NorthHillsWx

A location on the Azores is currently gusting to 100 kts

The only good news should this storm stall over the Carolina’s is the very dry antecedent conditions. This has been one of the driest periods in NC since I was born. We have just 0.16” for the month and going back to mid August we have had well under 1/2” for the entire period. That being said tropical rains can and will cause flooding no matter the antecedent conditions but that certainly helps as almost all rivers and watersheds are low There is a favorable environment for strengthening through the Bahamas and the way the MLC presents itself this morning I believe the storm will likely take advantage of that. How well formed it gets there will likely be key to future intensity because it appears there will be southwesterly shear at some point in approach and likely some dry air intrusion but a mature strong cyclone can be more tolerant of that. If it slows down north of the NC/SC border and sits over the shelf water from Wilmington to hatteras it will likely weaken because shelf temps are unseasonably cool, in the 70s. It goes without saying intensity will be tricky but a stronger storm over the Bahamas and quicker speed into landfall would likely lead to a stronger storm on the coast. Anything that takes its time organizing or moves slowly into coast likely stays relatively weak. ATM since this is only a few days away I would think a cat 1 hurricane is most likely with a cat 2 being the ceiling if it landfalls. This is not a region that favors cat 3 landfalls and it takes almost a perfect setup to get one. Add in all of the cat 3+ storms ti affect the Carolina’s were mature hurricanes that had been strong for quite awhile before approaching. This system is basically home brew (I know it’s from an African wave but it will not develop until the Bahamas). In other words, there is not a climo precedent for a major hurricane landfall in the Carolina’s from a setup like this with a storm forming this close. As others have said, rainfall potential is rather high here, again. Given dry conditions as of present it might temper some impacts but 12”+ amounts would be likely if many model solutions verify and that’s… not good

Humberto looks poised for takeoff

One other note that I’ve seen on recent modeling suggests a more favorable pattern for strengthening with a divergent flow aloft and less dry air. Actually somewhat concerned this could be a strong hurricane now. So much has changed over last couple days

Really thinking the odds of this affecting the SE coast are increasing. A weaker Humberto/further separation increases risk further. If Humberto wasn’t there this is going into coast. Still a lot on the table and until a center forms there isn’t a clear solution but the trend on ensembles is clear and we’re seeing ops follow suite. Everyone from northern Florida to the OBX needs to be alert

Still stuck at 0.16” for the month

6z GFS slams the storm into the Carolina’s as a hurricane

High of 93.7 yesterday. Honestly I thought we were done with this

If you’re on the coast from Florida to NC I would be following this closely and make sure you have the ability to prepare if needed. This forecast is as uncertain as it gets relating to a tropical cyclone

I said this yesterday and it holds just as true today but what a crazy TC setup. Some of these model solutions don’t even seem possible with twin strong hurricanes dancing around each other. EPS is concerning as are hurricane models but that being said given the proximity to Humberto, j wouldn’t put stock in ANYTHING until we have a coc and even then the evolution of Humberto will be critical

It looks like a TD already. Modeling is catching up, hurricane models are very aggressive. Also I feel very strongly this wave is a fish storm. East coast surfers are having a hell of a summer

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1970838221933437098?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

It was very likely right at cat 3

Agreed! The balancing act between systems will be fascinating to watch

I take back what I said, I didn’t realize he would chase into China. Looks strongly like he got the eye of a likely still major storm. Good for him this was a wild chase I can’t wait to see his videos

Azores now under a hurricane warning. I wish someone was chasing there this should be a solid impact especially for a location that doesn’t really deal with many hurricanes

Latest HWRF takes a cat 3 into NC from 94L

That 18z Euro run is nuts

Hurricane watch issued for the Azores

As complicated a tropical development setup as you’ll ever see. Multiple competing waves, ULL progression, SE trough, a cat 4 hurricane nearby… Good luck making a call and standing on it with this setup

I said this a few days ago. Could be a significant storm for a spot that doesn’t see them often

Wet pattern looks to develop end of the week and depending on any possible tropical system we could see some hefty rainfall totals into next week. Check the Euro, over 1 foot for much of NC. That being said, amounts could be drastically lower if the lead wave fails to develop or stays offshore

Really interesting forecast with our cherry and our orange. Several possibilities with regards to storm formation, intensity, which waves becomes dominant, and potential land impacts. The only real positive is if anything develops from the Orange and moved to the coast the environment looks prohibitive for significant strengthening with a lot of continental dry air and an ULL over the SE but I could definitely see a tropical storm impact if that waves gets going as that ULL could try to pull it westward. The cherry would likely remain ots if it develops. I think the evolution of each individual wave will impact the outcome of the other as they are not far apart and we may actually see a merger. Very volatile atmosphere right now with very low model consensus but I am becoming confident we get a storm between the two

I believe the switch in the northern hemisphere has just flipped

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance