Brian D

Think your right. It's taking a bit longer.

It's modeled data, and I've found some more to go back to 1806 now. With super computers, and some wx data from way back then, they put out some stuff. I'm sure they have records to use that we don't have. It's estimated of course, and I won't use it, unless I have a least 2 datasets for an avg. Currently using 7 sets from 1850, but earlier is 2 or 3.

-sd's to -20's across the area this morning. Looks like this coming week is going to be a cold, dry stretch with a stronger shot of colder air coming in tomorrow. Also looks like the winds will stay a bit mellow, which will allow for rapid ice formation here on the W side of the Lake. A lot less sea smoke rising from the open water now, which is a sign of near freezing water.

New dataset came online, so I'm now able to go back a little earlier to 1836. Here's the revised charts. 5 & 10 yr charts shown respectively.

Early data in for Jan, and we are starting the year on a slightly negative note. Thinking this will end up similar to 2019 after the other datasets update later in the month. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

3" fell overnight. Hit min guidance from aftrn update yesterday. Went from 4-6" to 3-5", and barely made that. Not much to look at in the coming days, except some pittance snows, maybe. Update: Looks like a general 2-5" around the area with 5-8" up in Cook county. Pretty much min guidance all around.

Looking at a few inches starting later today. Already some light LES falling which is a good sign. RH levels are running a little low in the region, so synoptics are going to have to deal with that first, but with low level moisture on the Lake, potentially better scenario for me. I hope anyway. Need lots more snow.

Ice conditions as of Feb 3.

Chilly a.m. here in NE MN. Temps -sd's to -10's with an isolated -20 in the mix. Looking forward to some snow tomorrow night.

Looking forward to another 3" snow Wed eve thru early Thurs this week. Might be a little more if the Lake enhances it well.

Forecast was pretty good, so yes, the lake provided much needed enhancement.

Early snow reports looking like 5-8" across NE MN, could be a couple bigger ones reported in soon. 7.1" imby.

Decent cast here except was a little quick in the timing, and not quite as cold as I anticipated. Will be LES tomorrow night with HP nudged in, and a N flow through the Lakes after the front quickly moves through the sub bringing some precip with it.

After bands of snow aloft moving through this am, it finally saturated. LET IT SNOW!!

NWS DLH is upping things a bit today for tomorrows snow. They even give details on the left for their reasoning, which is pretty cool. They love their story boards, and I like them too. And I've let them know that. And, that I post them to this wx forum on occasion. It has also come to my attention that local news markets are starting to drop there local TV mets as cost cutting measures, and switching to national outlets like TWC for wx info. Older media slowly fading, it looks like, so NWS presentations could be more prominent.

Stout warm spell today. Records fallen all over MN, and WI. In MN, I-Falls 39 (3rd), Hibbing 39 (3rd), Duluth 43 (2nd), Brainerd 48 (1st), Park Rapids 46 (1st), St Cloud 48 (1st), Minneapolis 52 (1st). In WI, Ashland 45 (T2nd), Rhinelander 43 (2nd), Green Bay 54 (1st +12 from 2nd), La Crosse 58 (1st +10 + Monthly rec), Madison 57 (1st +10), Milwaukee 55 (1st). Here's my stat breakdown for these 3 significant records from these cities. I keep track, and will update next month. Max 5+ from 2nd place with 10+ specially noted.

Looking for a good hit this weekend. IMBY only 10.5" for the season which is 2" more than the co-op site on the shoreline. Ugly!

Any large, lingering HP's with bitter cold will allow ice to form fast this time of year. Need lots of colder, calmer days to get higher ice %'s.

Clipper snow just missed me to the N. They only picked up 1-2". Looking at this weekend for a 2-4" hit hopefully.

Ice conditions a little less robust today after a lot of wind, less cold since last week.

1" of snow from that batch that moved through yesterday. Just snow showers/flurries today. Milder wx on tap with another clipper potential Tues that should net another 1-3". Feb 2 system seems ingrained in the models. That could put down 6"(more or less) around here. Would be welcome if it pans.

Hit some low numbers this morning before temp rise ahead of front in the area. -10's to -20's, with -sd's along the shore. Looks like 1-3" possible in the area today into tomorrow. Will take what I can get in this meager winter so far. Looking forward to seeing some bigger hits in Feb n March.

Ice status as of yesterday.

The way I see Feb is cold start, then stormy, milder with brief cold shots, ending with colder wx extending into early March before a milder, stormy wx continues starting in the Ides of March.

This storm is very similar to the Valentine's Day winter storm of 1895 Lake Charles, LA 22", Baton Rouge, LA 12.5", Gulfport, MS 6.3", Mobile, AL 6", and Pensacola, FL 3". So it looks like this one will be 2nd or 1st biggest snow depending on final totals at various spots along the Gulf coast.