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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    How do we achieve stable blocking for this winter so we aren't chasing unicorns all winter? We look to have a stable ao for a while i think. The Pacific dont look good though. One or the other.
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Bob, i just remember a while back once the eps locked into either a cold or warm pattern in the extended, it didn't waffle as much as recently. It was pretty steady. Perhaps its this convoluted pattern with alot of moving parts that is confusing the models. Just giving you my opinion.
  3. Mr. Kevin
    I may move just to see more snow and ice lol. Whatever is really causing the warmer winters is kinda sad for me since i like winter and its my favorite season.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    I understand psu. The euro and eps i will admit aren't as good as years ago it seems. Both models are more erratic now than in the past. I follow alot of people on Twitter, especially the better more astute forecasters. HM is one for sure. It's not my first rodeo with weather lol. We all want a better pattern but it apparently is going to take a while it seems.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Be nice psu lol. We cant control the weather. Just giving my opinion.
  6. Mr. Kevin
    My money is on the eps 9/10 times. HM said the standing wave is weakening and the warm pattern advertised is a product of the +IOD decreases with the lag effect. Alot of unknowns imo. HM is brilliant, but people sometimes over exaggerate things. I wanted to add that there are varying opinions out there, but the main thing is why are we even seeing this warmer pattern advertised on the eps and why is the Pacific not favorable for cold moving forward?
  7. Mr. Kevin
    I don't believe the gefs on anything really. Its very cold bias and eps has been warm bias. I got an email from a friend who works at UOA in New York yesterday and he believes the mjo is actually two separate areas of convection currently. He said mid January give or take before better pattern. I am curious on why alot of the so called experts think the +IOD is good for keeping mjo in colder niño phases, but don't look like that has happened.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, i don't know what we need to take place for things to look better in the future. Maybe it's not that simple.There are tons of wishcasters out there to get attention, which i guess you have to do if you own a company online for talking about the weather and other things to get clients. I just dont want to be chasing unicorns all winter this winter.
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, what is interesting to me is that the ao and nao are turning negative but we will be warm. I know the Pacific is going to be unfavorable. HM said that the reason for the warm pattern advertised is because with the IOD weakening, there will be a lag effect before things get good later. Not sure if he is right or not.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    If the strat and trop couple, we phuked for a long time! No doubt. I personally would like to see the mjo start moving soon. People seem to believe the IOD weakening should help some for us. Ive never seen so many conflicts with models in a while.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    I think most should focus on the eps because it usually has a better idea of patterns instead of the gefs imo. Overall better track record.
  12. Mr. Kevin
    I talked to a guy at the CPC today and he believes the mjo gets into the warm phases and by beginning of January it could go back to the cold phases. That's just his opinion obviously. Maybe you can answer this. Lets say the mjo goes into the COD after being in the warm phases, is there anyway to tell what phase the mjo could propagate into? Despite the +IOD that i hear about, im surprised if the mjo will go into the warm phases,and if it does, it would be eerily similar to last year.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    NC, happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. I have one question. Is there anyway to tell if and when the mjo may go to the colder phases? I know the IOD is pretty positive right now. I was just confused on what you said here and the below paragraph.
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i am in ne Arkansas btw. SSW events like i have been mentioning are tricky. I guess we shouldn't focus on them too much. I would like to get cold from them. Its been a long time since we have. Mjo is confusing people right not it seems like. What it will do moving forward.
  15. Mr. Kevin
    There was just a very brief appearance of the pv into the great lakes and that was that. Whatever we need to have happen to get more excited over a colder stormier pattern moving forward i would like to see. Also, i believe the pv should eventually be back on our side sooner rather than later imo. I know we are in the south and winterstorms are tougher to come by compared to up north.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    Hi everyone. Happy Thanksgiving. SSW events are tricky. So many parts to consider. They can be game changers. Last year's SSW really didn't materialize. We had a brief pv visit and thats it. It was a major SSW that didnt fully propagate correctly. I think December will be warmer than average imo. I just would like a 6-8 week Avenue of cold and precipitation.
  17. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, the SSW events are tricky. Sometimes they happen soon and sometimes they take a long time to propagate. It's interesting that Mike Ventrice said a -nam in stratosphere but +nam in trophosphere.
  18. Mr. Kevin
    When did HM respond to that Daniel? Just curious.
  19. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, i posted this in the mid Atlantic forum, that i heard when the ao goes very positive like indicated, it means that a SSW is underway and the ao should respond accordingly. Im probably crazy for saying that, but i heard it about 9 years ago but can't remember who told me. I know its a different pattern and year, but dec 1984 was really warm with raging ao and nao and end of December, things changed dramatically. If you have any ideas on what could be going on, let us know.
  20. Mr. Kevin
    I'm probably wrong about this, but I've heard this before that when the ao goes strongly positive that it usually means a SSW is underway and possibly changes down the road. It reaches a very positive state and plummets from there. Color me crazy, but its been a while since i heard that.
  21. Mr. Kevin
    Wxrisk...of course. Everyone reads his stuff.
  22. Mr. Kevin
    Hi bluewave. I haven't posted much on here in a while. I am from northeast Arkansas. I have a few questions. The main thing hurting us in the near future is the mjo heading or in the unfavorable phases. Would that be correct or not? Lastly, do you expect a colder pattern with more staying power to start somewhere in December or will it be later than that? Thanks in advance.
  23. Mr. Kevin
    I think we should focus on the euro and eps moving forward. They have a better track record from experience. They usually have a good handle of things more times than not. I am referring to the teleconnections.
  24. Mr. Kevin
    Bob, do you think we have a ways to go since the -pna looks to last for a while? Troughing on west coast isnt what you want to see imo for sustained cold. I guess the main reason for the -pna is perhaps the unfavorable mjo?
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Bob, from what i understand, the mjo is going into unfavorable phases for colder weather. The -pna is going to be impressive for a while, which i thought is unusual in a elniño pattern or atmosphere. What are your thoughts on this SSW event? Is this the real deal or just a mirage?
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