MN Transplant

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band
  2. DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know.
  3. 3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play.
  4. That’s a 30”+ run for the two systems for you.
  5. NAM is a torch. Low from Wilmington to west of Va Beach. Still irrelevant.
  6. The offense and defense played it right there with Tampa. The Special Teams...not so much.
  7. Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after.
  8. We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run.
  9. I got 3”. Nobody likes to talk about March 2013, but that is another forum divider.
  10. Different model runs. Conclusion still valid, though.
  11. Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive
  12. We lose the column below 850 at DCA at the 21z and 00z panels, but certainly better than the mesoscale models.
  13. My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
  14. I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.
  15. Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.
  16. You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.
  17. We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one.
  18. Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega
  19. I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens.
  20. It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.