NorthHillsWx

Might be time for the obs thread to refocus

You will have 0.5” of sleet and you will like it!

We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore

Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome”

I’m just happy to be here. I’ll report back my 1/2” on mulch tomorrow

He must be hugging the NAM

The “major” argument may have F’d the rest of the board but when it was created, I was looking at 0” of snow and now almost all models show 3-6” here. Probably sacrificed everyone for Raleigh to jackpot, but that’s a sacrifice I can live with

The UK doubled precip for the triangle

Hey now, we’re the only forum in the game still. NYC, PHILLY, and MA all fell hard but our major winter storm thread has survived!

I’m cautiously optimistic for Raleigh with the 850 trending south and models consistently showing the fronto band overhead. Not too worried about model QPF unless that moves. Think this could be an over achiever

GFS looks fantastic here

Yes. A thunderstorm complex that may or may not exist can completely alter what a CAM sees

It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally

HI RES NAM suffered some convective feedback or initialization issue. Look across the entire footprint of the storm into the Ohio valley, it uniformly cut precip everywhere. That’s not likely correct

Yes. They may have inched their 2-4 line south a hair

I don’t think it’s handling the precip shield with the coastal correctly but the fronto band is showing up nicely and that bonus stuff Thursday looks great. If mid levels are good (I can’t believe we’re still talking about them with this track) this should be a pretty big snow for central/eastern NC, including the triangle

The op never came north of southern Wake. My analysis: it’s going to be extremely close and probably waffles over the city a few times. Northern wake is probably all snow, unless the NAM is correct

GEFS increased for central NC. Not much change in western areas

We’ll probably add a nowcast/obs thread at some point this evening for tomorrow’s storm. That always gets me excited

@Brick Tamland I think you are sitting pretty for a 3-5” storm. That northern wake area east might be the jack. It’s hard to find any *decent* model besides the euro that doesn’t support that

You didn’t just watch the noon news on WRAL and it shows

The mix line is going to absolutely break hearts tomorrow especially if areas just north of it get enough moisture for a big snow. I could be tempted to up the triangle forecast to 2-4” (or even 3-5”) after seeing 12z guidance roll in if I was RAH but they have that mix in their back pocket to keep most of the area in the 1-3” range. If trends continue though I could see Wake upgraded simply bc all of those solutions, even the sleet, are highly impactful if the higher QPF is realized. And northern wake would probably hit warning criteria unless the 12z NAM warm nose isn’t on crack. I don’t think they have to blink until tomorrow morning though unless afternoon models keep increasing. It’s funny, the more QPF we get the trickier the forecast becomes bc the difference of totals in the mix vs non mix areas goes from like Tr-1/2” to 3” on one side or the other to 1/2-1” to 6-8”. The upper margin increases disproportionately

The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter.

It’s interesting to see the consistency of models setting up the fronto band over wake.