Brian D
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Everything posted by Brian D
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Easter is pretty late this year. Earth Day is just 2 days after, so I will have both forecasts in this post. First, Easter Sunday looks cool with shwrs/stms possible across areas of the S sub. Another LP will be entering our region on Earth Day. Expecting temps to rise ahead of the LP, with shwrs/stms on tap.
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Top 5 warmth yesterday across most of MN, and WI. Felt nice. Big water puddles around here as temps reached 47 here in town. A nice ending to the month with the last week having temps in the 30's & 40's. After a month of really bitter wx, this is great.
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This chart mirrors that graph. Canada's weekly % chart updated every Wed.
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Guess I spoke too soon SW winds today are blowing ice NE, so I'm sure the thin stuff is breaking up with bigger, thicker slabs drifting up the Lake.
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This is yesterday's ice. Probably will be the greatest extent of the season.
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Saying good-bye to the deeply bitter wx, and on to some milder stuff (35-40) this coming weekend into next week. Heat wave!
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Temps running -10's to -20's this morning. A breezy NW wind driving wind chills down into the -30's to -40's. Rather it be -30 on a calm wind than a -30 wind chill. Wind slices through you.
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I thought I would contribute with the data I have. Take it for what it's worth, but 1850 forward is a pretty solid avg, with pre 1850 in need of more datasets to make it better. Because your on the eastern edge of the zones I have, I've also included the NE data so you can get a better feel. Just as side note, the 1830's were more avg to above for winter in both sections.
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3-6" around my area being reported so far. 2.8" imby. NWS DLH had the avg ratio for the SLR at 48:1. Very dry, powdery snow.
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Some big changes in just 1 day. The next arctic wave should cause some bigger increases depending on the wind velocities.
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Valentine's forecast a little off, but there is a system coming in affecting the region, especially S sub. What I saw as a front ends up being a trough extending NE from LP. President's day will see the LP in the W get shunted to the SE while another round of arctic invades the region. Was uncertain on that LP track.
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Looks like I'll pick up a couple inches, maybe a little more.
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Here's the current ice conditions as of Feb 11.
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Significant cold this morning. I-Falls -33 (5th), Hibbing -36 (2nd), Duluth -26 (4th), Brainerd -29 (t4th), Park Rapids -29 (t5th), St. Cloud -19 (t5th), and Ashland, WI -18 (t6th). And it's not unusual for NWS DLH to undercast a.m. temps as you'll notice from yesterdays story board.
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Thought about that later. Really hasn't been much snow hitting the Lake up here. You do get light stuff from the LES that helps, but synoptic help is a plus as it's much more widespread.
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-10's to -30's across NE MN this morning. Pretty much a cold week ahead with similar a.m. numbers on tap. Enjoy your winter stms in the S sub. My bitter is usually your snow hits.
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After getting our region updated back to 1806, noticed something from the annual chart, and my MSP area corrected dataset. Early 1820's into the early 1830's were rather warm overall.
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Think your right. It's taking a bit longer.
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It's modeled data, and I've found some more to go back to 1806 now. With super computers, and some wx data from way back then, they put out some stuff. I'm sure they have records to use that we don't have. It's estimated of course, and I won't use it, unless I have a least 2 datasets for an avg. Currently using 7 sets from 1850, but earlier is 2 or 3.
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-sd's to -20's across the area this morning. Looks like this coming week is going to be a cold, dry stretch with a stronger shot of colder air coming in tomorrow. Also looks like the winds will stay a bit mellow, which will allow for rapid ice formation here on the W side of the Lake. A lot less sea smoke rising from the open water now, which is a sign of near freezing water.
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New dataset came online, so I'm now able to go back a little earlier to 1836. Here's the revised charts. 5 & 10 yr charts shown respectively.
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Early data in for Jan, and we are starting the year on a slightly negative note. Thinking this will end up similar to 2019 after the other datasets update later in the month. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.
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3" fell overnight. Hit min guidance from aftrn update yesterday. Went from 4-6" to 3-5", and barely made that. Not much to look at in the coming days, except some pittance snows, maybe. Update: Looks like a general 2-5" around the area with 5-8" up in Cook county. Pretty much min guidance all around.
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Looking at a few inches starting later today. Already some light LES falling which is a good sign. RH levels are running a little low in the region, so synoptics are going to have to deal with that first, but with low level moisture on the Lake, potentially better scenario for me. I hope anyway. Need lots more snow.
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Ice conditions as of Feb 3.
