NorthHillsWx

Feels like a CAD environment this afternoon with cooler temps and east wind

Though I agree somewhat, I think a better solution would be to look at revising the wind speed category system. To me, cat 4 should comprise 130-150 mph, cat 5 should be 150-170 mph and there should be a cat 6, for storms such as Dorian and Irma. I think the difference in wind magnitude between a 160 mph hurricane and a 180 mph hurricane is enough to justify a separate category for only the strongest storms on earth.

Some of the videos from this system from New England are more impressive than either of the storms Josh chased in Mexico recently and much more so than the tropical systems that impacted the northeast earlier this year. Pretty high end nor’easter for sure! Seeing lots of gusts in the 90’s and widespread hurricane force winds recorded on land! I love these bombs. Funny thing is if this does acquire subtropical characteristics later on, it will likely be substantially weaker than when it was an unnamed bomb cyclone

I did not realize how dry it had been that way this month

Yesterday was the first borderline severe storm conditions I’ve witnessed imby in at least a year. We weren’t even under a warning but on radar a cell seemed to pop up over my house as part of the line and intensified with a lot of lightning. Probably resulted in localized severe conditions. Lots of leaves, branches down around my neighborhood this morning and part of it lost electricity last night for a few hours. Also some incredibly close lightning strikes. I’m sure I saw some gusts over 40 and there likely were some higher ones around given some of the tree and branch damage on the eastern part of my neighborhood to millbrook rd. Anyways, it was a great storm for the weather geeks in my area and best storm of the year for sure

I was wrong about the evening storms, they did hold together well through the Triangle. It was rocking and rolling here for a minute. Finished to 1.32” for the day

Picked up 0.30” from showers earlier. CAMs have really backed off on the line of storms predicted for this evening, but satisfied with the unexpected rain from earlier

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts

Picked up 0.21” from the frontal passage this afternoon. 3.53” for the month now. Temp has crashed to 65.1 from a high earlier today of 84.0

I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha! Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts

I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes

While I’m sure this strengthens when it turns northeast this is one of the worst model/forecast intensity performances of the season. SHIPS had a very high chance of RI even 24 hours ago for the present time. Seems everything underestimated the north, NW shear. That being said, the system has a vigorous circulation and with shear vector improving and bath tub water beneath it this should still be a strengthing hurricane through LF though it will definitely be a half-a-cane and 85 kts seems like a reasonable ceiling, which is far less than what it seemed most of the week

Pretty sure this is going to be downgraded to a TS based on recon at next advisory

I’m not going to say there’s a 0% chance being it’s over bathtub water, but it’s less than 10% this thing gets even close to major imo. Heck, it’s entire center of circulation is now exposed and recon’s first pass has a small area of stronger winds well away from the center. It’s definitely not strengthening and if anything has weakened since overnight

Pamela really seems to be struggling with some westerly shear and dry air. You can see outflow boundaries from collapsing storms on the NW side and cloud tops are definitely being sheared from the west. Hurricane hunters will be in the storm later today and I’m wondering if they will find more shear is present than being analyzed at the moment. Definitely not the sexy hurricane I was expecting that we’d seen on models over previous few days. NHC continues to advertise the storm being near major hurricane status at landfall but I’m seriously doubtful looking at the presentation this morning and the fact this thing is about to be ejected to the NE. Likely to be a half-a-cane regardless

HWRF brings the low off the NC coast to hurricane status in rapid fashion this evening

May have spoken a bit early . We had 2.56” overnight and still raining lightly. Looks like we were on the very low end in the county too, seeing a lot of 6”+ lollipops your direction

Picked up 0.02” overnight and this morning for the first measurable rain of the month. That makes our 15 day total 0.04” so it’s been very dry. Tonight looks promising so hopefully we can get a soaking rain!

0.01” more than we got or have received today at my house. Had a great storm at Rex hospital yesterday evening where I’m staying as my first child was born yesterday morning! Definitely was a good break to watch the lightning and rain from the room while my daughter napped. Needed it, zombie status today

8 US landfalls including two Hurricanes and a major plus a major (one of the most expensive and damaging hurricanes in history) landfall in Mexico and a strong, rare hit on Newfoundland? I am struggling to see how this alone is a dude, not including the fish storms and ACE

Anyone downplaying this season is a joke. Numbers, ACE, major landfalls… I mean come on

One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery

Sam has cleared out a symmetrical, beautiful eye once again. This is an incredible storm