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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, what is interesting to me is that the ao and nao are turning negative but we will be warm. I know the Pacific is going to be unfavorable. HM said that the reason for the warm pattern advertised is because with the IOD weakening, there will be a lag effect before things get good later. Not sure if he is right or not.
  2. Mr. Kevin
    If the strat and trop couple, we phuked for a long time! No doubt. I personally would like to see the mjo start moving soon. People seem to believe the IOD weakening should help some for us. Ive never seen so many conflicts with models in a while.
  3. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i am in ne Arkansas btw. SSW events like i have been mentioning are tricky. I guess we shouldn't focus on them too much. I would like to get cold from them. Its been a long time since we have. Mjo is confusing people right not it seems like. What it will do moving forward.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    There was just a very brief appearance of the pv into the great lakes and that was that. Whatever we need to have happen to get more excited over a colder stormier pattern moving forward i would like to see. Also, i believe the pv should eventually be back on our side sooner rather than later imo. I know we are in the south and winterstorms are tougher to come by compared to up north.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Hi everyone. Happy Thanksgiving. SSW events are tricky. So many parts to consider. They can be game changers. Last year's SSW really didn't materialize. We had a brief pv visit and thats it. It was a major SSW that didnt fully propagate correctly. I think December will be warmer than average imo. I just would like a 6-8 week Avenue of cold and precipitation.
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, the SSW events are tricky. Sometimes they happen soon and sometimes they take a long time to propagate. It's interesting that Mike Ventrice said a -nam in stratosphere but +nam in trophosphere.
  7. Mr. Kevin
    When did HM respond to that Daniel? Just curious.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, that i heard when the ao goes very positive like indicated, it means that a SSW is underway and the ao should respond accordingly. Im probably crazy for saying that, but i heard it about 9 years ago but can't remember who told me. I know its a different pattern and year, but dec 1984 was really warm with raging ao and nao and end of December, things changed dramatically. If you have any ideas on what could be going on, let us know.
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Hi jomo. We may get cold again when mjo makes it back to the 8,1, and 2 phases? It looks like we are going to warm up for sure once mjo makes it to the 4 5 and 6 phases. Im just confused on all this lol.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, what you think about this winter with IOD and other stuff? I feel that its still early to even guess what may happen.
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