Rmine1

Been offline, mood seems awfully dour in here. Scared to go back and see what I missed. I’m just east of the Sag and still under a BW. Hopefully it holds

Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 NYZ078-080-282200- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- 959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are likely at times.

I’m awaiting the mix, dry slot(she said) next

Sag east woof

Exactly

Ugh. I’m 54 and have two boys. Couldn’t imagine the loss

Sorry for your loss

Thrower! Keep it clean

Kudos to USCG, and thank you for the education

Greatest movie ever

OBS thread gonna be nuts. When do we start it?

Let us decide

Didn’t they do away with “Blizzard Watch”? Only warning? Think might be warranted for Suffolk tomorrow if everything holds serve

Good trends for all, from insane to a good storm location dependent. Best part? Cold, cold, cold. Removal will be easy, wind aided

This is a family sub forum! Watch the language please

Sustained, not gusts

I think upside risk western half of the island.

I’m thinking 8-12” for our nape of the neck

You’re as good as your last trade is my rule of thumb and he was dead on for our last storm

When FF Hutton talks, people listen

Watch your tongue, lol. They’ll freak reading that

Waiting for “mixing along the coast”

Local news starting to hedge themselves, “hit or miss”

NWS Upton noting the east shifts in their AFD. I love the very last line LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There remains the potential for a strong winter storm to impact the region from Friday night through Saturday night with heavy snow and strong winds. That being said, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as all of the 12Z globals have shifted east with the low track as well as their ensembles. The 12Z NAM12 was the boldest with a farther west track and the potential for 1 to 2 ft of snow across much of the area. However, the 18Z NAM is an eye opener as it has shifted well east of the area with no measurable precipitation. This scenario seems unlikely at this time. Due to the large uncertainty and bouncing around of the guidance, we are running with a model blend approach. Should this eastward trend continue with subsequent runs, snowfall amounts will trend down. There is a fair amount of complexity to the upper air pattern as multiple pieces of energy upstream come into play with the development and phasing within the longwave trough that is carved out across the eastern seaboard by Friday night. Shortwave energy is tracking down from the Northwest Territories of Canada, the PAC NW, and even north of the Great Lakes. This interaction and where a cutoff low develops seems to be causing the large differences in the guidance. Once again, there is agreement overall in an eastward shift, but due to the complexity mentioned, overall confidence remains low with this forecast. Liquid equivalent amounts range from one-quarter to one-half across the western half of the forecast area (Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, SW CT), to around an inch across far eastern LI and southeast CT. This would produce warning level snows from the Hudson Valley and NYC metro east. Once again, confidence is low and this is likely not the final solution. Just to show that there is a wide range in the model guidance, snow probs at the 90th percentile have over 20 inches across eastern half of the area, while the 10th percentile has borderline advisory levels far easter areas. Bottom line, the goal posts are very wide at this time.

No, luckily it’s close enough to be a game time decision