NorthHillsWx

Gimme that HP look over KY/OH all day

Hahahaha that’s great. WPC saying it’s either going to rain or snow, take your pick

In the CMC ensembles we trust! Some major hits in there

Don’t mind H5 on Euro. Colder = Better

I will take my 1.0” of mostly snow and call it a winter.

Everyone breathe. There’s been no notable trend in models since yesterday other than everything has the storm now and suppression looks extremely unlikely. Pay attention to the lobes of energy moving around the western ridge and the phase with the Baja low. Also watch the antecedent airmass and H5. Really want a stronger HP over the Ohio valley/NE ahead of this system. There’s a good chance nothing resolves today or tomorrow but I expect by tomorrow we will see a trend developing in regards to the phase location and strength. Really hoping this one works out but still not sold given the variables

^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup

I’d take the Canadian Ice storm at this point. Anything is better than today’s weather. Give me anything frozen

Big improvements on GEFS

Stuck at 35.8. Heavy rain now, rain definitely overachieving here. 0.65 and counting, may make a run at an inch (forecast was 0.25-.50)

Something tells me next winter is our chance

This seems off because we had more in 2018 (8” if I recall)

They upped the forecast right before it started. Pretty giant busy up there but I’d take any of it

Those were some ugly model runs last night.

I kinda disagree. Southern slider is a “safer option” but if trends from this run continue this is how we’d get our “big dog”. This was more about track than airmass issues. I mean even with this track it locks RDU below freezing for the event. I guess to your point, 18z is the go big or go home option, but there are a lot of pieces to like about the phase and negative tilt, along with HP placement and cold being established before the storm without screaming southerlies at 850 like we’d seen the last few days. 18z also shows a lot of potential following the storm this weekend. The ridge placement out west looks a lot better for the next system and it delivers cold through the run. While I know it’s likely way overestimated, this doesn’t look like a cutter pattern. One run, I know

Ok I’ll say this. That’s the best run of the GFS in a long time. Why? Less interaction with the LP near the Canadian border. Better antecedent HP location. Negative tilt (obviously). There are lots of things to love about this evenings run even tho it’s primarily a mid Atlantic/NE run for snow. Big improvements in the overall setup. Just a run but that’s what we want

DC 2010 vibes with their foot tonight followed by 2-3ft Saturday/sunday

Looks like a mid Atlantic bomb incoming

A lot of us could use model rehab after the past week+ but this place has been alive for the first time in many a moon

Mod sheet here

GEFS ensemble panels look atrocious but EPS is mildly better for next weekends system. I do not like the lack of a HP over NE with the storm. Cold air especially at ML will be easily scoured out. And the antecedent airmass has modified by 10-15 degrees over the last 5-6 days of model runs. Starting with a questionable airmass and relying on a weak slider seems to be the only way we snow unless models drop the GL low or keep a HP locked in a somewhat favorable location. Flow is all southerly ahead of this system so that’s why you’re seeing some runs with a favorable track and still seeing mix issues. I just don’t like this look at all without major changes upstairs and over the lakes and New England

What’s wild is looking back at the cross polar flow and modeled cold from last weeks modeling, and thinking cold air would not be the issue. Fast forward to now and reality is, cold air is always an issue. We went from a week straight of highs progged in low to mid 30s and lows in teens to just 40’s and lows in mid 20s, not that cold. Just insane miss by models especially given the consensus we had of possibly record level cold

Love how we go from pipe busting cold on the models to 40’s followed by rainstorms during the advertised period

Cold-ish rain incoming

I take it the EURO didn’t work out