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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    31.8. Now we stay below freezing for a while.
  2. MN Transplant
    Flurries and the breeze picked up
  3. MN Transplant
    Mulch is whitening. That’s a win, right?
  4. MN Transplant
    The cold air at the surface always lags due to the Apps
  5. MN Transplant
    They probably do. The mesoscale models aren’t putting out massive short-term temp drops, though. Partially because we are going to step down to the low 40s before the front, and partially because the low level cold always takes it’s sweet time crossing the Apps. In the end, I think the daily number will look most impressive.
  6. MN Transplant
    Fairfax County failed to pick up my leaves on time this year. I’m thinking that they are going to have a rough go of it if they try next week. Trying to find a good name for this soon-to-be-frozen pile. Leafburg? Rock Leafster? 1.94”, 52.9
  7. MN Transplant
    NAM Nest joins the HRRR in keeping us below 20 on Christmas Eve. Still, a bit different from my home territory.
  8. MN Transplant
    Front timing is still 9-10am along 95 tomorrow. HRRR a touch faster than the NAM. HRRR still more aggressive on the cold, but the NAM 3km is now <10 for most of us tomorrow night.
  9. MN Transplant
    Heaviest rainfall rates of the day so far. Up to 1.42" total, 52 degrees.
  10. MN Transplant
    More fun climo stats. There have been 68 days in DCA's climate record with a 40+ spread between high and low temps. Most of those are in the distant past. There have only been 5 cases in the past 40 years: 3/23/1994 - 83/39 1/19/1996 - 62/20 (the Potomac flood final push) 12/22/1998 - 67/24 4/8/2000 - 78/38 1/13/2018 - 62/21 We might be able to add to this list tomorrow if we can hold the 50s until midnight.
  11. MN Transplant
    I think Christmas Eve has a solid chance of being the coldest December day since 12/22-24/1989 (17/5, 22/7, 23/10). Really just needs to surpass 12/20/2004 (24/11).
  12. MN Transplant
    It looks like the HRRR is running 4-5 degrees colder than the other models, so 10 is a better forecast. Still, a pretty good situation to get DCA low since we aren’t counting on radiational cooling. My lowest December temp since getting my station in 2011 is 13. Should have no trouble beating that.
  13. MN Transplant
    The 12z HRRR is calling for a near record low at DCA (5 degrees, 1983) on Saturday. I don’t recall off the top of my head the last time DCA was in the single digits. 2019?
  14. MN Transplant
    Now -13. Good stuff. 56 drop in 3 hours.
  15. MN Transplant
    Cheyenne, WY 43 degrees at 1:05pm local. 11 degrees nine minutes later.
  16. MN Transplant
    Yes, I didn’t mean to imply that the model was handling it incorrectly, only that the accumulation maps were not showing the entire picture due to processing choices. There is no physical/meteorological reason why there is a hole in the accumulation product NW of Philly, for example.
  17. MN Transplant
    Here's further proof that some of the snow maps we are seeing from the GFS are simply processing artifacts. Check out the following examples from Dupage and Pivotal. The snow accumulation products are clearly not able to handle the fast-moving front and are incorrectly partitioning the precipitation between rain and snow. However, the snow depth products do not have the same problem. The GFS may still be wrong about 0.5-1.0" on the backside of the front, but that is the actual projection.
  18. MN Transplant
    While I generally agree with the overall sentiment you are conveying, there is a real chance that DCA may see a record low max on Christmas Eve (current record, 23). This is a very solid cold air shot one month before our peak climo cold.
  19. MN Transplant
    This is as the front is coming through my area of the DC burbs.
  20. MN Transplant
    The 6z NAM Nest was a good scenario for us. One interesting thing that has been happening is that the models have done away with the Friday morning warmth. Instead of the 50s, we are in the lower 40s before the front blasts through.
  21. MN Transplant
    Good to know. What is the time step now for the GFS?
  22. MN Transplant
    Here's an example from CoolWx, with hourly GFS output. It still has to assign a precip type to an entire hour period, and I'd be willing to be that the little spike there is not all snow precip in the model. Below that is a cool vertical view of the temperature structure.
  23. MN Transplant
    Looks like peak gusts in the mid 40s to around 50 on Friday per the GFS, Euro, and ICON. Potentially higher near the Bay and for our upslope friends.
  24. MN Transplant
    Everything about that map screams temporal resolution problems.
  25. MN Transplant
    I assume the snow algorithms are just having a tough time with the speed of the front.
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