Brian D

After further discussion and clarification, there were 2 events, so 2.0 & 2.7 were correct. 4.7" in 2 days in mid Oct is very significant. It'll be interesting to see what happens later next week. Shades of 2020. Duluth OCT 2020 Date Precipitation (in) Snowfall (in) Snow Depth (in) Max Temp (°F) Min Temp (°F) 2020-10-01 T 0.0 0 50 37 2020-10-02 0.00 0.0 0 42 34 2020-10-03 0.00 0.0 0 44 29 2020-10-04 T 0.0 0 52 29 2020-10-05 T 0.0 0 65 42 2020-10-06 T 0.0 0 68 41 2020-10-07 0.00 0.0 0 63 44 2020-10-08 0.00 0.0 0 62 34 2020-10-09 T 0.0 0 80 51 2020-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 55 40 2020-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 58 41 2020-10-12 1.17 0.0 0 60 45 2020-10-13 0.00 0.0 0 58 39 2020-10-14 0.51 0.0 0 49 37 2020-10-15 T T 0 44 28 2020-10-16 0.01 T 0 41 26 2020-10-17 0.24 1.9 0 35 27 2020-10-18 T T 1 31 23 2020-10-19 T T 1 33 25 2020-10-20 0.47 5.8 6 34 29 2020-10-21 0.02 0.1 4 34 31 2020-10-22 0.32 4.1 4 34 30 2020-10-23 T 0.1 7 34 24 2020-10-24 T T 5 31 21 2020-10-25 T T 4 27 21 2020-10-26 T T 4 28 16 2020-10-27 T T 4 30 13 2020-10-28 0.03 T 4 37 30 2020-10-29 0.00 0.0 2 32 23 2020-10-30 0.00 0.0 2 40 20 2020-10-31 T T 1 46 26 Duluth Oct 2022 so far Date Precipitation (in) Snowfall (in) Snow Depth (in) Max Temp (°F) Min Temp (°F) 2022-10-01 0.00 0.0 0 58 48 2022-10-02 T 0.0 0 58 49 2022-10-03 T 0.0 0 70 51 2022-10-04 T 0.0 0 70 55 2022-10-05 0.03 0.0 0 72 54 2022-10-06 T 0.0 0 54 34 2022-10-07 T T 0 44 30 2022-10-08 0.00 0.0 M 61 32 2022-10-09 0.00 0.0 0 51 32 2022-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 62 32 2022-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 77 42 2022-10-12 0.03 0.0 0 56 38 2022-10-13 T T 0 44 31 2022-10-14 0.13 2.0 2 43 31 2022-10-15 0.23 2.7 2 44 31 2022-10-16 0.02 0.4 0 41 31

12-16" of snow being reported in the western areas of the U.P. so far this morning. Snowing hard.

Looks like Duluth reported a 2.0" and a 2.7" the last couple days. 4.7" would make that the 3rd snowiest event for the first half of Oct. behind 1966 & 1925. Wow! Update: Sent an email to NWS Duluth regarding the amounts reported. That seems way more than anyone else got. Possible they screwed up. Thinking 2.7" is the total overall, as that is in line with all the other reports. Update #2: They responded quick. 2.7" was the total. Hopefully they will make the corrections on there prelim CF6 form, and it should make it into MRCC.

2020 would be an example of cold, snowy Oct followed by a mild winter (even tho FEB 2021 was harsh). But in looking ahead, I see this winter being a lot like what we have seen this Fall. Very mild/cold at times.

So-so. But the amount that sticks is usually quite small, if any, so anything over an inch would be significant. By late Oct, tho, as the average temp is much cooler, then you see more.

UP going to get hit good with significant snows. Weatherbo will be off to a strong start to the snow season. Hope he's doing Ok. Figured he might show up with this event in the works.

Just out of curiosity, I looked around this time frame, and I do see a pattern with a SE ridge, and N Rockies ridge. Low pressure in the C/S Rockies region. Something to watch up this way. Not at all unusual to get good snows at the end of Oct. A little push from the north, and some stubborness in the southeast puts potential my way. This Oct reminds me of 2020. A cold, snowy one. Last year was record highs.

Weenie time

Looked up Duluth's 1 day 2.0 or greater snows. Not very many for the first half of OCT. This was significant.

GFS 00Z run last night has a close representation of my expectation for Halloween. Didn't have approaching system marked, as I didn't think it necessary, as high pressure will be the dominant feature that day, IMHO. Just being quick.

Been seeing snow showers the last couple days. About a 0.1" in town yesterday morning. Just wet today with some early morning mix. Duluth has reported 2.7" total since yesterday, and there are widespread reports of 1-3" across NE MN/NW WI.

For New Years, I have a Canadian front moving across the north with some energy in the south that I think has a chance to move north along the boundary. If not, it'll just get shunted east to southeast ward as high pressure settles in over the Lakes.

Well here are my last forecasts of this year for Christmas, and New Years. For Christmas, looking a little mild with a potential system working through the western sub over the holiday period. This could be centered a bit more north, so we'll shall see how this pans outs.

Hibbing seems to be an outlier. Even Duluth has snow recorded similar to I-Falls. Must an issue with making measurements or something.

Just taking a look at Hibbing, MN records of early Oct snowfall, been a while since even 0.1" was recorded in the first half of the month. It's really chilly this time of year, so we'll see if we get something sticking up there tonight. I-Falls is a different story, they have more recent totals. I-Falls, MN recent early Oct records.

And so it begins.

Duluth made it to #3 warmth yesterday. Was watching my grandsons football game yesterday evening. Awesome weather. Mid 60's in town with 70 at the airport. Duluth, MN 2015 84 1 1995 79 2 2022 77 3 1934/55 76 4 1938 75 5

Very so-so forecast, not much precip, and the high moved in a little quicker.

Computer down for the last few days. Got a new one, and have been busy today updating everything. Pain, but not too bad. Data for Sept showing another warm one. 8 of the last 10 have been that way in recent years with 2014/2020 being near average.

This is Halloween weather. A slap in the face for early Oct. And I have another round indicated around the 10th as per my forecast in the Holiday thread.

Sept ended a little above average here in town thanks to the cooler weather we've had since the equinox. Temp avg was 58.5 (57.8), and precip was average at 3.83" (3.53").

That's pretty cold for down that way. What's the average low suppose to be there?

High of 56 yesterday with 39 this morning in town. Heater kicking in now and then. Airport had 55, and 34 this morning. In the Spring, this feels really nice, but now it's really chilly. lol

3:30 am it 42 in town with 34 at airport. Time for bed

65 yesterday with 39 this am in town. 36 at the airport. Fall is here. Colors are just starting. A little behind in NE MN because of the warmer weather, but with colder am's in store, things will change quickly.