IronTy

I give JB a hard time but I've been paying for WB for years and pretty faithfully watch his videos. Unlike most of the dildo mets on Twitter JB is usually pretty clear and concise at explaining things and is entertaining to listen to. His AccuWeather background clearly helps his presentation. And you gotta respect how much he loves weather despite his weenie cold bias which he openly admits these days.

JB always falls into the same trap. Before the season they generally issue a reasonable winter forecast but then he gets sucked into wishcasting epic snows and cold but eventually he has to capitulate and go into exile and wander in the woods wondering where he went wrong. But if you go back at the end of the season and look at their official winter forecast it's often not that far off. So if he would just stick to the original forecast instead of letting feelings get involved he would be ok. He's definitely a true weather weenie when it comes to snow.

I'm trying to stay positive but persistence pays off and it's been persistently warm and dry. I'm starting to accept that we need something major to come along and just completely reshuffle the deck. Something big like Yellowstone or a meteor impact.

One of my weather textbooks talks about how sensitive long range modeling is to any perturbation in conditions. I can't remember which model it was, but one they discuss how even running the model twice in a row with the exact same starting conditions produced wildly different results just due to a difference in rounding of decimal places at a single calculation between runs.

Man, when was the last time we got a proper noreaster around here. I'm not even talking snow - even one with just rain? seems like when I first moved out here in 2004 we got them regularly. They are pretty rare nowadays. maybe it's just confirmation bias.

26F when I woke up. I think the petunias might've caved. Record early this year. Manifest destiny.

44F and we have some sort of sleet coming down here.

My home totals: 1. Calvert = 0 2. DC = 0 3. Swanton = 18" (11/22)

Is that Jesus in the pic? Biblical storm? Nice corona.

Tried to go snowshoeing but apparently the rubber straps on our shoes finally got brittle and cracked after 15yrs so had to just hike instead. Misty and foggy at times at 35F. Tested out the snowblower and all appears to be working. Going to head into Oakland now to Firefly farms cheese shop. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

First look outside this morning, right at freezing and flurries on and off. Luckily the wind has died down. We def got at least a foot but the ground was so warm that the bottom layers have melted a bit so it's hard to tell exactly how much. Going to use it as an excuse to try the snowblower out after breakfast. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

We are at the cabin! Most harrowing part of the journey was driving on highways 42 and 55 in nighttime whiteout conditions with snow-covered roads. Once I got off road and engaged the diff locks we were good with the snow. Snowing pretty hard up here and obv very windy. We have about 8" on the ground right now so far. I don't have any lights other than headlamps so we'll survey things and report back in the morning at daylight. Plan on going snowshoeing after breakfast. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

Builder just called me and said they had about 4" on the ground now up on top of the mountain. Even better...they commissioned the HVAC this morning so I'm gonna have HEAT!!! Camping in the lap of luxury. Gotta fill up the gas cans and leave downtown DC in about 90mins.

Snow in Bloomingdale!

Just arrived at our house in DC. Truck is all packed to depart from here tomorrow afternoon for the trek westward. Chilly and windy in DC. I did realize I forgot my bow saw to deal with any possible windfall on the drive up the mountain. Hopefully it won't be needed. Last time up there during the hurricane remnants I had to cut my way back down off the mountain due to 4 fallen trees.

Just got back from the grocery store so I have the food all stocked up. All that's left is Final Preps.

You're right, I gotta pull it together.

GFS is earlier and wetter it appears. That's gonna stress me out a bit driving out there Friday evening after dark.

Winter storm warning hoisted for Garrett cty. 12-18" on the ridge tops.

Oh man I'm so pumped. It's only Tuesday! I'm leaving from Calvert at about 330pm Friday and am not looking forward to the beltway traffic.

Snow chains confirmed. We're fully locked in here.

You heard it here first back in July. This winter is gonna be rockin'

Time flies. We just started the A-frame this summer so this is actually the first trip out there without a tent. Gonna be nice. No kids, just my wife and she knows what she signed up for, and generally gets excited for camping stuff as well.

Euro is on board for the first week of December storm.