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Everything posted by Brian D
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
Brian D replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
If you can upload your pics on your computer (if you have one), you edit them in Paint. Resize, and change format (GIF), and they will be small enough to upload here without using a ton of bytes. I do this with all pics, if necessary, even NWS story board graphics. -
Upper LP hanging out over the Lakes for a week? Interesting.
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My timing is slow with frontal progressions, but the overall pattern I saw is there. Looks like a pretty nice end to summer.
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Only ended up with 0.30" so that looks like that's that for the month, and the summer season. 4.38" (3.48" avg) for the month, and 14.11" (11.76" avg) for the summer. Looks like I might hit 80 today on a down sloping W wind, as well as tomorrow. AM temps will be a little cool with the drier air, tho. My grandson's 1st football game of the year is tonight. It's an away game, so I'll watch it on the internet. He's a HS junior this year. Man do they grow up quick. My other grandson won't be playing, but he's going to be really busy with schoolwork, and an internship at our local clinic. He will be working on his Associate's degree, and he's only a HS junior, as well. He's looking to be a doctor. All his school work will be through LSC in DLH, mainly online for the next 1 1/2 - 2 yrs. My granddaughter did the same thing when she was a junior in HS. It's really nice that our high school has this program for kids to move ahead who qualify.
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So far this month, TH is sitting at 4.08" (3.48" avg for Aug), and that comes from 3 significant events. Later today into tonight expecting another 1" possibly up to 2". So far for this summer, 13.81" (11.76" avg). July was the dry month with only half the avg. June, and Aug on the wet side. Very early Fall like wx again today with a lake breeze, and cloudy skies. Temps in the mid-upper 60's.
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Briefly hit 70 around midday when the sun was out, then a mostly cloudy, breezy aftrn with a stiff lake wind. Looks like a good shot at shwrs/stms later tomorrow, then a couple warmer days as we head into the weekend. Point showing a rollercoaster of temps coming up, and that looks to be the norm in the coming weeks.
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It was a tough one. Fan going full speed to feel somewhat normal.
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Nasty, muggy day here yesterday with temps running 85-90 with low-mid 70 dews. High for today at midnight (75) then stms came through. Reopened the window in my bedroom after stms went through, and that felt good. Temps in the low 70's this aftrn. Looks like seasonable to cooler wx on tap the next few days in the point. Avg's will start decreasing a little quicker now that it's almost Sept.
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Maples here have a tint of yellow showing the time of year. The cooler wx has definitely sped things up a bit. Last gasp of summer heat the next few days, then the inevitable.
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Thanksgiving is late this year, which is typical for a leap year. Looks like it'll be turning blustery, and cold as a boundary moves through starting on Wed. Expecting LES, and as HP moves through the sub, another system will start to affect the W sub during the weekend. Nov in general will tend to be a bit of a rollercoaster with cooler winning out I believe, except the mid part of the month has a rather warm, wet feel to it. Potential strong storms with GOM moisture available.
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Veteran's Day forecast looks pretty mellow with HP over the sub. Chilly, but nice. Possibly some wet wx along the S areas if it's not further S. And can't forget the possibility of LER/S for some.
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Back in July I went ahead, and did a work up of MSP area vs rural area annual data. You can find those 2 posts on page 7 of the July thread. I decided to look at 3 other major cities in our sub. Chicago, Detroit, and Indianapolis. This is what I came up with. Just a note, UHE is a big problem in major cities over the many decades of data. Not trying to diminish what goes on in urban environments. Just trying to show the difference in magnitude between more rural, and urban settings over time. And even smaller towns are affected by the UHE, just on a smaller scale, and that needs to be accounted for, as well.
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Looks like a good call here. Nothing tropical in the SE tho. Wasn't sure about that anyway. Definitely an early Fall feel.
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Seems to me autumn has been in the air off n on all summer. And starting a week or so ago, geese have been regularly flying by here. Yesterday saw the most activity with many flocks on the move. Regular movement for this point in Aug seems a bit early to me. Every Aug sees some sporadic movements, but this is becoming a little much. Wx in CAN must be getting pretty cool. And I noticed that there's still a big chunk of ice in the W Hudson Bay. That should have been gone 2-3 weeks ago. That being said, forecast has 80-85 for the weekend around here, so summer is still around, thankfully.
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1.70" of rain yesterday into the night (2.62" for the month). Much needed. Cool, foggy am. More showers possible later today. Then another stretch of dry wx with temps running 75-80.
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From 70 along the shoreline to 80 inland on a breezy SE wind. Nice day. Saw my 1st flock of CAN geese fly overhead, and the Chickadees are very active today. There's your sign! Summer months are in their closing chapters around here. Looks like 1-2" of rain tomorrow from the LP moving through. Need that. Been on the drier side lately.
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Summer 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Brian D replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Thought I'd post this here. Stratospheric H2O content is finally starting to normalize after the Hunga Tonga eruption in Jan 2022. That was an awesome eruption event. "Shot heard around the world" type event. Scientists have never had an opportunity to research this type of eruption before, so it was something new for them to observe over the last couple years, and the potential effects it had on global climate. Massive seawater injection well into the stratosphere. The excess water first spread throughout the S Hemisphere in 2022, then made its way into the N Hemisphere in 2023. Very cool stuff. Drying trend should continue through the rest of the year, and that means back to normal soon. -
Low 80's with dews around 60. Very nice day. Summer finely returned.
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0.70" of rain last night. It was a nice steady soaker. Very cool today, and tomorrow with highs hovering around 70, and low 50's in the am before summer returns this weekend with upper 70's-low 80's. Need to squeeze out more summer wx because it will fade fast in a couple weeks around here.
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Chihuahua chillin by the barrel stove
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New dataset available that goes back to 1845. I have a dataset that goes back a little further, as well. So with 2 sets, can post an avg from 1845-1849. That will be the new start year from now on. Very little difference overall, but thought it would be nice to repost July back to 1845.
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Chihuahua showed up for Dog Days
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Prelim data in for July, and we have another avg July in the books. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.
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After today, much better.
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CA front moving through the N with shwrs/stms. LP that I have noted is running a bit more N than I thought along the boundary, and coming in the W sub on Monday. That will affect the southern half of the sub Mon-Tues. So I was too slow on the N part, and too quick on the S part.