Brian D

The model runs I'm seeing today for late Jan is what I was talking about here for the potential I see in my own modelling method. Cold with clippers, but Western energy sliding in too, shaking things up. A bit of both would make for a wild month. And it looks like right into early March as well. For me, tho, that means mostly CAD, which sucks, as we really need the precip. Oct thru present has been slim on the moisture.

But the sunny wx will be short lived. Messy wx on tap with a little snow to end the week.

Was going to start posting these at the New Year, but slipped my mind. This date in weather history in MN January 1 2003: On this date there is an inch or less of snow on the ground from Duluth to the Iowa border. In the Twin Cities there isn't even a dirty snowbank to be found. 1997: Freezing rain causes numerous accidents along the North Shore. In Lake County, vehicles could not get up hills and were blocking roads. Highway 61 was closed for several hours from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. 1864: Extremely cold air moves into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a high of 25 degrees below zero. January 2 1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February. January 3 1981: Arctic air visits Minnesota. Embarrass, Wannaska, and Tower all hit 38 below zero. 1977: 14.2 inches of snow falls in Mankato. January 4 1981: Air cold enough to freeze a mercury thermometer pours into Minnesota. Tower hits 45 below zero. 1971: A snowstorm moves through the Upper Midwest. Winona gets over 14 inches. January 5 2012: Record warmth is felt across the state. Many locations in western Minnesota soared over 50 degrees, with temperatures reaching the 60s at Marshall, Canby, and Madison. This was the first record of any 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota during the first week of January. January 6 1942: The temperature rises from 32 below zero to 41 above in 24 hours in Pipestone. January 7 2003: Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s, including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning. 1873: A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than 70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day storm. January 8 1902: A January Thaw occurs across Minnesota. The Twin Cities experience a high of 46 degrees. January 9 1982: Both January 9th and 10th would have some of the coldest windchills ever seen in Minnesota. Temperatures of -30 and winds of 40 mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to windchills of -71 with the new windchill formula, and -100 with the old formula. 1934: A sleet and ice storm hits southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit locations were Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: 'Very peculiar information being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble.' January 10 1990: A January 'heat wave' forms. MSP Airport warms to 49 degrees. 1975: The 'Blizzard of the Century' begins. Also called the 'Super Bowl Blizzard,' it was one of the worst blizzards ever. The pressure hit a low of 28.62. This was the record until 1998. January 11 1975: A blizzard continues with hurricane force winds in southwestern Minnesota. 1899: An odd flash of lightning lights the clouds up around 9 pm at Maple Plain. January 12 2000: Snow falls in a narrow band over the Twin Cities. Maplewood receives 5.5 inches, while Chanhassen gets 12. 1888: The infamous 'Blizzard of '88' occurs. It hit during a mild day when many children were heading home from school. They made up the majority of the 200 people that died. At the end of the storm the thermometer at St. Paul read -37.

Nice sunny day, and not bitter. That's always a plus. Colder months are so cloudy. Sunny days lift the spirit.

Earth Day again needs watching as a front moves through in the N, with potential energy from the W or SW sneaking into the picture.

Easter weekend needs to watched. Energy from the W may ride a boundary into our region. If not, expect a front moving through at the very least.

April Fool's Day looks unsettled with a front moving through bringing cooler wx with scattered shwrs/stms ahead most likely.

St. Patrick's Day looks fair, and cool with what looks like a long wave moving in that will up the temps, and stm potential.

Employee Appreciation Day on March 6 looks pretty good, but chilly. Some energy from the W may sneak into our region in the days after.

Quick 0.1" from that burst of snow that moved through. Maybe someday I'll get something that actually is up the ruler a ways

2.0". That 2nd round had some heavier snow with it as LP skirted just to my N. Some snow showers possible later today. A little rain/mix possible Tues.

2nd round of light snow moving through. Will measure when it's over. Probably a strong 1/2 inch out there atm, but enough to whiten things up a bit.

Dec was impressive both ways this year. From CC cringe To CC orgasm

Dense fog this morning. Then a little snow over the weekend (maybe an inch at best). Temps are seasonably mild. I'll take it.

Here are the work ups I did a couple years ago comparing urban and suburb/rural updated to 2025. BTW, added extra years to CHI from wx data that is raw (1830-1872). It hasn't been through re-analysis like the early data for MSP (1820-1872). But thought it would be cool to see how it looks when graphed. IND & DET below as well.

Early data in for Dec. Little cooler this year akin to 2017. Annual is on the warmer side, but less so than the last 2 years. 5 & 10 yr tend charts shown respectively. BTW, have more data back to 1781. Just a reminder, pre-1850 is slim on data, so take it with a grain of salt. Trends are probably in the ballpark (as you will see in the next post), but individual years may be changed a lot when more data becomes available in the coming years (hopefully).

Lake ice as of yesterday. Generally new/thin ice with thin/medium thick in the bays. Thick ice in the N bays of L Superior.

Sorry for your loss. My ma passed in Jan 21'. She lived out in the higher terrain N of town. I would also let her know when bigger snows were coming or svr wx. She was in a nursing home for a couple yrs in town before passing on, but she appreciated the heads up when she was in her home.

2.3" imby. Mammoth aggregate was such a bonus. Those flakes must have been cloud dancing before hitting the floor. Up N they got 6-10" in Cook county with 3-4" in N Lake/St. Louis County area. Had to look at CoCoRahs map to get totals. Usually they plot 1" or greater reports for sure, and some lesser ones, but a little behind this morning. Might be under staffed atm.

Happened only once last year. This year is great. Normally don't see flakes this big all that often.

SN right now with massive flakes exceeding 2" at times. Golf ball flakes and lots of quarters under calm winds.

TBH, I like Feb for the sub. It's going to be something to watch unfold. It could end up be a rather wild month.

System Jan 9-10th still in the gov model eye. My modelling method is showing potential for that time, so someone is going to get hit pretty good it's looking like at this time. I think the best I could hope for is some LES action. But we also have potential svr wx on the S side of this as well to contend with. Very Spring like system again.

Looks like a couple inches of snow today with another system bringing some fr drz/rn over to lgt sn overnight Mon. Keep the glacier slowly growing.

Quick 0.5" of fluff. Looking at 2-4" tomorrow.