csnavywx

On geologic timeframes, I agree we're in the last act. It's no longer even possible to get a snowball scenario now, insolation is already too high. The drawdown in GHGs over the last ~300-500Mya has mostly neatly offset the increase in insolation over time but that parameter space is now limited on the downside. I would venture a guess that current continental drift resulting in another supercontinent+2-3% insolation puts temps well above Eocene levels and ends the golden age of habitability. In either the short or long run, if you pancake the ETP temp gradient with either GHGs or insolation, you kill off most marine life during the transition. If it happens quickly enough, then you can end up with Canfield oceans -- which I would describe as a weird form of undeath (purple water and green atmosphere from euxinic conditions). In the very short run, we're extremely close (450ppm) to tipping over in the Southern Ocean with regards to ocean acidification causing widespread aragonite undersaturation, what I would consider the first step in that process.

Dangerous risk of termination shock and unexpected circulation changes. But I do think it will be done anyways.

Planck feedback/response stops any sort of Venusian runaway on this planet. Would take much higher insolation to get us there. Much more worried about plant and/or soil carbon stock turning unstable at current temperatures. It's been showing signs the last few years, esp with large emissions from respiration. South America and southern Africa in particular do not seem to be taking it well. Some of this is probably due to monsoon trough migration via differential hemispheric heating and boosted non-CO2 warming recently from aerosols and higher-than-trend CH4, causing a lopsided NH response. But if the Amazon and southern African tropical sinks can no longer provide a brake, then that will cause an immediate and relatively strong increase in the airborne fraction.

Isn't there a pretty well documented increase in C/EPac trade winds over the last 40+y? I'd think that (plus the aerosol pattern effect) would have a pretty drastic effect on SST patterns and the downstream Pac climate indices. Also probably can't get away from the insane post-2020 NPac/NAtl warming (N Hem in general) and the effect it's already having on the position of the ITCZ/monsoon trough via response to differential warming.

Actually really like this setup for some semi-discrete or discrete cellular activity (as shown by the NAM). While the best forcing goes north with the surface low and south with some trailing mid-level forcing and better cape, there is still some forcing for vertical motion here and some weak capping with halfway decent CAPE. Could be just enough to suppress crapvection and allow for more discrete activity to thrive, esp towards/just after sunset.

TRACC/CMIP-6 is already behind the curve: On full blast from here with Med shipping sulfur emission controls taking effect this year.

The fact that this comment by JP didn't get more press is really fucking alarming. He's basically telling you what's going to happen to the housing market and by extension -- the economy, in the future.

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

Ended with: 1.5"-2.5" (north to south) at KNHK. 2.7" at house, 4.5" at Ridge and 6" at Pt. Lookout entrance. High ratio fluff with a very impressive accumulation gradient.

Took a little drive down to Ridge and Pt. Lookout after the road crews went through. 4.5" in Ridge and 6.0" at Pt. Lookout entrance. Very fluffy, high ratio stuff. Very sharp gradient!

Insanely sharp gradient here. 1.5" on north side of KNHK, 2.0 on the station itself and nearly 3" on the south side of the base and at my house. Bet Pt. Lookout to SBY ends up somewhere over 5"

Can only imagine what this sucker could've produced with a full phase. Ah well -- we've got the next 3-4 weeks and hopefully a weak +ENSO/-AO year to play with next year.

That mesoband should be around for a few more hours. Slow mover as that H7 frontogen. zone gradually pivots overhead. Should cash in pretty hard for the areas that get it. It was producing a pretty solid 3/4"/hr for a while here. Looks like around 1"/hr under the core of it right now.

Solid mesoband established from NHK over to far southern DE. Coming down at about 0.75"/hr here.

Half mile in moderate snow under this frontogen. band. Hopefully sticks around for a couple of hours.

Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity.

Eesh. At this rate, we might be lucky to get 20 inches of cirrus. We'd have been better off without the TPV, tbh. Would've at least gotten a decent southern slider, but it's getting swept and suppressed so far south that we're almost out of the track range.

Yep -- for a big storm anyways. Can still get a light-moderate event just from relatively favorable track of the southern wave effectively being a slider. But in order to keep a big storm, we need the northern wave to play ball at least a little bit.

Yeah, that SE trend can stop now. About out of room for everyone except Salisbury and Wallops.

I prefer starting there too. In this case, I would not expect the GFS to cover the gap between it and the EC in just one run, esp since previous runs weren't getting most of the snow from the coastal and the developing mid-level low. So, if it's heading that direction, you'd *expect* to see a dip in QPF first, then rise again if it latches onto more of an EC-type evolution.

Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out).

EPS inched up to 0.8-1.0" liquid mean.

Overamps the NS wave, brings in warm air aloft and delays the coastal. GEM delayed the coastal from the other end (prob partially due to diabatic/latent heating). 12Z EC doesn't and it's right through the uprights. In fact, if I were going to draw us up a near-perfect setup, that EC run from 96-120h is pretty hard to beat. 700mb low develops just west and flow goes *SE* with some 1-3"/hr rates in there likely.

At first glance, it's just having some issues with convection and latent heat/diabatic processes near the Gulf Stream that cause a delay in coastal development. Wouldn't be heading to the panic room over it.