Brian D

Beautiful mid Oct day. Starts in the 30's, and ends around 60 with clear skies.

Hunga Tonga? Not much, but it did put quite a bit of seawater into the stratosphere. Eruption even hit the lower mesosphere. ~10-15% increase in water vapor at that height, if I remember correctly, in the SH. I'm sure it circulated around some into the NH. With volcanoes, it always about ash, and especially so2. This was a new one for scientists concerning seawater injection.

Watching on YT this very moment. Beautiful! As I post this, it's just now starting to break in NM. 10 mins to go in Kerrville TX.

We end the year with front moving through the N areas, and some energy affecting the S areas.

Christmas this year looks interesting as it looks like storm potential developing. BTW, I totally bombed last years Christmas forecast, so hopefully I'll do better this year.

Going to wrap up the year with these next posts. For Pearl Harbor Day, looks like a front moving in with milder temps ahead. Possible energy sliding in from the west ahead/along boundary.

Dry lake air keeping showers at bay just to the south. Winds 20-30 G35. Temps in the upper 40's. Expect things to start to quiet down tomorrow p.m. with a chilly Sun am. Nice day around 60 Sun pm on your way out.

Enjoy? Maybe when it's time to leave. You should be far enough north to stay away from synoptic precip when you get there, but scattered LER might affect you up that way. Very windy couple days on tap. Friday Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Some LER off the lake this morning ,and winds starting to pick up out of the E/NE with approaching system. Not much precip expected my way, just a wind maker. Good to see that many in the W sub should do OK with this system. Been a drier year in the Upper Mississippi region.

When I worked for a landscape outfit many years ago, we did some work for cabins along the shore. Some of the work we did included wildflower gardens. We would seed a large area with mostly annual wildflowers (a few perennial in the mix), and what a beautiful natural collage of flowers would emerge. Even thought about nixing my own lawn, and doing that every year.

I'll settle this! No precip for you all winter. No need to worry about if it's rain or snow.

Seasonal gales are upon us. Bad day for that crew in 1905. Ore boats were a little on the small size compared to today. And as a side note, NWS DLH is officially done with frost/freeze advisories for the season as of today.

Even seasonable temps can produce snow down that way I'm sure, along with wrap around as the front moves through, and temps drop. So I guess we shall see.

My take from my modelling method is suggesting a seasonable to warmer 1st half of Dec with the 2nd half being seasonable to colder. Most of Jan will be seasonable to warmer with the last week turning colder. Most of Feb looks seasonable to colder with the last week being warmer. Even March looks like a decent flux from week to week. This should keep things interesting.

Here's the data for MSP MSP Top 5 10dF+ from 2nd place. (*) = monthly record March 5, 2000 72 +12 April 21, 1980 95 +11* May 31, 1934 106 +14* Nov 29, 1998 62 +10 Dec 1, 1998 68 +11* Dec 6, 1939 63 +10

Here's the results of a project of mine using data from long period stations in our region. I have been working this for a few years, but haven't updated in over a year. Until now, anyway. Finished up with Duluth, and MSP. I'll present more at a later date with combined data from our region overall, as it will take time to updated the many stations. Doing this manually from MRCC data ranking (dense method). Here's DLH. One thing I noticed is the more extreme 1st place rankings. They seem to be a bit more common here in the north. The recent decade is humming along pretty well. Will be interesting to see over the coming years if that continues. Any new solo placements will drop the low hanging fruit in the #5 position, and possibly eliminate 5+/10+ data if it's a good 2nd/1st place rank. Daily Top 5 Here's the list of 10dF+ from 2nd place to go with the chart below. (*) = monthly record. Jan 14, 1894 51 +12 Jan 23, 1942 55 +15* March 17, 2012 75 +14 March 22, 1945 72 +10 March 27, 1946 79 +12 March 28 1946 81 +11* April 27, 1952 88 +10* May 6, 2016 92 +10 July 12, 1936 102 +10 July 13, 1936 106 +10* Dec 31, 1904 49 +11

Prelim data coming in, and chalk up another very warm Sept, driven by the strong + anoms in the W Sub. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Chilly days, and nights now with a freeze warning for tomorrow a.m. in NE MN. That should be the last issuance for us. N WI still may get one yet, but growing season is over around here.

Pretty decent call here.

My 2nd great grandson was born yesterday. 9lb 11oz 22 1/4" long. Beefy kid. First one was 9lb 7oz 21 3/4" from another granddaughter back in early June. Those girls make some big kids.

Just looking at my own modelling method, I'd agree with those models to some degree. I'm seeing patterns favorable for near avg - much above temps for the 2nd half of Oct into the 1st half of Nov. So we'll shall see how that pans.

Seasonable temps with scattered shwrs, and windy conditions yesterday turning pretty chilly today. It's midday, and only in the upper 40's right now, and my furnace is running a bit more. NW winds creating a gravity wave with LER over the big lake. Gravity waves are typical along the shoreline with the terrain we have.

Nice and toasty to end Sept, and start Oct. Feels very nice, but like all things good, back to seasonable to cooler conditions in a few days, just like when last month started off.

That was a bust. Only 0.12", but that's ok. We've had a good month for precip. 7.95" (3.53" avg). Temps ended up warm for the month with +1 on the max, and +6 on the min. Time correction would affect the min the most being the TH co-op is an a.m. stn now. That would be around ~+1 correction for this month. I've figured out TOB (time of observation bias) corrections before many times. A little time consuming. Colder months generally see a +1-2 correction in mins, and +0.5-1 in max. This type of correction is a part of the "milk plant" corrections in various datasets. They have a formula they use depending on lat/long, and month, and the same value is used each respective month every year. It's an avg calculated over many years. Actual TOB values for a given month every year are quite variable, as the wx patterns tend to be a little different. I've spent many hours of research doing these calculations just to see how an actual TOB, instead of avg TOB, affects a stn record. Interesting research. Changing reporting times, especially from pm to am, does affect their trends significantly. And most stns have switched from pm to am now. Anyone on the sub a co-op observer? Or has been? If anyone is interested in doing that for a local co-op site, and you know the report time, find the nearest hourly stn (whether arpt, or PWS), and get the midnight-midnight monthly max avg, and min avg. And then get the avg between the report time of your co-op. 7 am is TH co-op's time, so I get the max-min each day between 7am using the same mid-mid hourly dataset, then avg that data for the month. Subtract 7am max avg from midnight max avg, and the same with min. The difference will be the correction to your co-op data. If the 7 am value is less, that will be a + correction (typical of am stns), and if it is more, that will be a - correction (typical of pm stns). Because PWS data online is fairly robust now, try this with 2-3 stns around the co-op to get a good idea of the TOB correction. If you want to do longer research, it gets a little hairy with DST in the past. That makes a big difference. You need to know when it starts, and ends each year, and if you start, say in 1948, you'll need to know when DST comes into effect at that arpt site. Each state is different. DST issues have been, and still are an issue. And if you do start way back then, data is top hr only until the 90's-2000's. To stay consistent, and keep the amount of data your working with reasonable, stay top hr only to the present. The difference is small with sub hr data in the mix. And just a side note, the 1960's data is 3hr reporting times, so you can't really use that decade. At least that was what I ran into a few years back. Might be different now. Get data here. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps-and-geospatial-products Under "Climate Monitoring", select "hourly and sub hourly". A map will come up. Find your station with search (easiest), or zoom in the map. Left side panel will have "Hourly Global" checked at the top. Click the wrench icon, and a dialog box will show on map. Select rectangle, or polygon for your highlighter. Over the stn(s) you wish to select, left click, hold, and highlight. Release, and the stn(s) you've selected will appear on the left side. Check the box(es), and choose "add to cart" at the bottom. New tab will open with yearly data you can download in csv. Have fun A good read on the TOB topic is here. https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/MP/ISWSMP-81.pdf

Shwrs/stms on the way this morning. Flood watch out tonight as another 2" of rain possible. Ground is soaked now, and heavier downpours will likely run off more quickly. Didn't take long to go from parched to swamped.