Brian D

And so it begins again. UGH!

Yeah, I cringed a bit when I put up my forecast. Fingers crossed for stellar viewing.

Speaking of the eclipse, I put my forecast for it on the Holiday Forecast thread today. Wx been so boring around here, and dry. Classic El Nino wx I guess. And I'll be posting Feb/Winter anom charts a little late this month. Want to wait for more datasets to report. Gonna be close to the record of Feb 1998, if not beat it.

Forgot about the solar eclipse. Hope this is wrong, but a quick moving front on the 7th-8th moving through our region. If this pans, hopefully it'll be through before the start of the event during the afternoon.

A few days to go, but pattern looks good so far for mid March. Need more precip my way tho.

On May Day (May1st) looking at a front moving through with chilly air behind.

On Earth Day, April 22nd, I'm looking at a front moving through with possible energy running along the boundary. Should kick up some wx followed by some cooler air.

Since Easter ends March, and April 1st is indicated with my forecast for then, there isn't much for holiday or observance in April. There is, however an observance for National Library Worker's on April 9th. Looks like a system will be moving in bringing some warmer weather, and a threat for showers/stms.

Winds kicked up last night, and still running up to 30 mph off the Lake. Temps stable in the upper 30's. Forecast highs for today a little overdone. Usually it's the opposite. Need precip badly. Avg is 2.2" for Jan-Feb, but only have 0.79" so far this year.

So from what I can see, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Milwaukee, and Lansing had their warmest winter this past season. The rest of the longer period stns were scattered in the top 10 (mostly top 5) for the Midwest region in general. Now on to Spring. Technically that is LOL!

For weatherbo in Marquette, MI, Feb was 5th. 1877/78 were 2400 readings, and the rest were 0800. Even making + 1 adjustments here makes no difference. 1998 - 32.6 (~33.6) 1878 - 32.4 1877 - 32.1 2000 - 29.7 (~30.7) *2024 - 29.4 (~30.4)

My neighbors to the south in MSP had a record month. *2024 - 33.3 1877/1931/98 - 31.9 1954 - 31.7 1987 - 31.6 1878 - 31.5 LaCrosse, WI 2nd 1878 - 36.7 *2024 - 35.4 1877 - 34.2 1998 - 34.1 1882 - 33.7

Feb at DLH 4th warmest. 1877 - 31.3 1878 - 31.0 1998 - 29.0 *2024 - 27.3 1931 - 26.1 Here in TH it was 4th (raw) as well, but it's 0700 reading now since 2021. PM the rest of it's history since 1894. That would make it 2nd with at least a +1 correction. The other years would receive an approx - 1 adjustment for pm readings. 1998 - 31.4 (~30.4) 1931 - 28.6 (~27.6) 1987 - 28.0 (~27.0) *2024 - 27.9 (~28.9) 2012 - 27.1 (~26.1) Very dry Feb here in TH at 0.27", but tied 15th for least precip. Only 0.3" of snow for the month ties 1st with 1998 as least snowiest.

Cold day here with am temps -sd's and currently running in the mid teens in the early pm. 0.1" of snow from the snow showers yesterday. Rapid warm up for the weekend with a chance of rain before temps go back to more avg early next week.

Throwing in Marquette, MI record, shows similar. Should make a note here. MAR was 2400 readings until Jan 1979. Then went Co-op in May 1979 at 2100 readings. Then to 0800 readings in Aug 1996. Winter time adjustment would avg + 1-1.5F. That makes the avg DJF much closer in the rankings for this season, and 97-98/2001-02. 1877-1878 - 30.7 *2023-2024 - 29.1 1997-1998 - 28.4 2001-2002 - 27.4 1931-1932 - 27.1 Starting with 0800 time, MMTS was put in place, so a digital set up locks in the time, and auto resets I believe. When using Max/Min set up, observers would have to manually reset when they took readings, leaving the actual reading time a bit in flux as people are not robots.

Looks like a solid 2nd place for DLH this winter, but still 3F cooler than 1877/78. 1877-1878 - 28.0 *2023-2024 - 25.1 1997-1998 - 22.4 1881-1882 - 22.0 1930-1931 - 21.5 MSP will have this one in the bag by 1F. *2023-2024 - 30.0 1877-1878 - 28.9 1930-31/2001-02 - 26.8 2011-2012 - 26.2 1881-1882 - 26.0 And just a few miles down river at LaCrosse a solid 2nd about 2 1/2F cooler than 1877/78. 1877-1878 - 34.2 *2023-2024 - 31.6 1881-1882 - 29.6 2001-2002 - 29.2 1997-1998 - 28.8 Looks like MSP is a hotspot up this way in the our part of the sub.

Light snow with W/NW winds up to 25-30. Temps peaked around 1 pm in the mid 40's, and now down to upper teens at almost 5 pm. Can feel this old house breathing the cold air. Chilly!

This will just be a rude slap in the face this evening/tomorrow.

Been a day or two since I was able post anything like this. A little winter in the offing.

Personally, as horrible of a winter as it has been my way, it's also great to experience one from almost 150 yrs ago. Reminds me of the winters in NJ back in my Army days. Folks would complain on the little bit of cold that would show up, and I would just laugh at them. "This is nothing, man. You guys don't know what a real winter is like." Of course, most of my buddies were southern boys, so I get it.

Birds flying around, dry leaves blowing around in mid Feb. Love it! Glad to have experienced such a mild winter that's so similar to 1877/78. Looking ahead, I see GFS wants to spin up a storm around leap day. My modelling suggests LP in the region around that time. There is potential. A little winter would be nice to see as well.

So-so cast here. HP over CA, but southern LP was much further S along the Gulf. Boundary to the W. Looks like some energy moving into the region on the 20th with little fanfare before a stronger LP moves in around the 22nd as a rain maker in the S areas.

You need SWE data along with that analysis. That would be helpful, but don't think there's any early data with that metric. If there is, take a look at that. Early data also tends to have more missing data, as well. Oh, and that stn is also threaded. Actual proximity to the lakeshore, and elevation in it's history is a big player.

Awesome man! Yeah, bringing new ones in is soo cool. Cherish every moment, even when they get older, and a bit naughty, and think they know everything. LOL You never know what the future brings. Losing my youngest was/is the toughest thing I've ever gone through. May you, and your family be greatly blessed!

Just looking ahead, July will be the month to watch this summer. If the pattern I see pans, a hot, dry stretch is in the offing in mid July. Expecting 100's. We shall see.