Brian D

For the Fall season we end up on the warmer side for 3rd year in row. Notice the 3 year runs since 2012. 3 avg/cooler, then 3 warmer, then 3 avg/cooler, and 3 warmer. Place your bets for next Fall? 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Prelim data in for Nov, and looks pretty avg. May go up a tick or two when more comes in, but pretty avg with a warmer W sub, and cooler E sub. Trend has dropped in recent years after a strong spike up starting in the late 90's into the early 2010's. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

For April, yeah, even tho there was record warmth in the midst of the month last time. It ended split between W & E sub. The last 2 March's have been split between W & E and N & S sub, as well. March 20 & 21 were pretty warm. March has been tending back n forth, with April's staying cooler. If anything, we are due for a warmer April.

No, it won't be long term, just a few days of significant cold in the mix. A more significant cold pattern won't show up until late Jan into Feb. I put my thoughts down in the winter thread, but just to remind folks: 1st half of Dec seasonable/warmer. 2nd half seasonable/colder. Jan will be mostly seasonable/warmer. Late Jan thru most of Feb will be seasonable/colder with late Feb turning seasonable/warmer. March....hmmm.... I guess a good word for that month would be flippant. Not unlike some posters here.

Hope you guys do well.

Enjoy the pleasant weather, because....

Southern shores of Lake Erie I take it. They got hit pretty good.

The 10 days before Christmas look cold with plenty of LES, and C/S Lakes storm potential. I think the odds for a white Christmas look better for many areas in our southern areas. Was looking a little closer at my modelling method. I have said the 2nd half of Dec looks seasonable to colder, and am sticking to it. 1st half has the opposite feel, and looks to be on track, as mentioned before.

Odd's are in my favor

4 this morning in town with goose egg at the arpt. Lots of - sd's this morning around the area.

It can. With high level ice crystals (very thin cirrus) signaling an approaching system/front.

Same here with upper sd's inland to low teens by the lake. CAA light snow showers moving through this morning, as well.

Just got dusted up my way, but it's trying to look like winter. Still some flakes in the air. Can't wait for the ground to turn white. It really helps brighten things up with reflective light.

I'm watching this day(s), and GFS trying, too, for something good. Although GLC favors me (MN) more than anyone.

Happy Thanksgiving guys. Hope your day has been a good one. Off to my daughter's place for family get together, and feasting on this chilly day. Highs in the mid 20's inland to low 30's lakeshore.

Very mellow wx recently. Dry continues. Did have some events earlier in the month, so sitting at 1.35". Nov avg is 2.18" so only need a little more. Had top 5 warmth in the middle of the month which is the only notable wx so far.

Interesting. That looks similar to what I said about Dec. 1st days a little colder, then seasonable/milder back seasonable/colder 2nd half.

Looks like my T-Day forecast is unfolding today, so 2 days late with this one. Not uncommon to have my forecasts end up 1 or 2 days off it seems, but otherwise looks pretty good with the pattern.

GHD looks like high pressure moving in bringing some rather chilly wx. LES probable, as waters should be pretty open still.

2024 right around the corner. New Year's Eve, and Day forecast in the 2023 thread. MLK Day forecast looks mellow with fronts moving along the north areas. Some energy possible skirting the southern areas needs watching.

Yeah, and by Thanksgiving, we'll have highs in the teens n 20's. Winter BOOM! But nothing unusual for Nov.

I think the record today is 68 in 1953. Yesterday was 69 in 1953.

A little OT here, but just came across info on the Leonid meteor shower we have every Nov. In 1833, there was a meteor storm on Nov 12-13. Est 100-200k+/hr rates across the E US. The moon had set in the evening, leaving dark skies for the event to be seen easily. And of course, then, no real light pollution to speak of like we have today. WOW! That would be awesome to witness. Hope something like that happens before I leave the world. Remembering those 2 comets back in the mid-late 90's with awesome tail views in the NW sky. Hale-Bopp was one, then there was another with a Japanese name if memory serves. Rare one gets to see events like that in your lifetime.

I mentioned Feb looking seasonable to colder most of the month. Seems we have seen a few more of those types in recent years than warmer. Jan has the opposite feel. Doesn't mean there can't be a quick snap, tho.

It'll be nice to have some colder wx. Force the trolls back into their caves. Hope a large Beaufort Gyre freshwater release happens soon into the N Atl. That'll keep them hibernating for a few years. LOL Don't get me wrong, I fall in the lukewarmer camp, I just shake my head at "chicken little" nonsense. So that means I believe we will oscillate on a slowly warming trend. But the geo-political situation continues to devolve, so, much more weighty matters are in our face, and could be for many years to come. This verse comes to mind " they shall cry 'Peace, and safety', then sudden destruction shall come". And of course, a massive solar event could put us back into the stone age in just one day, too. CC is just not that high on the list of "OMG's" considering the wars/plagues/natural disasters of history that can easily happen again with much more devastating effects. We can adapt much easier to CC, than if other stuff happens. Alright, enough of that. Hopefully the rest of you will stop with CC stuff, and get back to the topic of this thread, and other threads. I mentioned in an earlier post about my feel for winter, and I said it looked like the 1st half of Dec was going to fall into the seasonable to warmer camp. Still holding to that, except the first couple days could be on the colder side. Back in the Oct thread, I mentioned the seasonable to warmer conditions for the 2nd half of Oct - 1st half of Nov. The late Oct into the 1st days of Nov snap was a bit more aggressive than I anticipated. I never mentioned the 2nd half of Nov, which has a more seasonable to colder feel. And that looks to bleed into the 1st days of Dec. Seasonable can mean slightly warmer/cooler than avg. Aprox +/-5dF of avg is usual fare on a daily basis for seasonable wx.