Brian D

Makes it easier to see the venison steaks moving through

Added another 1/4" of rain yesterday. Popcorn shwrs today as the cooler air moves in. Good bye mid Fall, hello late Fall, and a bit of winter too.

My avg's run ~10d cooler overall through the year compared to you down there.

Seasonable to warm the last few days. Just some off, and on shower activity. 1.45" so far running half of avg, and probably not much more to add to that before cold, CA air moves in with snow showers. that'll be a shot in arse, but temps will rebound closer to avg after a few days of mid Nov-ish temps. Low-mid 40's for highs is avg late Oct into the first week of Nov. Upper 20's-low 30's for lows. Avg's really nose dive through Oct-Nov. Conversely for March-April.

Emailed for further clarification on when they issue a WSW. It's more than snow total's for sure. Here the response. Indeed, the Winter Storm Warning is sometimes issued for a combination of hazards, not just snow. Our full criteria is our local policy is defined as: "Winter storm event with snowfall exceeding heavy snowfall criteria during the entire storm “event” time frame (not to exceed 48 hours), or a combination of wind-driven snow, sleet and/or freezing rain" Exceptional situations would be: -Ice Storm Warning if 1/4 inch or more of ice accumulation forecast -Blizzard Warning if blizzard criteria will be met (national standard of Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more) We don't have a long policy that goes into every possible scenario, and we take each winter storm on a case-by-case basis depending on the impacts expected, taking into account not just the meteorological factors like total snowfall, ice, sleet, snowfall rates, snow-to-liquid ratios, wind and wind-driven snow causing blowing/drifting, flash freeze scenarios, etc. but also non-meteorological factors such as the time of day (commute time versus overnight), day of the week, holidays, other local events, etc. We make the decision to issue a Winter Storm Warning when we think there will be a significant impact to lives and property, which usually means that traveling will be dangerous. And even this can be impacted by how roads are treated/plowed, which varies by who maintains the roads (state, county, local) which then in roundabout fashion is strongly influenced by our own forecast - if we fail to forecast snow, roads may be in MUCH worse shape despite lesser snowfall amounts! You may be interested in reading our national policy on winter products for further details: https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf Hopefully that helps to answer your question! It's not a simple answer, but it's always a team approach with sometimes a dozen or more meteorologists at our local office, neighboring offices, and national offices working together to make the best decision.

Went ahead, and emailed NWS Duluth about this change. Here's the response. Take it for what it is, but it seems like they think it will be better, and give them more flex in their issuances. Personally, if it just a snow event with little wind or ice involved, it's not much of a big deal at accum levels of just under 6-8". Those are so typical around the lakes. But snow amounts for an event is one factor. Snow rates, wind speeds, icing are also in the mix. When vis gets low under higher snow rates, and/or combined with wind, that can trigger warnings irrespective of expected event totals. The modernizing of the Winter Storm Criteria has been a two year effort of collaboration between NWS Headquarters, Regional Headquarters, WFOs and key local partners. The goal of this effort was to eliminate County Warning Area boundaries as visible features in the baseline criteria in order to improve decision support to our local, regional, and national partners (specifically, consistent weather headlines). In addition, the new criteria was designed to better represent different climatological regions and better aligns various winter weather toolsets (such as the Winter Storm Severity Index and the Winter Storm Outlook). Additionally, the change to event-based criteria will allow for increased forecaster flexibility and enhanced collaboration and messaging.

Looks like some small changes to WSW criteria for the snow season. Around here into MI. Fine by me. Typical winter wx we all are used too. Nothing to get excited about, unless the winds are up, and ice is involved.

Here in town, about the same as you. Being near the lake, peak is about 7-10 days later than inland areas. Reverse is true in the Spring with leaf out.

1.15" so far this month. 3.03" is the avg for Oct so need a couple more at least. Possible with the parade of lows coming through the rest of the month. Seasonable temps (+/-) the last few days. When you look at anom maps for Oct, it looks like it has been pretty mild for the month in the northern areas, yet minus the first 4 days, you get a different picture. Shows just how warm the start of the month was.

Models have been putting out some interesting runs for the last days of the month. Something will be there, but what exactly. 1991 horror show?

Beautiful mid Oct day. Starts in the 30's, and ends around 60 with clear skies.

Hunga Tonga? Not much, but it did put quite a bit of seawater into the stratosphere. Eruption even hit the lower mesosphere. ~10-15% increase in water vapor at that height, if I remember correctly, in the SH. I'm sure it circulated around some into the NH. With volcanoes, it always about ash, and especially so2. This was a new one for scientists concerning seawater injection.

Watching on YT this very moment. Beautiful! As I post this, it's just now starting to break in NM. 10 mins to go in Kerrville TX.

We end the year with front moving through the N areas, and some energy affecting the S areas.

Christmas this year looks interesting as it looks like storm potential developing. BTW, I totally bombed last years Christmas forecast, so hopefully I'll do better this year.

Going to wrap up the year with these next posts. For Pearl Harbor Day, looks like a front moving in with milder temps ahead. Possible energy sliding in from the west ahead/along boundary.

Dry lake air keeping showers at bay just to the south. Winds 20-30 G35. Temps in the upper 40's. Expect things to start to quiet down tomorrow p.m. with a chilly Sun am. Nice day around 60 Sun pm on your way out.

Enjoy? Maybe when it's time to leave. You should be far enough north to stay away from synoptic precip when you get there, but scattered LER might affect you up that way. Very windy couple days on tap. Friday Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Some LER off the lake this morning ,and winds starting to pick up out of the E/NE with approaching system. Not much precip expected my way, just a wind maker. Good to see that many in the W sub should do OK with this system. Been a drier year in the Upper Mississippi region.

When I worked for a landscape outfit many years ago, we did some work for cabins along the shore. Some of the work we did included wildflower gardens. We would seed a large area with mostly annual wildflowers (a few perennial in the mix), and what a beautiful natural collage of flowers would emerge. Even thought about nixing my own lawn, and doing that every year.

I'll settle this! No precip for you all winter. No need to worry about if it's rain or snow.

Seasonal gales are upon us. Bad day for that crew in 1905. Ore boats were a little on the small size compared to today. And as a side note, NWS DLH is officially done with frost/freeze advisories for the season as of today.

Even seasonable temps can produce snow down that way I'm sure, along with wrap around as the front moves through, and temps drop. So I guess we shall see.

My take from my modelling method is suggesting a seasonable to warmer 1st half of Dec with the 2nd half being seasonable to colder. Most of Jan will be seasonable to warmer with the last week turning colder. Most of Feb looks seasonable to colder with the last week being warmer. Even March looks like a decent flux from week to week. This should keep things interesting.

Here's the data for MSP MSP Top 5 10dF+ from 2nd place. (*) = monthly record March 5, 2000 72 +12 April 21, 1980 95 +11* May 31, 1934 106 +14* Nov 29, 1998 62 +10 Dec 1, 1998 68 +11* Dec 6, 1939 63 +10