NorthHillsWx

We may not hit 70 today. Cloudy, drizzly 66 at the moment

Low of 56 this morning

Cracked 90 for first time since July yesterday. Topped out at 92.6. Finally got some rain, .02” in the gauge this morning

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks

Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew

Might be DOA

Definitely an increase in models that either don’t develop this at all or keep it weak. Likely a main reason near term track guidance keeps shifting south. Environment around the islands looks fairly hostile for whatever makes it there

The idea this becomes a carribean storm is increasing. One other thing to note is several models show quite a bit of wind shear when the system approaches the islands. Perhaps they are seeing a shallower system that rides further south. Definitely an interesting track evolution from whatever forms here. Might have some hurdles ahead of it but I’d say the threat to land has increased markedly

Low of 59.4 and high of 87.1 today. Maybe we’ll catch some of this line of storms this evening

It’s gotten quite dry in NC since the deluge in the first half of August. But the cooler temps aren’t killing yards like you’d expect after a 2-3 week break in rainfall during the summer

EPS and GEFS both show notable upticks in activity beyond the 10th. As were in the peak of hurricane season that is not surprising. The good news is that at least through mid month, the eastern trough hangs on which continues to be a deterrent to any storm approaching from the east. I think the CAG seen on some GFS runs is overblown as it tends to do but with La Niña developing and a tendency for shear to decrease this time of year I’d expect to start looking to the carribean and southern gulf. SSTs continue to decrease off the east coast from NC northward and I fished Friday out of Morehead and can confirm how much it has cooled. Water was 76-77 until about 35 miles out and warmed to 82 in the stream. Contrast to when I fished last week of July in same location and the temp never fell below 83 from the inlet to the stream and the stream was 87. That’s a huge difference in energy available of anything threatens NC-northward from a month ago. To me, this feels like the lid is starting to come off a bit in the Atlantic and mid month looks to be quite active

Low of 55 this morning. Warmup starts today through Saturday, does not look like we make it even through the first week of September with no 90s (I’m still taken aback that we made it through August without a 90 degree reading) but the good news is yet another fall like airmass moves in to start next week. What a freaking pattern!

58.5 to start the day

High of only 77.2! Low of 53.0 this morning what a day

Monthly stats: Highest temp: 89.1 Lowest Temp: 57.5 Rainfall: 9.18”

Several areas in central NC waking up to 40s this morning to start off the month! We undershot guidance significantly as we are down to 53.2 imby

I think we’re going to undershoot guidance significantly. Currently 59 forecast is 58

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting

We did crack 80 but I’m not complaining. 80.2 and absolutely wonderful out

I’m not sure we crack 80 today. Got up to 79.4 but have fallen about a degree since. Been pretty lockstep with RDU but I think they hit 80.1 last hour

Gotta say that seeing the 540 line dig into the lakes states already on models for next week has me excited for fall

The only thing we can complain about if this pattern continues is it could get quite dry this fall again. Storm track well east of us and dry Canadian fronts with no gulf connection. But after getting nearly 20” over last two months I think most in here are fine with a break

High of 78.6 yesterday. Currently 59 Bottomed out at 58.5

Not to beat a dead horse but holy moly it’s quiet in the tropics

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period