NorthHillsWx

I don’t think the Euro changed much at all at 6z. Maybe the NW shift is over. That’s the first run without a NW shift in over 24 hours

I agree. We are all forgetting Euro doesn’t handle CAD well at range. That being said, we’re walking the line between ZR and IP now for most. Up until yesterday it was between SN and IP

Our ZR should melt slowly next week so there won’t be any wasted runoff for drought relief, lol

It still looks like the most impactful winter storm since 2018. Maybe worst ice storm since 2022. Snow is fun. Ice isn’t. Hope people following on here realize that the cliff dive here isn’t bc the storm is going away. It’s because most on here are staring down the barrel of a crippling ice storm. Mets will absolutely not get dinged for ringing the bell of a major storm coming that in all likelihood will cause much worse impacts than if it had stayed mostly snow

A more accurate representation of SE weenies has never been written

I’d be shocked if we missed out on a major sleet-ice storm. It’s hard to imagine a 1040+ sitting north of us and us even approaching freezing. Gives me some hope CAD will trend stronger as we get closer (per usual) and we can get sleet instead of ZR as predominant p type. Yesterday I was pretty confident in that happening but now I’m wavering. Just hope the ice storm like big ice totals are south and east of here but it’s gonna be close now.

It was writing on the wall as soon as ensembles showed max snow north of here. I don’t care if it shows me with 10” if north of Richmond has double that it means we are mixing and that 10” will become 1”. Just a lifetime of watching storms here. I never bit on this being a snowstorm for us but I did think I-85 and north was in a good spot. Now I’m confident you’ll need to go north or Richmond for the best snows, though I think places in southern Virginia get the thump we thought we’d get yesterday

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls: Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas. SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast. Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb

It has dipped to 12.9 at the farm in Louisburg and the airport is sitting at 14! Think that’s the coldest reading for both this season. Sitting at 21.2 here at home. Might fall a little more at both locations

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore).

Save this for the all time fail files: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013634552833425732?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

GFS against the world, what could go wrong?

Like 6”+

If you’re gonna be wrong, you may as well choose a hill to die on

That’s not snow in Georgia or upstate. GFS starts the snow line at the NC border. Think that’s reading the sleet and ZR as snow especially in Georgia. I may be wrong

Sleet maps for central NC will be memorable for this run

GFS drags ZR line to wake but doesn’t look like it makes it to Raleigh proper. Just a pounding sleet storm

GFS ticked north slightly, but mostly unchanged

@eyewall the 6” snow probability for Raleigh is at 0% on the 0z EPS for Raleigh. We’re totally cooked

ICON much more amped. Big jump north again. Basically no snow in NC even at border. Holds the wedge, crippling ice.

I know why we failed: we believed in snow maps actually showing snow in the NC foothills. That should have been the first red flag models were out to lunch

And show HAS to be falling

After what just transpired for this weekend I don’t even know why tracking from more than 3 days out is even worthwhile

Anyone wanna start a thread for the February 2 storm??

Sadly, why this is happening is easy to explain. Models have been moving the trough further and further west for two days. What that does is twofold: dumps cold air further west and leads to an earlier and full capture of the Baja low. Result is an earlier phase, and the SER can flex again with the trough axis to the west. This is textbook coastal fail mode for the SE. The surprising thing to me is simply how poorly this was modeled. We’re talking a 500 mile shift since yesterday morning. With very good blocking setting up, I’m still somewhat skeptical of this cutting straight into the high, but we’re walking a fail line between ice and rain at this point if these solutions are realistic with the NS trough axis. I did not think I’d see a Baja low phase in Texas/oklahoma 24 hours ago but that’s what the modeling consensus shows us