Brian D

Interesting, latest GFS/NAM runs show a miss with the snow tonight. Basically taking the same path as the first wave this morning. If so, that's ok too. Plenty of snow here, and don't need any ice. Guess we shall see if that pans out.

Even if it disappears, probably be back to some degree with the roller coaster pattern this month.

First wave of snow/frz rn went through earlier this morning staying mainly to my south, and east. Looks like weatherbo has been seeing that stuff this morning. Looking at radar loop, precip that was frz rn over land quickly turns to all snow over the Lake. Colder air over the icy waters of Lake Superior.

Nasty stuff! Weatherbo in line for the ugliest weather up here. Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Gogebic- Iron-Southern Houghton- Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Ironwood, Iron River, Kenton, and Sidnaw 348 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 /248 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022/ ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch with localized heavier accumulations. Also, snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Upper and western Upper Michigan. * WHEN...From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

Ice over Lake Superior at higher levels today, but with the storm system moving through, that will diminish quite a bit, as there is quite a bit of new, very thin ice out there. Along with ice piling up with the stronger NE over to NW winds.

Once thawing hits its stride around here, road bans go up for heavy trucks. Weight limits are put into effect, as frost leaving the ground softens it for a time. The weight limits help prevent damage during this vulnerable time. April is such a down time with really no outdoor activity feasible (hunting, fishing, snowmobiling, skiing, gardening, etc), besides the shitty wx. The only thing that does happen is stream fishing along the shore as the trout/smelt spawn gears up. May is when things get going for the warmer season activities. So I definitely double down on "April sux" meme.

DLH keeping their thinking pretty much the same as yesterday. Very messy, and ugly, especially for E MN/N WI/U.P. areas.

Mud month, with very changeable temps. Nice warm weather, then snows, or cold rains. Agree with you on that one. May is the real spring month.

The snowiest April in recent memory here was 2013, with 27" here in town, and 52" at the 7NW site away from the Lake. It snowed 2-3 times a week in 2 weeks. That winter was mild with little snow, but between March, and especially April, we made up for it. Cold Spring that year. That April storm in 2018 only put down 7-8" around here, so you really got hammered.

Just looking at the my local coop site data, Feb has been a bit more snowy the past 20+ years, especially since 2013. Out of the 20 unique amounts listed, 8 are since 2001, with 5 since 2013. 3 of the last 5 Feb are in the list, so very recent years have definitely been snowier. Two Harbors, MN Top 20 1922 47.0 1939 45.5 2014 31.1 2001 30.3 1897 29.0 2019 27.2 2018 26.7 1937 25.0 1909 24.5 1936 23.0 1911/2007 21.0 *2022 20.3 1908 20.0 1930/1965 19.5 2004 19.3 1945/1992 18.0 1986 17.5 1951 16.7 1996 16.5 2013 16.2

March is similar to mid Nov-mid Dec climo. 30/12 to start the month is normal here, too, along with higher avg snowfall than mid winter, ending with 42/24 by April Fool's Day.

DLH latest thinking has 3-6" of heavy, wet snow for me, with up to 1/2" ice in N WI/W U.P. with possible thunder. That's ugly.

Same temps around here this morning. -single digits near the Lake, with -10's to -20's inland. Cold morning. Another one tomorrow morning coming up before the ugly weather arrives.

Mid 30's yesterday with upper 20's today. Pretty seasonable weather with longer days. Very nice!

DLH thinking at this point. Ice is the big issue here. March 2010 was the biggest ice event that I remember with 1-2" along the N Shore. Lots of damage to the forest. Guess we shall see as this event nears. Messy is an apt word here for the area as a whole.

Looks like something is in the offing for the weekend, and it does look messy for MN. Rain/frz rain/sleet/snow. Well, that's March for ya. Plenty of ice here as the W half of the Lake is pretty covered. Weather has been generally calm, and will be until the weekend, so ice is forming, and thickening. That will keep a nice cold layer here, which could spell ice accumulations to start things off if a mid level warm layer makes it this far.

This was the heart of the cold in I-Falls back in 1996. State record of -60 was recorded in Tower, MN during this time, Feb 2 I believe. Actually, not much rebounding with highs in the -10's & -20's. I worked in a sawmill here in town back then. We had to shut down because the heaters in the mill couldn't keep up, and the hydraulic systems turned to jelly. Rural coop sites at that time were recording -50's for lows with similar highs. 1996-01-30 -12 -32 1996-01-31 -12 -35 1996-02-01 -25 -43 1996-02-02 -22 -45 1996-02-03 -10 -30 EDIT: Here's Tower 2S records for that time. Better rebounding there in the highs. 1996-01-30 0 -35 1996-01-31 -7 -55 1996-02-01 -6 -58 1996-02-02 -16 -60 1996-02-03 -19 M 1996-02-04 -4 -46 1996-02-05 0 M

Looking forward to next weekend. My modelling method is suggesting some potential there, but precip type will be an issue. Should be plenty of ice over the west side of the Lake to keep cold air in play. Ice over to snow is very likely. The upcoming week, although not as cold as previous days, is plenty cold enough to keep making ice, especially during the overnights. Some breezy weather will cause breakups, but there is going to be calmer winds mixed in there, too, which will help with ice formation. Right now, the entire west side of the Lake is ice covered, but it's on the thin side. Lake ice will be a big factor for my weather next weekend.

-30's again away from the Lake with near record/record lows set yet again. Jan-Feb this year has seen some really cold morning lows away from the Lake with many being near record/record stuff. A healthy snowpack with strong high pressure allowing for calm morning conditions really does the trick.

Very cold up here last night. That was the latest -40 reading record for I-Falls. Feb 20 had -44 for the latest -40 record before this morning. One more very bitter morning before more pleasant weather, yet still cold, starts this weekend. -20's is the forecast, but with very calm conditions slated for the a.m., probably will get a little colder, again, than the forecast. -30 was the forecast for this morning around those areas, and you can see how much colder it got.

Two Harbors ends with 10" in town, with about a 12" away from the lake. Site in town has 26" snow depth with 7NW site having 37". Pics from my home. Sorry, but being in a wheelchair limits my getting around, especially winter. Nothing like Bo's, but more than enough. Looks like Washburn,WI ends with 33.5". Impressive for this side of the Lake.

Washburn/Ashland, WI area have reports of 30" this aftrn. And it was still snowing at the time.

Snow winding down here. Looks like another 2 or 3" today. Close to foot here the last couple days., and March still to go, and probably some in April this year too. Already at avg snow for the season. Bo won't see the ground until Memorial day this year. LOL

Talk about a glacier. UUUFFFTA!

Looks like heavier synoptic snows heading into N WI/W U.P. right now. Just real light snows around the head of the Lake at the moment. Might get clipped by more synoptic stuff, but most should stay E of here.