Brian D

As we enter Oct, we come to Child Health Day. Looks pretty nice under HP, with some cool am temps probable.

Next is Constitution/Citizens Day. Looks like a cool, wet day with scattered showers in the N areas, and more organized weather in the S areas. Brisk weather moving in is what it looks like. On that note, Sept, in general has a much more Fallish feel this year than we have seen in recent years. 2020 was the last year we saw a cooler month that ended being near avg for the sub. Since 2015, Sept's have been rather warm.

Finished up more forecasts for Sept-Oct. Grandparents Day comes shortly after Labor Day each year, and this year it looks like some wet weather will be entering our sub after some nice days under HP (although radiational cooling could have us see some cool am temps).

Another warm, muggy day on tap, but today will start the stm/svr stm potential thru tomorrow. 1-3" forecast for my area. Currently only have 1.88" in the bucket for the month. 4.05" is the avg. Lack of substantial rains recently has been a good thing, tho, as we had too much in June, and early July in NE MN. Hydro system has mellowed, so any heavier rains should not be a big problem.

Was just thinking, Dog Days around my way can be from a Bull Mastiff to a Chihuahua. Bull showing up this week.

Temps peaked around 88-90 with low-mid 70 dews around here. Sweating to the oldies day lol. Normal stuff for S sub tho.

Looks like a pretty good call here. Timing off a little, but a good forecast.

As of 10 am, skies are cloudy with temps in the low 70's, and dews as well. Very muggy. Sun should pop out later, and temps rise into the mid-upper 80's. Dews should drop some, but it's going to be a stifling day. Same for tomorrow, but then stms enter the picture.

After the above little project in the quote, I wondered what the dataset would look like if I attempted to take out the suburban taint in the data. Just a a possibility on what would a truly rural look the data would have. This is what I came up with after perusing the metadata on site locations, and coming up with correction figures. The adjustments were not too aggressive. It's a rather fun, but tedious exercise. When you have data going back into the 1820's, hey, why not.

Only beat you by 5dF. Chilly, cloudy day with a stiff Lake breeze. Although the Sun did peak out late this aftrn for a bit. Not much help.

Came across this site a long time ago. It has a reconstruction of temp data starting in 1820 from Ft. Snelling. Apparently it's the only reconstruction that has been done on data from early pioneer days. At least from what the article says at the time of the writing of it. Maybe that's has changed. Not sure. Here's the link to the site, and you can access the data, and writings from there. https://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis-2/ But anyway, I got to thinking recently, what would that early data from a rural setting look like if you add more rural data to it up to the present day. The chart they present is Ft. Snelling data with Minneapolis/St. Paul threaded data. So I found some co-op stations to use in my new, more rural revised dataset. They're about 15-20 miles outside of the MSP airport. Farmington, Rosemount, (both S) and Chanhassen NWS (W). Farmington 3NW (212737) 1893-2009, Rosemount Research Center (217107) 1951-2023, and Chanhassen NWS (211448) 1996-2023. Data has been time corrected for Farmington, and Rosemount. Chanhassen is 2400 readings, so no correction needed there. I then averaged them. The threaded data for the Twin Cities: St. Paul 01/1873-04/1891, MSP downtown 05/1891-4/8/1938, and MSP airport 4/9/1938-12/2023. Since Farmington starts in 1893, that leaves a 20 yr period with no comparative data, so I had to reduce it by using the avg difference between Farmington (early decades), and MSP which ended up being -1.5. Here are the results of my work. You can see how much cooler it is outside an urban environment, and it's especially noticeable from the time ASOS readings started to be taken from within the runways at MSP airport in 2002.

Been a very pleasant few days, but looks like a good chance at shwrs/stms today. Unfortunately lots of smoke has been around from western/northern fires. Nasty skies! Hot weekend on tap. Could reach low 90's in town. Top 5 heat.

Cool start for some in NE MN with am temps in the 40's. Low-mid 70's on tap today. Refreshing.

Temps briefly peaked around 80 a couple times today when the Sun peeked out. Been a mostly cloudy day with some scattered shwrs/stms. Much more pleasant day than yesterday. Rest of the week looking rather reasonable like today. 75-80 with a scattered shwr/stm in the mix.

Peaked in the low 90's along the shore with dews around 70. Upper 80's inland. She's a hot one today! A top 5 day for heat. Mid July records in town are in the mid 90's.

10 am, and already 80 here in town. Going to be a hot one today. Should peak around 90 or maybe a little better with a light W wind flowing down slope.

Yeah, there has been some smoke moving through the sub this past week.

Mid 80's with low 70 dews. Parade just finished a few minutes ago, and just in time as a shwr/stm complex is starting to move in. Upper clouds have been hazing the Sun a bit today. Interesting note, in my many years here in TH, it has never rained on the parade. Before, and after, yes, but not ON the parade. In fact, an older citizen of the town also noted that it had never rained on the parade. Lots of decades being counted here.

What a difference a few degrees in Latitude makes.

What a hot day. Temps peaked in the upper 80's to around 90 with dews in the low-mid 70's here in town. Mid 80's inland with lower dews. A light S wind off the lake kept humidity up here in town. Stifling! ISH! Heritage days here in TH. We have it every year starting on the second Thurs of July. Started yesterday, but the activities really get going on the Friday (being today). Street dance tonight with live bands. Helicopter rides during the day. Just a boat load of stuff going on. It will wrap up on Sun.

Prelim data in for June. Another warm month in the books. Snow season officially ended as well. Have charts for that, and they're all shown with 5 & 10 yr trends respectively. 2023/24 season was 2nd warmest in the record.

Temps in the low-mid 80's with dews in the mid 60's to around 70. A little warm today. About as much as I care for. Should be a little cooler tomorrow with a lake breeze in the 70's, then a stretch of 80's with a peak in the upper 80's this weekend. Glad that won't last long.

Quick hitting stm yesterday netted 0.36", along with a fairly close lightning strike. Barely a one count before the loud crack. Warm day on tap with 80's on a light W/SW wind. Looks like smoke moving through just to the S & W of me. Thicker in the Dakota's. Hope it stays that way.

Just seen a report of a waterspout that was seen over Lake Vermillion in N MN. Residents of the small towns (Tower/Soudan), on the S side of the lake, witnessed it. Storms my way stayed in the higher terrain. Was cool in town with a strong lake breeze being drawn in on the updrafts. 0.89" was the final tally from yesterday am's stms in town. Looks like scattered stuff the next couple days, but nothing too organized, thankfully. Need to dry out a bit.

Great week coming up. Getting a bit warm next weekend, but not horrible. Garden should really take off. Unfortunately, that damn smoke is back in the picture this week.