MN Transplant

One thing not to like on the 3km NAM - the intense rainband at 10pm when it is 33 degrees. 1” frozen through 7pm 1” not frozen after that through 1am

Yeah, about a 16z changeover, maybe a quarter inch of precip. Sleet looks like it could be significant. The NAMs are basically calling for 2-4” for the DC area and then a nasty ice mix.

3z - 850s of +10, surface temps of 33/34.

0.9” qpf, frozen, by 00z at DCA. Losing the surface at that time, though the 950s temps are still cold.

No, we are sleet by 18z.

Looks like a 3-4” snow around DC which is in line with some of the others. Not a NAMming, but another sign that says it’s going to snow.

This is acceptable.

The Euro is by far the most aggressive in pushing the upper level warmth north.

3km looks just fine. 0.4”-ish QPF for DC through 16z, which seems to mark the changeover.

Half a foot of snow (at least) and then just pounds sleet. 1.6” frozen qpf!

Holds the column in DC until 18z. Nearly 0.7” by that point.

Back to the NAM for a minute, the stoutness of the cold is really solid. These are the 925mb temps at 21z, long after we've lost the upper levels. To this point 1" of QPF has fallen out west and ~0.8" in the 95 corridor. The NAM really has almost this entire event as frozen of one sort or another.

Yeah, but that looks believable. We often see a lull in a transition region between types. I could absolutely see an initial band of snow, and then a lull, then it fills in with sleet/zr.

Remember that the temperatures are most tenuous above 850.

We don’t have access to the good data, but the FV3 clearly loses the column somewhere around 15z Wednesday in the DC area. At that time ~0.45” of precip has fallen. So, the FV3 is calling for a 4-5” storm followed by slop. A bit more than the Euro, a bit less than the NAM. The TT snow maps are bad because they are snowing 10:1 ratios for sleet. Actual sleet ratios are like 2:1.

Well, winning with ~a month of potential winter still to go isn't that impressive. The leaderboard will look different by Wednesday evening, I'd guess. With so many people going high, it seemed that the safer bet was closer to climo. So, I was playing the board as much as playing the game.

66 very nice degrees

If I win, this place will have burned down.

33.3 and rain. A little ice on elevated surfaces. Looks like a truly awful day.

Report from northern VA. 33.7. Nothing happening. Rained today.

Freezing rain, 31.6

I’m imagining the Imperial March as I loop the CC

Might need a flood watch.

If we ever had them, we've already lost the 850s by this time.

000 SXUS71 KLWX 051905 RERDCA RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 204 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2019 ...RECORD HIGH SET AT WASHINGTON NATIONAL DC... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR WASHINGTON DC SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1991 AND 1890. WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE 1941. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA BACK TO 1945, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON FROM 1871 THROUGH 1944. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA EXTEND BACK TO JANUARY OF 1872, WITH PRECIPITATION RECORDS EXTENDING BACK TO JANUARY OF 1871 AND SNOWFALL RECORDS EXTENDING BACK TO JANUARY OF 1884. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI)