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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Here’s how it helps us- the front end thump is roughly 0.30” in Raleigh. As depicted, that is all sleet. So if we only get 0.30-0.40” the rest of the event assuming runoff and maybe plain rain at the end there just isn’t enough QPF for the high end ice totals we were talking about 0.50”+
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Huffman brought down his ice forecast. Cited less QPF and more sleet. Said further tweaks down may be needed and that areas might avoid a repeat of 2002
  4. NorthHillsWx
    We will see, repercussions are massive
  5. NorthHillsWx
    NAM just wants to keep precip north with this system
  6. NorthHillsWx
    To me the biggest question of the storm is now QPF. Is this in the 0.75” range (CAMs) which would no doubt cause issues but not anything like some of the 1.5-2” outputs we’d been seeing on the globals. There is a huge gap between those sets of guidance and that will dictate whether this is a memorable ice storm or just a sloppy mixed bag with moderate amounts of each precip type
  7. NorthHillsWx
    RAH mentions decreased QPF on overnight modeling for the NC piedmont in their recent AFD. Still going with 0.5-0.75” ZR
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Eric Webb just said he sees more failure modes for a major ice accumulation in piedmont areas than he did this morning: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014544089119953034?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Mess but not what we thought… if we end up with an inch of sleet and 0.25” of ice after what we thought I mean that can only be described as a whiff on the forecast
  11. NorthHillsWx
    All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff
  12. NorthHillsWx
    GFS appears to have ticked north, not insignificantly
  13. NorthHillsWx
    GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too
  14. NorthHillsWx
    If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel
  15. NorthHillsWx
    I will say this, ICON and NAM ticked pretty far north with main moisture feed. If that shows up on other modeling the severity of this goes way way down. Freezing drizzle sucks but it doesn’t get you to damaging ice
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Yes, whatever ticks people are seeing on here it keeps getting warmer at surface on most modeling
  17. NorthHillsWx
    There is a path out of this if the main moisture feed misses us to the north and west. This has happened plenty of times with rainstorms
  18. NorthHillsWx
    You’d have to be on drugs to draw that map
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Get y’all’s storm plans in place triangle folks
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Yep and that’s in line with most predictions. Even conservative WRAL is going with 0.5-1” here in Raleigh which is pretty wild for them
  21. NorthHillsWx
    This. If it says 1” I’d expect 0.50”. However, with the cold temps and light rates, it could be higher than normal in some cases
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Come on, we can put it to the test! Drink till the lights go out, literally
  23. NorthHillsWx
    I had to refill our propane earlier at food lion and it wasn’t bad but she said lines were wrapped around the aisle
  24. NorthHillsWx
    My wife went to get supplies from grocery store and came back with more wine and beer than a village could drink. Love her
  25. NorthHillsWx
    This thread has been rolling for 3 months
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