Brian D

Back in the 90's, Mn made a new law that requires anyone needing rescue from lake superior ice will be charged for the expense of having to rescue them. Too many times, people were going to far out, and not paying attention. Now, hardly ever do we have a situation like that here. Folks bring rafts, or kayaks, canoes, etc just in case. Ice fishing is a big deal when the ice forms, mainly down in Duluth.

Yeah, the ice movement early season, with new forming fast. I looked at vis for 28th, and there is ice in the area ice map shows (with what little is visible), so the other issue is, are daily maps for prior day ice? Because its sure starting to seem that way. They would have a full suite of data for the prior day, then they list it as that day when they do their work ups? Ice moves, and forms fast here too. So until it becomes high percentage, hard too tell. And just one open patch can allow for LES. See that here, too. If I would have caught their 30th ice maps, probably would have had that big opening. Something to track day by day to see how that goes, but early ice season is a fast changing season, and a snapshot of a very fluid situation doesn't tell the whole story.

Looks like the ice maps were right. The above image on Jan 29 looks like open water, but it isn't. It's new, clear ice. Two days later after some light snow on Jan 30, this is what you see on Jan 31. They have radar sat to see what vis sat can't. They aren't perfect, but not that far off.

20's n 30's for the coming week will feel nice before the next cold wave hits. Add in a little snow there, too. In the fall, those temps are colder than sin, yet after bitter waves, its pleasant.

Snow is winding down. Looks to be 4-5" around the area with 6-10" up around Lutsen, and Grand Marais. Nice powder to take the dirty look away for a little while. Couple more chances for light-mod snow next week looks like. Edit: Looks like 3-6" between here and Duluth, and 6-12" up the shore to the border.

Another thing of interest, is the chart below showing drought conditions were more prevalent in the 1850's-60's, especially the western US, where it was being hit pretty hard. Just some more cool history.

Here's a look at last months rankings, and anomaly chart for our region. Been a few years since we had a really chilly Jan. The last time was 2014, although 2019 had its moments. A state record low for Illinois, if I remember correctly, at the end of the month. As cooler as we were, our neighbors just west of us in the plains had milder conditions, especially the afternoon highs. Easy to see where the jet liked to set up. This time around, because of the mostly below normal conditions for the north central US, I switched to ranking from the cold side. 2021 was so warm, always had to rank from the warm end, with a few exceptions.

Light snow this morning as clipper moves in. Some mod snow bands starting to develop. A general 3-6" with a little more around Grand Marais with the help of the Lake. This is so much better than bitter.

Starting to look like MBY.

Have some really light LE coming in leaving a dusting. Very fine stuff. Can't really call it mood flakes, but drizzle snow. EDIT: TV met years ago coined the really fine snow as SNIZZLE. Apt term.

Lol. -5/-10 up here. Heatwave. Looks like 3-6" of snow for tomorrow. Been a few days since we've seen any around here.

Sure hope folks didn't die or get seriously injured.

Choice three, stay in, and 4, sleep till noon.

Here's the chart from NWS Duluth. The wind chills they have are from 2-3 mph wind. -45 temps with 5 mph wind is -63. You walk in that cold air, the breeze from just moving in it causes a wind chill like what they have listed.

Just noticed the winds switching off the Lake. Low clouds from the sea smoke out there moving in. Some light lake effect possible later.

While you guys are getting snow. Near record/record cold up my this morning. Mid -30's to low -40's. Winds went dead calm just before sunrise to let the temps plummet. -20 near the Lake.

-20 here in town this morning. Looks like some near record/record cold this morning in the Arrowhead. Brimson -40 (2nd), I-Falls -42 (1st), Hibbing -36 (1st). Winds were very calm early this morning, so temps were able to plummet just before sunrise. Brutal, but at least the wind is minimal. Highs today around -5/5, so a nice return there. Seen much worse daily highs this time of year. EDIT: Just seen the postman walk by. Poor guy has a glacier on his beard. Been there a time or two.

Hope ev1 is enjoying winter finally. Good month 4 u all down that way.

In pt 2 I mentioned this.

Good luck guys, looks like the event is starting.

Windy day here with 40 mph gusts out the W/NW. Temps slowly dropping today. Bitter wx returns.

Well, looks like the nice weather is going bye-bye. Temps hit around 30 yesterday. Front has made its way through, and winds are gusty. Temps in the mid-upper 20's last night are slowly falling today. More bitter on tap for mid week. Rather boring, but lots of sun, and days getting just a little longer now. That's a plus.

Just looking ahead, mid Feb has interesting parallels to the upcoming system. Right around V-Day time and just a little after with my modelling method. Very curious to see how that pans. Give you all something to look forward too anyway. But that's another topic for another day.

I've been quite entertained by the emotional roller coaster ride on this event. It really has been a while for some of you.

Good call here. Enjoy!!