Inexperienced staff. Not used to the weather there. Not sure how often staff rotates, but even up here that can happen. I've literally emailed them at times to give a little advice with the lake. What I've seen over the years. Example: Last winter there was a long fetch from the NE coming from open water there across a nearly ice filled head of the lake. They had snow totals forecast around the head of the lake very low. Sent an email that evening letting them know that the snow would come much harder with all that ice keeping temps really cold, and so causing the moisture to precip out much quicker, and stronger than they were anticipating. The next morning, they up the totals more, but still low balled it for the downtown/west Duluth area that gets hit hard on conditions like that. Models can only give so much at times. Experience with lakes helps lots.