NorthHillsWx

Landfall at peak intensity and intensifying rapidly. Wish there was footage from the landfall point but thankfully this kept heading south into extremely rural countryside

140 mph Cat 4. Incredible RI through landfall. Just wow

Drop of 3mb between passes

Major Rapidly intensifying into landfall. This doesn’t happen on Mexico’s west coast often

Lidia now a major

Lidia growing teeth quickly this morning

42 this morning. Frost out towards Louisburg

As if on cue- Philippe was finally downgraded and the streak is over

With Philippe continuing (albeit a disorganized mess) the streak of an active Atlantic storm continues. Since August 20, there has not been an advisory cycle without an active system. Further, with models now showing development of the next wave coming off Africa, it will be a race to see if that development occurs prior to Philippe’s extratropical transition. What a streak regardless

I still don’t see how this has managed to remain classified as a tropical system for the past couple days. Recon yet again shows a broad, trough-like circulation

Per the GFS, the system opens up into a wave before being absorbed and combining with a large, non-tropical low over GL and Canada. Pretty wild to see what’s left of a tropical cyclone go from the Virgin Islands to Ontario without ever touching the US

Per recon, radar, and sat, I’m not sure Philippe still has a closed center or meets criteria to still be a storm. Looks to have opened up

If you read CSU’s prediction, it was pretty spot on. My only critique to this point is they called for an ACE of 160 with 18 storms. We are well below that with 18 storms due to many weak and short lasting named systems this year. However, their forecast reasoning played out in the face of ENSO and I think it was truly an impressive call, especially to increase their prediction during a period when the basin was completely inactive.

As of this writing, the North Atlantic basin has exceeded an ACE value of 123. This is the value typically associated with an “average” season. I do not think many people predicted an above average ACE season, much less with more than a month to go and two active storms. Add in 18 named storms with 3 becoming major hurricanes (all cat 4+) and this has been an extremely active year. For an El Niño season (specifically a strong El Niño) this is absolutely unprecedented.

18z GFS has Philippe literally absorb the other storm whilst interacting with Rina in a textbook perfect Fujiwhara effect and then absorbing Rinas remnants and becoming a monster hurricane. Almost 0 threat to land but i hope people are paying attention to this over the next several days as this is possibly the beginning of an incredibly rare meteorological event with two cyclones interacting in this manner

I cannot find a closed circulation center on visible

If this summer’s any indication, the east coast will have plenty of storm development. Let’s up it keeps up with ENSO but the signs are there

The model guidance for this system has become comical

Amazing weather

All I’ll say is this parade of coastal storms better continue into the winter…

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/OpheliaReview2023 Summary of Ophelia. Some very impressive winds on land along with the buoy reports (some over 80 mph) and recon observations indicate this was extremely close to hurricane strength at landfall. Not sure there’s enough for an upgrade but a 70 mph TS producing numerous 65-75 mph recorded gusts is impressive. It came it at a bad angle for Washington. I have some friends there who said it’s some of the worst flooding they’d experienced and no one expected it to be that bad

2.96” from Ophelia

This started showing up a few days ago but current storm (Philippe) looks to continue running headfirst in a wall of shear. The trailing wave (91l) actually benefits from this as the predecessor storm creates a break in the shear. The two systems go through a complex interaction, somewhat like a fujiwhara effect, before Philippe becomes a remnant low and the trailing system takes over as the dominant storm. Given the complexity of this interaction, guidance for 91L is all over the place. It seems a quicker weakening of Philippe may ultimately lead to a stronger trailing system. I expect heavy swings in model track guidance over the next couple of days as 91L seems tied to Philippe’s fate both from a track and intensity perspective. If 91L remains weak and not vertically stacked, it may take the southern route and get close to the islands. If it strengthens more, it seems to feel Philippe and get pulled north towards the break in the ridge quicker. Time will tell

Maybe. I would be a bit surprised if Idalia was retired, seemed to be more bark than bite. Agree. We will have a NW Caribbean/GOM storm. We’re reaching that time period

Flash flooding becoming an issue. If you’ve driven around the triangle today you know what I’m talking about. Crabtree creek closing in on flood stage