NorthHillsWx

GFS looks fantastic here

Yes. A thunderstorm complex that may or may not exist can completely alter what a CAM sees

It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally

HI RES NAM suffered some convective feedback or initialization issue. Look across the entire footprint of the storm into the Ohio valley, it uniformly cut precip everywhere. That’s not likely correct

Yes. They may have inched their 2-4 line south a hair

I don’t think it’s handling the precip shield with the coastal correctly but the fronto band is showing up nicely and that bonus stuff Thursday looks great. If mid levels are good (I can’t believe we’re still talking about them with this track) this should be a pretty big snow for central/eastern NC, including the triangle

The op never came north of southern Wake. My analysis: it’s going to be extremely close and probably waffles over the city a few times. Northern wake is probably all snow, unless the NAM is correct

GEFS increased for central NC. Not much change in western areas

We’ll probably add a nowcast/obs thread at some point this evening for tomorrow’s storm. That always gets me excited

@Brick Tamland I think you are sitting pretty for a 3-5” storm. That northern wake area east might be the jack. It’s hard to find any *decent* model besides the euro that doesn’t support that

You didn’t just watch the noon news on WRAL and it shows

The mix line is going to absolutely break hearts tomorrow especially if areas just north of it get enough moisture for a big snow. I could be tempted to up the triangle forecast to 2-4” (or even 3-5”) after seeing 12z guidance roll in if I was RAH but they have that mix in their back pocket to keep most of the area in the 1-3” range. If trends continue though I could see Wake upgraded simply bc all of those solutions, even the sleet, are highly impactful if the higher QPF is realized. And northern wake would probably hit warning criteria unless the 12z NAM warm nose isn’t on crack. I don’t think they have to blink until tomorrow morning though unless afternoon models keep increasing. It’s funny, the more QPF we get the trickier the forecast becomes bc the difference of totals in the mix vs non mix areas goes from like Tr-1/2” to 3” on one side or the other to 1/2-1” to 6-8”. The upper margin increases disproportionately

The idea that tomorrow’s storm happens and then we jump to spring is absolutely false. Being stuck in phase 8 and the AO looks to tank again in early March. It’s far out but NAO goes to at least neutral at same time (and appears to be tanking). To me after some up and down weather to end February we will likely start March off cold with at least the chance of wintry weather. We lose the pacific though which has been nice through most of this winter.

It’s interesting to see the consistency of models setting up the fronto band over wake.

Nm, slight shift, mainly just noise

Pretty sizable shift NW with precip too

Since *potential* double digits on the coast are extremely cool I get the chase but if this trended better for us, would you stay put?

GFS largely unchanged at any level. Nice run for central NC namely the triangle N and East

If 12z short range models are to be believed pretty much unanimous support to increase precip across the state with RDU looking at 4-6”. That’s not a forecast, that’s what the models show. I’m literally punting the 12k NAM like a football. There is nothing else remotely close to a super amped MA NE coastal. I wouldn’t go crazy adjusting totals or expectations, these models have been up and down. But that’s a good start and they may be getting a read on the system as it is getting underway now. Like I said, heed caution, one run does not a storm make but could be the start of a trend

12k is too north. Its not snowing DC to NYC with this

Just when you wanna hop off the train the NAM reels you back in

NAM beefed up precip

Imo yes. Watch means warning level wintry weather is possible advisory means it’s not it’s not going to reach warning criteria

I knew it was coming when I looked at modeling and RAH updated their totals. I’d laughed at you two days ago if you’d told me this would become a nuisance event but that’s what happens when you lose 1.5” of wintry QPF in that time period. This could get upgraded still assuming it ticks up but it’s the correct call for now

So 12z guidance today will be roughly 24 hours from the system start time. If there’s going to be a last minute uptick, it better start then. While I’d rule out any wholesale changes to the expected storm, even upticks in 0.10” can have a large impact on totals and impacts. We want to see the storm trend any bit west we can buy but most importantly we want to look for models filling in precip over the upstate and piedmont like the 3k did last night. The coastal just isn’t going to cut it we really want to see forcing from the trailing ULL pull every ounce of mid level moisture it can. A lot of times the NW trend isn’t the surface low trending west it’s models catching onto upper level features working to wring out mid level moisture. That trailing band associated with the southern edge of our ULL is also something to watch as that could save the day in western piedmont and foothills. Seeing improved banding or frontogenisis enhancement on the western side of the precip all need to be monitored by the meso models as we are well in their wheelhouse. The idea of a big coastal is gone, but there are enough dynamics at play and just enough enhancement that widespread 3”+ amounts are still possible. I’m not writing this off yet. Trends are not good. We saw the ensembles come down yesterday even though we had some good “trends” on ops (fools gold) but that seems to have caught up with us today. I’ll watch op trends through 0z tonight but we are quickly transitioning to watching CAMs