MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band
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DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know.
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3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play.
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That’s a 30”+ run for the two systems for you.
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NAM is a torch. Low from Wilmington to west of Va Beach. Still irrelevant.
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The offense and defense played it right there with Tampa. The Special Teams...not so much.
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Always worry about depending on the backside, but that’s how we’ll play the game. New snow depth up to 00z Thursday, and then after.
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Better than 12z
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We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run.
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I got 3”. Nobody likes to talk about March 2013, but that is another forum divider.
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Different model runs. Conclusion still valid, though.
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Had to!
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Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive
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We lose the column below 850 at DCA at the 21z and 00z panels, but certainly better than the mesoscale models.
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My in-depth analysis of the hour 84 NAM is that it exists. And now we wait for the 12z GFS.
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I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer. One way to visualize is to go to: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation. You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN. Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.
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Agree. I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one. I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.
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You don't want the purple line anywhere! You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.
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We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one.
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Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS. You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2020121306&field=omega
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Here we go.
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I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens.
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It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.
