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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. Watch the area of precip blossom south of Raleigh. Those showers are from the back of of the coastal starting to form. That will become the fronto band AKA Raleigh’s storm
  2. A lot of CAMs have it dry in Atlanta. It is far from that. As a nowcast that is something to watch for western piedmont For triangle-east it feels like we’re finally seeing consistency but it will be interesting to see if totals can be added to a little if the gulf moisture is slightly underdone. I’m monitoring radar trends in N GA, cams seem to have underdone precip there significantly this morning. GFS had a better handle on that and that’s not wishcasting. Currently 30.0/17.1
  3. This looks nothing like the radar in N GA right now
  4. @jburns can you pin this thread please. I think the banter in the other one is going to keep some of the good posters away as we move into game time.
  5. I’ve abandoned the other thread. The western folks are burning it to the ground. Triangle-east still looks good to me. Not deciphering every hour of obscure models. HRRR looks nice. NAM is fine. West areas lost WAA snow but coastal hasn’t changed much at all. I’m not sure that WAA snow doesn’t show back up on models tonight.
  6. Maybe, but we’ll see what radar looks like tomorrow.
  7. Greg Fischel just put a video up and said 2-3” all snow in Raleigh, 3-5 maybe 6 towards rocky mount, 8-10 for Elizabeth city. Expects sleet line to stay south of wake county
  8. HRRR with a noticeable uptick for most, though the separation between the coastal and upper level stuff was longer. Coastal juices a little more. Take what you want from the HRRR Anyone know how the storm is doing west of here? Seen a couple reports pop in but not much
  9. It’s currently 40.0 with a DP of 27.9. High was 51.3. Don’t think soil temps will be an issue but with a slightly delayed start time we may get above freezing before wet bulbing. Praying we get enough precip for this to matter
  10. Let’s trim the banter and start to nowcast. Good luck everyone, I started this thing so I’m bringing it home
  11. It may not be the monster the models thought it would be a couple days ago but it’s snow in the south so let’s get it! Good luck to all and hopefully someone gets buried!
  12. You will have 0.5” of sleet and you will like it!
  13. We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time
  14. RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore
  15. Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome”
  16. I’m just happy to be here. I’ll report back my 1/2” on mulch tomorrow
  17. The “major” argument may have F’d the rest of the board but when it was created, I was looking at 0” of snow and now almost all models show 3-6” here. Probably sacrificed everyone for Raleigh to jackpot, but that’s a sacrifice I can live with
  18. Hey now, we’re the only forum in the game still. NYC, PHILLY, and MA all fell hard but our major winter storm thread has survived!
  19. I’m cautiously optimistic for Raleigh with the 850 trending south and models consistently showing the fronto band overhead. Not too worried about model QPF unless that moves. Think this could be an over achiever
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