NorthHillsWx

GFS was a strung out mess. It misses the NS energy.

Now, lol

ICON brings the storm in early Wednesday morning. It’s 10 hours ahead of the Euro. There’s your difference. If it slows down, we’re in the winter weather

Perfect track rainstorm lol

It sounds counter intuitive from what we’ve become used to but with a prime cold air source north of this, we need it to start deepening earlier to be able to more efficiently work that air into the system at mid levels. Amped, assuming it doesn’t cut up the coast, might be better here. With the extreme -AO, this might have less chance of cutting even as an amped system. I don’t think BL temps will be an issue especially if this slows down but the mid levels are torched on most modeling except the ones showing it bombing off the Carolina coast. That’s definitely a trend at this point

This is setting up like a classic major winter storm. Been a long time coming. The cold air this has to work with is significantly better than we’re used to with a lot of miller As so, freezing rain might be a bigger issue than normal. From experience though, that freezing rain area will shrink and sleet will become more of a factor. Also if this thing forms a deformation band, they frequently cool the column through rates and you end up with heavy snow in areas progged as a mix a few days out. Lots of words to say: im not buying a massive ice storm in the Carolinas if this is a coastal bomb. Lots to iron out but it is now looking likely (>70%) that central/western NC and most of Virginia will have a significant winter storm. Track will be key as always. We want a slower system still.

How waking up this morning felt after yesterdays models

I’ll take a sleet bomb. Just keep us out of what happened in the first storm this year

I’ve been shoveling digital snow since Christmas

Big dog pattern. Everyone sees it. Pretty special setup, doesn’t mean we’ll score but it’s been a long time

Is @eyewall in? It’s been awhile

The best thing about that is it’s not a northwest trend. It’s becoming a perfect low track. It’s just juicing up and cooling down so more of the forum gets snow. What a freaking look

I’ll cash out

We’ll take that bet

MA forum will meltdown over that GFS run. 20” in Va Beach, 0” in DC

I think every model has trended positively this afternoon!!!

GFS is a big NC hit. Trends are our friend today folks!!!

We just spent two full days below 40 degrees and looks like that will happen again next week. Not saying it cancels out the warm start but this is impressive cold, we haven’t seen cold air like this in February in many years

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=7

GEFS is a beautiful look

This is a really strong winter storm signal. That is all.

With all that being said, the ICON, GFS, and CMC were all colder than their previous runs and all had major winter storms for central NC. CMC and ICON are even more expansive winter storms, but are both trash models

It just wants to snow in Virginia this year. DC-Fredericksburg has had a banner year for a Nina

If you’re referring to 12z yesterday then yes but it is colder than 0z with much more snow even here in triangle where we didn’t have any at 0z

Canadian wasn’t warmer. It’s acceptable. 24+ hour storm