Brian D

My thoughts for the 2nd half of Dec warrant this. When you have to, you have to. Sometimes they taste horrible, but others....not so bad. Let's see how the rest of my forecast goes that I posted earlier.(Most of Jan seasonable/mild with late Jan thru most of Feb being seasonable/colder with a seasonable/warmer end).

Thing of it is, I've seen the same talk when Nov's (and Feb's too) were really warm 20 yrs ago, and all the hype with that, then patterns changed towards colder years. Crickets! A warm string of years portends nothing. Wx patterns, and their timing are so much more complex, especially across NA continent. The NC US is a great place for wx weenies.

And for those saying that Dec's are becoming the 2nd Nov's. Have we so soon forgotten the very Dec like Nov's these past years. Just sayin.

Might as well add Jan, and Feb in the mix.

Adding this to help visualize December past and present. Of course this year will be a strong + anom, but overall, nothing out of the ordinary yet. Added standard deviation to show that we are currently still running well within that, with the typical strong positive/negative years falling outside that range. Std Dev is about twice as large in the winter months than summer.

Looking like a mess Christmas eve day, but exiting shortwave may allow for some snow on the ground Christmas morning, at least in the higher terrain. Storm watch starting Christmas day looks interesting up my way, especially for the hills. Had this noted in my Holiday thread.

Winter storms with near blizzard/blizzard conditions are very cool. Don't get me wrong, still a wx weenie, there's just the practical stuff that goes with it that gets harder as you age. I remember last winter we had a thunder sleet event with pea sized sleet. That was really cool!

There are a few in my neck of the woods that become "snow birds" when they retire. Live here May-Oct, then head to AZ or FL ( or wherever) for the rest. It does get tougher to deal with cold, and snow as you age. I like living along the big water here because the wx is tempered a bit, and of course I grew up here, and all my family lives in the wider area in general. I have strong roots here, and couldn't afford to have to 2 homes, anyway.

1.39" of needed precip over the last couple days. Looks like 1-3" of snow being reported in some locales north of me. Best shot at any decent snow for me is looking like Christmas. As I told my grandson, it's going to be close call for a white Christmas.

I'm in your camp. Brutal winters have there interesting qualities from a geek perspective, but milder is nice too.

They mentioned the World Series earthquake in SF. I remember that game (lack of one). Was in the Army in NJ at the post NCO/Enlisted Club (bar) sitting there starting to watch, when the announcers all of a sudden got confused/worried looks on their faces. "I think we are having an earthqu......" then fuzz (off air). That was random (or may have said bogus which was used more then ). WTH! Found out a few minutes later with breaking news about the quake.

What a wet couple days, such a waste of potential snowfall. Could have had a robust snowpack with this one, but...... Oh well. precip much needed with 1.31" so far, and still coming down. 1.56" is avg for the month, so we are right there with that.

Yeah, that was a strong surge of warm air from the SW. Records fell handily across our SW sub that day. Here's the map.

That really depends on late Nov-early Dec temps, and snow cover. Last year we had so much snow early, that frost wasn't an issue either. It's not an uncommon thing. When you have sd's into neg temps overnight more regular, the frost goes deeper quicker, unless the snowpack is robust. There may be some frost in the wooded areas, but temps, and lack of snow cover this year probably have kept the frost from going down much. And I wouldn't be out on any ice today.

Moderate rainfall in progress this morning. This is really needed. It's soaking in just fine.

Started at Accuweather back in 2007, then Joe (Chicago Storm) invited me to another one a couple years later after Accu was getting bad. Then just faded away for a few years until I ended up here. I wanted to get back to wx forums again, so I did a search, and found this one and another. The other one needed admin permission to be a part of, and I didn't get a reply. Signed up here, and I see Joe posting. Go figure.

In the end, both extremes of temp come with their dangers. Tough stuff, and yet our ancestors dealt with it all the time. Sometimes at the cost of their lives.

She's right. Wind cuts like a knife. Draws heat right out of you.

Darn right it is. That crap will hurt you.

It's thick enough up north here to walk on. Down your way is pretty iffy yet. But it'll form quick, and thicken with the colder wx.

That's why we are all wx weenies. Love the changeable nature of this great creation.

Lack of snow makes ice fishing so much easier. Nice to be able to walk across the lakes without loads of snow, and slush under that. I like to be able to drive across the lake, and hit various spots with ease. Silver lining with the lack of snow I guess.

Usually true. Gonna be close me thinks. Looked at Duluth, and the last brown Christmas was 2006 for them, at least over the hill there at the airport. Shoreline of the lake can see them more often. Every foot of elevation counts around here.

Yeah, just a dusting from some robust snow showers very early this morning around here. My grandson asked me if we were going to have snow for Christmas. Told him it would be a close call with 50-50 chance. Still expecting something just before or on that day, but will it pan? We shall see. Have that in the Holiday thread. TH co-op has snow depth readings of 0 for a few years on Christmas being right on the shoreline, The last was 2018. I'm ~ 1 mile from the shoreline, and can have slightly more otg than down there. Topo is unique for TH as it is the only place on the North Shore that has a more gentle rise. There is a big hill in the midst of town, tho. Reminds me of an ancient landslide. Probably was, and massive.

Uffda! No envy here.