There will definitely be areas that see gusts 220+ where some of the higher terrain interacts with the eyewall. I cannot emphasize enough the wind event from this storm especially on an island with higher terrain will maximize the wind seen on the ground. Absolutely incredible
It’s possible but I think it bends back right as it comes onshore. Regardless he is in the absolute worst spot to be wind wise and is taking the full brunt at his location
Unfortunately it is coming in at peak strength and with some forward speed meaning that eastern side will maximize wind gusts. Dire situation in Jamaica. Coming in daylight, maybe Josh can get the stadium captured. This is going to be one of the strongest hurricane landfalls in history.
This storm could’ve worked in January. 1035 building into NE with a low developing about 80 miles off the coast. Not to mention overrunning for about 24 hours
First pass shows no real structural changes. No evidence of an outer eyewall development and no real pressure changes. Winds about the same. Let’s see what’s in the NE eyewall. I will say from a sat perspective this is the best the storms has looked.
That it’s a possibility now is quite shocking. These wobbles we’ve been watching for days now have extreme meaning given 2/3 of Jamaica is now probably too far right to be reasonably at threat for a direct landfall. I’m not saying it will miss but NHC explicitly has it heading NNE now on its track and it has definitely dipped due west. It will not take much more at all to miss entirely
Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now
One thing about the western shifts in track that might make this even more unlucky is we are getting close to a point where it could directly hit every potential landmass: Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda. Bermuda now squarely in play
It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast