Brian D

This was the heart of the cold in I-Falls back in 1996. State record of -60 was recorded in Tower, MN during this time, Feb 2 I believe. Actually, not much rebounding with highs in the -10's & -20's. I worked in a sawmill here in town back then. We had to shut down because the heaters in the mill couldn't keep up, and the hydraulic systems turned to jelly. Rural coop sites at that time were recording -50's for lows with similar highs. 1996-01-30 -12 -32 1996-01-31 -12 -35 1996-02-01 -25 -43 1996-02-02 -22 -45 1996-02-03 -10 -30 EDIT: Here's Tower 2S records for that time. Better rebounding there in the highs. 1996-01-30 0 -35 1996-01-31 -7 -55 1996-02-01 -6 -58 1996-02-02 -16 -60 1996-02-03 -19 M 1996-02-04 -4 -46 1996-02-05 0 M

Looking forward to next weekend. My modelling method is suggesting some potential there, but precip type will be an issue. Should be plenty of ice over the west side of the Lake to keep cold air in play. Ice over to snow is very likely. The upcoming week, although not as cold as previous days, is plenty cold enough to keep making ice, especially during the overnights. Some breezy weather will cause breakups, but there is going to be calmer winds mixed in there, too, which will help with ice formation. Right now, the entire west side of the Lake is ice covered, but it's on the thin side. Lake ice will be a big factor for my weather next weekend.

-30's again away from the Lake with near record/record lows set yet again. Jan-Feb this year has seen some really cold morning lows away from the Lake with many being near record/record stuff. A healthy snowpack with strong high pressure allowing for calm morning conditions really does the trick.

Very cold up here last night. That was the latest -40 reading record for I-Falls. Feb 20 had -44 for the latest -40 record before this morning. One more very bitter morning before more pleasant weather, yet still cold, starts this weekend. -20's is the forecast, but with very calm conditions slated for the a.m., probably will get a little colder, again, than the forecast. -30 was the forecast for this morning around those areas, and you can see how much colder it got.

Two Harbors ends with 10" in town, with about a 12" away from the lake. Site in town has 26" snow depth with 7NW site having 37". Pics from my home. Sorry, but being in a wheelchair limits my getting around, especially winter. Nothing like Bo's, but more than enough. Looks like Washburn,WI ends with 33.5". Impressive for this side of the Lake.

Washburn/Ashland, WI area have reports of 30" this aftrn. And it was still snowing at the time.

Snow winding down here. Looks like another 2 or 3" today. Close to foot here the last couple days., and March still to go, and probably some in April this year too. Already at avg snow for the season. Bo won't see the ground until Memorial day this year. LOL

Talk about a glacier. UUUFFFTA!

Looks like heavier synoptic snows heading into N WI/W U.P. right now. Just real light snows around the head of the Lake at the moment. Might get clipped by more synoptic stuff, but most should stay E of here.

Well, get off your ass and start shoveling man . Just messing with ya. But you have some work ahead of you that's for sure. That's getting to be tooo much.

Reports this morning showing 8" here in town with up to 12-24" around the head of the lake. Still snowing, but lighter than yesterday. I'd say 3-6" in general with any LES bands putting down more today.

Update report from 6pm was put up finally in the above mentioned area at 17". Still snowing pretty good there. Another site near the town of Washburn is reporting 20" at 9pm. LES band has, and still is hitting the area, but just a little south now over Ashland. Snow lighten up a bit here, but is getting a little heavier again. Basically light-mod snow from here on out through tomorrow. 12-18" looks to be a good call for the area, with some exceeding by a lot under heavy LES.

Looks like a 6.5" report came in just south of town on the shore from 7pm.

Interesting, but not sure if the one measuring is an official observer site. If it does surpass, it may not get counted. Not sure of the protocols. Looking at the dialog box of the report, there are no comments, like social media, or CoCoRahs, etc.

Last report was 21" at 5pm and it still snowing good on that webcam at 7pm, so big time snow there with probably 36-48 hrs left for them. Crawling out the 2nd story window there. A couple 9" reports from dwntwn DLH came in.

Washburn, WI reported 19" as of 3pm, and a report from French River, which is between TH, and DLH on the shore, reported 12" as of 5pm. Still a good 24-36hrs to go. Edit: More reports of 6-7" around the head of the Lake, and one area still hasn't updated, and that's folks in the St. Louis River valley on the south side of Duluth. A couple reports there had 5" by 9am, and it has been snowing rather hard at times in that area. Nothing reported around my town yet, and I can't tell with the drifting but there's plenty.

Snow is really picking up now. Getting heavy as synoptic stuff is pushing N. With the wind, whiteout conditions pretty soon.

When I worked up my latest forecast for the Holiday 2022 thread, the roller coaster looks to continue through Spring. This could be a rather violent spring season at times with the strong CA fronts and energy from the west.

This confirms what I said earlier about the ice causing the immediate shore to get good snows. DLH put up this storyboard showing the snow right along the shoreline, and current radar still shows the same. LES bands are getting stronger now for some north of me due to the 850 wind being due East, and N WI is getting hammered with synoptic, and lake enhanced lifted snows. A small LES band has been sitting just N of Ashland all morning.

Moderate snow falling right now. Couple inches so far this morning. Winds are not bad, a little gusty, but they are supposed to pick up more later on. Snow is light, and dry, it blows around really easy. TH Live cam

DLH really jacked up totals. We shall see. Seems the earlier totals were based on 15 & 18:1, but now its 18 & 20:1. Edit: Here's the discussion. the 2nd paragraph is what I've been mentioning earlier. Ice is a big factor here, and it was spread out yesterday with the strong SW winds. Nonetheless, a long fetch should help out, and let the precip be a little heavier than normal along the immediate shore. We are much closer to open water up here than DLH is, but the ice will help moisture precip out earlier than if it was open water right on shore like I mentioned earlier. Seen that many times over the years. The first feature will be an FGEN band that utilizes moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the warm sector underneath a strong right entrance region of a 140kt 250mb jet on Monday morning. The second feature will be a developing low coming out of the Four Corners region that crosses the Midwest and drapes its deformation zone atop the baroclinic zone. PWATs with these features range from 0.25 to 0.40. A deep DGZ will be situated right over the Twin Ports for the majority of the event. This coupled with the upper level forcing provided by the eventual cyclogenetic system, ejecting out of the Four Corners region, should cause this event to be prolonged and last into late Tuesday. There will likely be a lull between these features where snowfall rates drop significantly on Tuesday morning before sunrise. The depth of the DGZ will be efficient in converting the relatively minimal amount of PWAT into fluffy snow with snow ratios of 18:1 and even as high as 20:1 expected. In the primary band of snow, the QPF with this system is expected to be around 0.75 to 1.00. So after putting this all together, we are expecting snowfall totals in excess of foot in the main band of snow that extends from St. Cloud into Ashland, WI and nicks the Twin Ports with around a foot of snow too. Other factors to watch for are lake enhancement due to the long fetch of northeasterly winds across Lake Superior. The last clear shot from satellite indicates that the vast majority of Lake Superior is unfrozen with one large island of ice extending from Superior to the Apostles. This ice flow was headed east; however, the northeasterly winds should bring that back to the western end of the lake. This has the potential to kill the lake enhancement, but when and to what degree is unknown and it may only dampen the effect. For this package, did up the snowfall amounts along the North Shore from Duluth to Silver Bay.

Memorial weekend looks cool, and wet, with storms for the southern areas.

On Mother's Day, it looks stormy as well.

Easter weekend looks fair on Good Friday with an approaching front Saturday. Easter looks to be a wet one with some energy possibly moving ahead or along the front stirring things up a bit.

Next on the list is April Fools Day as Easter is later this year. Looks like a storm system moving in, and I just might get a little snow out of this one.