same here, I’m due south of u. NWS thinking lines up with what you said
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through this morning, the main factor here is dry air. Dewpoint
depressions still around 15 to 20 degrees are present in the
area with exception towards Eastern Long Island where dewpoint
depressions are 10 to 15 degrees. Likewise, cloud bases are
lower towards Eastern Long Island and low clouds are more
expansive there. This is where snow is expected to begin first
this afternoon.
Highest snowfall amounts relatively speaking are across Eastern
Long Island, 2-3 inches. These were slightly adjusted downward,
more so for NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT which
are expected to have less than 1 inch of snow. These locations
have forecast dewpoints that are near 15 degrees or less, still
presenting quite a bit of low level dry air that will really
limit the snow.