Brian D

Happy Thanksgiving guys. Hope your day has been a good one. Off to my daughter's place for family get together, and feasting on this chilly day. Highs in the mid 20's inland to low 30's lakeshore.

Very mellow wx recently. Dry continues. Did have some events earlier in the month, so sitting at 1.35". Nov avg is 2.18" so only need a little more. Had top 5 warmth in the middle of the month which is the only notable wx so far.

Interesting. That looks similar to what I said about Dec. 1st days a little colder, then seasonable/milder back seasonable/colder 2nd half.

Looks like my T-Day forecast is unfolding today, so 2 days late with this one. Not uncommon to have my forecasts end up 1 or 2 days off it seems, but otherwise looks pretty good with the pattern.

GHD looks like high pressure moving in bringing some rather chilly wx. LES probable, as waters should be pretty open still.

2024 right around the corner. New Year's Eve, and Day forecast in the 2023 thread. MLK Day forecast looks mellow with fronts moving along the north areas. Some energy possible skirting the southern areas needs watching.

Yeah, and by Thanksgiving, we'll have highs in the teens n 20's. Winter BOOM! But nothing unusual for Nov.

I think the record today is 68 in 1953. Yesterday was 69 in 1953.

A little OT here, but just came across info on the Leonid meteor shower we have every Nov. In 1833, there was a meteor storm on Nov 12-13. Est 100-200k+/hr rates across the E US. The moon had set in the evening, leaving dark skies for the event to be seen easily. And of course, then, no real light pollution to speak of like we have today. WOW! That would be awesome to witness. Hope something like that happens before I leave the world. Remembering those 2 comets back in the mid-late 90's with awesome tail views in the NW sky. Hale-Bopp was one, then there was another with a Japanese name if memory serves. Rare one gets to see events like that in your lifetime.

I mentioned Feb looking seasonable to colder most of the month. Seems we have seen a few more of those types in recent years than warmer. Jan has the opposite feel. Doesn't mean there can't be a quick snap, tho.

It'll be nice to have some colder wx. Force the trolls back into their caves. Hope a large Beaufort Gyre freshwater release happens soon into the N Atl. That'll keep them hibernating for a few years. LOL Don't get me wrong, I fall in the lukewarmer camp, I just shake my head at "chicken little" nonsense. So that means I believe we will oscillate on a slowly warming trend. But the geo-political situation continues to devolve, so, much more weighty matters are in our face, and could be for many years to come. This verse comes to mind " they shall cry 'Peace, and safety', then sudden destruction shall come". And of course, a massive solar event could put us back into the stone age in just one day, too. CC is just not that high on the list of "OMG's" considering the wars/plagues/natural disasters of history that can easily happen again with much more devastating effects. We can adapt much easier to CC, than if other stuff happens. Alright, enough of that. Hopefully the rest of you will stop with CC stuff, and get back to the topic of this thread, and other threads. I mentioned in an earlier post about my feel for winter, and I said it looked like the 1st half of Dec was going to fall into the seasonable to warmer camp. Still holding to that, except the first couple days could be on the colder side. Back in the Oct thread, I mentioned the seasonable to warmer conditions for the 2nd half of Oct - 1st half of Nov. The late Oct into the 1st days of Nov snap was a bit more aggressive than I anticipated. I never mentioned the 2nd half of Nov, which has a more seasonable to colder feel. And that looks to bleed into the 1st days of Dec. Seasonable can mean slightly warmer/cooler than avg. Aprox +/-5dF of avg is usual fare on a daily basis for seasonable wx.

Very interesting. That's well out of the way of the usual seismic zone just a few hundred miles to the south of there. I don't think there's any fracking in that area either, but haven't checked.

Very nice, but unfortunately, dry wx on tap for the week ahead. 50's feel good. Records are 60's-low 70's, so nothing too close to that. 1999 was the winner this time of year with 70d readings. Remember well the warmth during deer season that year. Sun bathing, and hunting at the same time. Rather easy to take a nap in the stand.

Looks like I'm a day too slow on this cast, but looks OK otherwise.

Oct prelim data in, and ends on a warmer note. Oct's have been running fairly normal, swinging back and forth from avg, in recent years. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

0.25" of rain last night. 1.16" for the month so far. That's about half the monthly normal so doing good.

LES showers moving through right now ahead of synoptic stuff that's moving in. Could get interesting as the sun sets in a short while.

Looks like a couple inches of snow along the higher terrain tonight. Of course, that could blow up to much more. Last year around this time, they low balled snow up that way, and ended up with 1-2'. That just happened with our last snow, too. 5-8" wasn't in the cards in the areas to my north. In fact, they forecast basically nothing for that area. Lake Superior can be a difficult one to deal with in forecasting.

0.91" last night. Good start to the month, and looks like a mix coming in tomorrow.

Batch of heavier rains moving through tonight. Much needed after a drier Oct. Not liking the clock change. Dark too early now. Not an early riser, so it makes winter long.

Yeah, it got split by the midnight hour. 0.9", and 1.8".

Another top 5 record min this morning around the area. Hibbing set a record low of 4. Brimson co-op had a -1, which is a strong record low for their short record. They have only been in the upper 20's for highs the last few days up there. That's chilly. Most of the snow has melted under yesterday's sun, except for the shady places. Area's to the north with 5-8" will take a little longer to melt, but most of the area is forest, so it'll stay around until temps get into the 40's this week. Firearm deer season starts this coming weekend, so that snow will be helpful for the hunt. Deer in my area will start to migrate towards the shore with all that snow up north. The cold, and snow will put the rutting season in full swing. Should be a good hunt this year.

That's 2nd out 7 recorded snows for the date. 8.2" 1991, 2.6" 2023, 1.4" 1932, 0.6" 1884, 0.5" 1995, 0.4" 1954, and 0.2" 1885. But there have been earlier snows greater. 10/20/20 you had 7.9" for that date, which is 2nd to 1991 for Oct snow. And today is tied for 5th snowiest Oct day. This was an impressive event for Oct. Not easy to get 2"+ during the month. Even looking at 2 day events.

Looking at TH records, this is the 2nd snowiest Halloween on record. 4.0" in 1926, 1.5" today, and 0.5" in 1939 are the only 3 measurable snows in town. The 1991 Halloween stm started on this day, but didn't put down much (just a T) until the overnight hours into the 1st of Nov, and the 2nd. That's when the crazy settled in. Partied through the storm in my young, and foolish days. Ran out of booze, and was snowed in

General 1-3" around the area, except for a band that set up to my north. 5-8" under that one. 2" IMBY.