011 are analog years for Texas, both were disasters, the 2011 wildfires left, literally, thousands homeless. You can still see some of the burnt trees near Bastrop driving from Houston to Austin. Austin had fires in the hills just outside of town, more people, another 2011 could burn a lot of homes there.

I am not sure a storm forecast to affect the US the week before Memorial Day, when the Euro had Agatha and was fairly close on the vorticity E of it then developed. Few years back, now Dr. Papin (I think it was him) suggested the GFS had issues with latent heat transport, making it prone to spurious development near Central America. As long as a few (not many) Euro ensembles are showing it, it isn't impossible. Just doesn't seem likely.

NWS has 100*F forecast Friday and Saturday, 96* tomorrow and then rising. Normal enough in June, I suppose, further from the coast, but 101* ties the local Houston record 11th-13th Larry Cosgrove, retired met, on Facebook, is comparing this Summer to 1980 and 2011. 2011 was the big Bastrop fire, other fires near Austin, and fires near Possum Kingdom Lake. I remember the Bastrop fire (still see the burnt trees driving to AUS), the dry but breezy backside of TS Lee downed a powerline somewhere.

Wondering if anyone has PPV weather to see the GEFS control run. The op on multiple runs seems to keep anything that would try to develop too close to land to do much, a lot of ensembles again seem more enthusiastic, wondering if this is the perturbed initial conditions or resolution at work. (AccuWeather had only the Euro control run of the ensembles on PPV ~10 years ago, and on the same ICs, resolution does make a difference). Oh, bargain priced model service? WxBell had great graphics but I had a new subscriber price which ran out long ago.

Done.

I would if I knew how to do it. Should have PTC1 and Alex in the thread title.

The GEFS are doing what they were doing for the supposed pre-Memorial Day storm. I am personally not getting too excited yet.

Why the doppler was developed. A TorWarn based only on rotation may not verify, but more lead time than waiting for a clear hook echo on reflectivity or spotter or law enforcement reports of TOG.

PTCs are new and the whole point, they can have watches and warnings before there is a TC, rather than not issuing a warning until the system is 3 hours offshore. TS force winds (gales) do look like they may verify, whether it stays a PTC or becomes a TS.

Because of the shear and the likelihood any LLC will be chasing the MLC, medium steering is better than the consensus, IMO

When they go to the secret track for SHIPS (the model consensus, not medium steering) is when they are close to pulling the trigger. Not there yet,

I just did.

Verbatim, a TD or PTC, but serious rain.

When he was a doctoral student, he was a red tagger here. He is still on Twitter, but he doesn't identify his employer. But his name shows up in TC discussions, originally as a second name/apprentice, but he now issues forecasts and discussions alone.

I suppose because of his govt duties, Papin is no longer an active poster?

Not naming names, but I hope for not just the one Florida red tagger in here. Mods/admins can remove this post if needed. I'm not everybody's favorite poster nor can upload moving gifs from Tropical Tidbits.

I think unless NHC/NOAA show real skill a probability scheme, maybe a near normal, 33% and 66% above and below normal should be official outlooks. Picking named storms/hurricanes/major, even in a range, implies greater predictability than actually exists.

Not symmetric before Florida, wrapping in dry air to the center after Florida, when it would have the winds to be named. Depending on how NHC defines hybrid, it flirts (over 50 knots on a 12 km model) with being a hurricane off the East Coast. 39 knots on model at 114 hours, post Florida.

GFS keeps the slop gyre cranking into fantasy range, the not exactly same vort of Agatha, a Pacific system, and maybe a BoC system. (It moves into land quickly). The EPac is prior to resolution truncation.

How can you win going high when everyone is a variation of going high and people will win or lose by 1 NS or H, I think being alone going low is the winning move. Like using random pick for Power Ball (not that I have purchased a tax for the statistically challenged in a while), the odds of it picking truly random numbers so a winner isn't splitting with others is better than lucky numbers, which probably aren't unique.

I am purposely using the Price is Right strategy... Doesn't mean dull, Andrew was a warm ENSO low numbers year...

New Euro doesn't quite close off a low, PWAT and even shear looks less prohibitive than yesterday's 12Z, but the shear across the Northern Gulf is >40 knots at 240 hours. Edit to Add, some GFS ensemble support.

9 NS, 4 H 1 M

I suspect the reason Texas has never had a Cat 5 is not a shallow subsurface meaning very low OHC, I think it is strong storms would start entraining downsloping air off the Chihuahuan desert highlands. If not for that, SSTs would support more than Cat 4. (Now, if things like the Gulf's average SST's do rise w/ climate change, maybe not even dry air could stop a smaller storm, but I wonder if warmer SSTs would cause warmer upper level temps with time, keeping instability from rising as quickly)

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity. A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes. I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.