Brian D

Yeah, just a dusting from some robust snow showers very early this morning around here. My grandson asked me if we were going to have snow for Christmas. Told him it would be a close call with 50-50 chance. Still expecting something just before or on that day, but will it pan? We shall see. Have that in the Holiday thread. TH co-op has snow depth readings of 0 for a few years on Christmas being right on the shoreline, The last was 2018. I'm ~ 1 mile from the shoreline, and can have slightly more otg than down there. Topo is unique for TH as it is the only place on the North Shore that has a more gentle rise. There is a big hill in the midst of town, tho. Reminds me of an ancient landslide. Probably was, and massive.

Uffda! No envy here.

Your doing better than me. The dry spell continues. What a difference from last Dec. Duluth ended up breaking it's monthly snowfall record. About 20 yrs ago (03/04 I think), we had little snow otg, and by Feb septic systems all over NE MN were failing. Drain fields were freezing up due to deep frost. Water mains were routinely breaking due to frost heaves. It wasn't even that cold of a winter, pretty avg/above with very little below zero temps. Septic services couldn't keep up with the pumping demand. They made a lot of money though.

Don't mind at all. Saves on my heat bill. It can get really F**King cold up here, so milder days are a plus. (20's & 30's)

Interesting. Similar pattern to what I'm seeing. Let see how this one pans.

System passing through today bringing nought in precip for me, and now cold winds up to 35mph. This old house breathing a bit. Can feel the draft.

I guess the Dec 9-10 stm thread should be moved in here.

Good cast. Potential works out, although what a NW trend in today's model runs. GFS back on T-Day had a possible storm track my way (as noted in above post), and it came back with suddenness. Euro keeps it more in WI, UP MI.

Yeah, now I'm in play all of a sudden, at least with GFS. Euro keeps it a little E of me.

For the Fall season we end up on the warmer side for 3rd year in row. Notice the 3 year runs since 2012. 3 avg/cooler, then 3 warmer, then 3 avg/cooler, and 3 warmer. Place your bets for next Fall? 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Prelim data in for Nov, and looks pretty avg. May go up a tick or two when more comes in, but pretty avg with a warmer W sub, and cooler E sub. Trend has dropped in recent years after a strong spike up starting in the late 90's into the early 2010's. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

For April, yeah, even tho there was record warmth in the midst of the month last time. It ended split between W & E sub. The last 2 March's have been split between W & E and N & S sub, as well. March 20 & 21 were pretty warm. March has been tending back n forth, with April's staying cooler. If anything, we are due for a warmer April.

No, it won't be long term, just a few days of significant cold in the mix. A more significant cold pattern won't show up until late Jan into Feb. I put my thoughts down in the winter thread, but just to remind folks: 1st half of Dec seasonable/warmer. 2nd half seasonable/colder. Jan will be mostly seasonable/warmer. Late Jan thru most of Feb will be seasonable/colder with late Feb turning seasonable/warmer. March....hmmm.... I guess a good word for that month would be flippant. Not unlike some posters here.

Hope you guys do well.

Enjoy the pleasant weather, because....

Southern shores of Lake Erie I take it. They got hit pretty good.

The 10 days before Christmas look cold with plenty of LES, and C/S Lakes storm potential. I think the odds for a white Christmas look better for many areas in our southern areas. Was looking a little closer at my modelling method. I have said the 2nd half of Dec looks seasonable to colder, and am sticking to it. 1st half has the opposite feel, and looks to be on track, as mentioned before.

Odd's are in my favor

4 this morning in town with goose egg at the arpt. Lots of - sd's this morning around the area.

It can. With high level ice crystals (very thin cirrus) signaling an approaching system/front.

Same here with upper sd's inland to low teens by the lake. CAA light snow showers moving through this morning, as well.

Just got dusted up my way, but it's trying to look like winter. Still some flakes in the air. Can't wait for the ground to turn white. It really helps brighten things up with reflective light.

I'm watching this day(s), and GFS trying, too, for something good. Although GLC favors me (MN) more than anyone.

Happy Thanksgiving guys. Hope your day has been a good one. Off to my daughter's place for family get together, and feasting on this chilly day. Highs in the mid 20's inland to low 30's lakeshore.

Very mellow wx recently. Dry continues. Did have some events earlier in the month, so sitting at 1.35". Nov avg is 2.18" so only need a little more. Had top 5 warmth in the middle of the month which is the only notable wx so far.