NorthHillsWx

If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite

We’re seeing differences of more than .5” of QPF across models around 36 hours out and other than EPS all ensembles have continued to trend down with precip through the day. Yet, CAMs are pretty wet even western areas. Do we trust CAMs or are we going to put our faith in globals? The differences across NC range from a nuisance event to major winter storm. I’d definitely avoid looking at the high snowfall maps. I think NE NC jacks with 4-6” and theres a swath of 1-3 that extends through triangle and south of that lies a sharp cutoff to ice. Fits climo and sounds reasonable considering vast model differences (I wouldn’t lean heavily one direction or the other)

Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better

I endorse this

GFS says cancel your warm weather plans

I don’t think they’re wrong. Maybe I’ll miss this and be happy but if anything shows a warm nose it usually wins. I really think this will be an impactful storm because temps are cold (if we get snow/IP rates) but I really don’t see more than 3” for wake and possibly a lot less south for mix area if ZR enters the chat. We just aren’t going to have the QPF to waste on mixing. Sucks. But that’s how I see it

I’d feel good if I was in a border county. And really good the further east you go up there. For wake I’m going 0.5-3” south to north. Raleigh is likely 1-1.5” with a cold slop of a day

UK

I mean even for north of Raleigh. QPF amounts vary wildly and some models have none.

This is my expectation. Think 4” is our high end and low end is 1/2” sleet

It’s a pick em of models 36 hours out. You got some showing a 6-10” snow storm for central NC, some showing an ice storm, some showing a light mix, and some showing absolutely nothing. I’ve seen model discrepancy in short range but this is wild

That decreased for most

10000%. When we lost the WAA snows earlier runs showed our margin for error decreased significantly

No major changes at all. Slightly colder upstairs for the transition line folks, noise elsewhere. But it didn’t trend worse or go to Euro. After last nights modeling collapse it feels like a win

Slight improvements on GFS. We needed that. Triangle will be happy. More snow west too

Most important GFS run of the year

They should’ve just used the @eyewall call map

How has the RGEM done this year?

ICON was OK here but big drop in precip for everyone

ICON looks a little warmer at 42

I know WRAL will be latching onto that NAM run like the Bible for their evening forecast

I’d actually love a sleet bomb. 2” of sleet doesn’t happen often here and is pretty cool when temps are low

It shouldn’t, but it will. I posted earlier we shouldn’t even have to be checking thermals with some solutions showing a sub 1000 mb low 50 miles east of hatteras, but here we are

If you live in western Virginia or the triad, enjoy your stay on NAM island!

Whichever shows strongest warm nose