NorthHillsWx

Did no expect the core to completely disappear this soon.

With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year

Not sure any international agency would’ve prevented what happened in Libya, sadly.

Other than FL winds, nothing else points to this being a cat 2 anymore. Max SFMR values of 70-75 kts two flights in a row

Regardless where/if this comes ashore, I think the calling card will be rain and inland flooding. There’s really no baroclinic forcing or jet streak to enhance winds during the ET transition like some of the storms that hit up north and models are showing a rapid and normal decay of winds once this transitions over the wall of the Gulf Stream. Add into that, wind shear really peaks at 20-30kts by the time this is going by Bermuda and you have a rapidly weakening system before it hits the cold water north of the GS. Also, for a high latitude storm, this will be comparatively crawling in terms of forward speed (which will further decrease the wind threat). However, that slower than normal forward speed and tge potential for a bit of a pivot means that heavy tropical moisture will be thrust into the NW side of the system (normal during ET transition) and areas not accustomed to these tropical rain rates will have a prolonged rainstorm. I really think inland flooding with this could be significantly worse than many recent high latitude storms that were flying through when they impacted land. Though I think the wind threat has decreased significantly since even yesterday

Isabel is such an underrated storm. That’s the high tide mark for a mid-Atlantic purely tropical storm in my lifetime. I think the storm beginning with an “S” made many forget about Isabel North of Maryland

One thing about Lee, hurricane force winds now extend extremely far from center. Recon is finding this thing has exploded in size. It’s probably a high end cat 2 now (FL 105-108 kts, SFMR 90 kts) tho there is evidence to keep it a 3 for posterity at least but wow at the expansion of hurricane force winds

That 0z run would be one of the worst erosion events ever for the SE coast lol

Do not, I repeat do no use any sort of tropical pressure scale to estimate wind of high latitude, post tropical systems. Pressures are lower up north and lower pressures in these regions will not be associated to winds the same way they are for storms that are purely tropical in nature and in lower latitudes. I’m not saying a Cat 1 is off the table but some models have been showing pressures as low as the 950’s and 960’s near any landfall and wind will certainly be nowhere near those levels

The board is going to go full blown weenie mode by Wednesday

0.08” yesterday for a 3 day total of 1.86”

Margot looks like a hurricane this morning. Think we’ll see an update at 11. The activity continues

Recon is showing signs of a double wind maximum

Lee keeps trying, but I think a combination of done pesky dry air and possibly some remnant shear keep plaguing the system keeping it in check

GFS with the Isabel redux

Looks ready to pop open an eye at any moment

All I’ll say for those seeking hurricane conditions in NE with these westward shifts is forget about it. Coming further west seems to only happen if the storm avoids capture and slows down allowing HP to build back in somewhat. A storm slowing down over the frigid waters off Massachusetts/Maine will weaken to a Nor Easter gale by the time it makes it to the coast

1.63” from multiple rounds of storms and showers Saturday

I WAS THINKING OF THIS. Very similar situation

Recon shows this a mid range cat 2 at the moment. The storm clearly ingested dry air. That takes time to resolve

It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look

Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period

Picked up 0.15” from yesterday’s afternoon storm

Inner core then nothing. That’s not a healthy look

As strong as Lee was last night/early this morning, it had nothing on Jova. Definitely some SW shear at the moment, you can clearly see it impacting the cloud tops to the SW of the storms main convective envelope. We’ll have to see if Lee has a part 2 phase of intensification and also what internal changes occur as to whether a or not the storm peaked earlier today or if we can see a second max