NorthHillsWx

Warm nose for RDU is significantly smaller than previous runs

I lived in DC between 2004-2008 and I cannot remember the year but it was late winter and we were forecast to get a crippling ice storm but it ended up being the biggest sleet bomb of my life. Maybe 5-6” of sleet with a little ZR. I remember the piles next to roofs were like 2’+ deep and it lasted in the shade almost until April. Was literally like a glacier, it could not be shoveled just chisled

I wasn’t even a thought at that point haha. I was born in ‘89

I think if we’re looking at trends this far out pretty much every model has trended to a more intense cold dome north of us. How often does DC get a HECS with foot+ totals and temps around 20? This is not normal stuff here at least at the surface. In my time tracking I cannot remember many coastals where DC sat in the low 20s. Same goes for Richmond through western Virginia. I mean this is rare to get an airmass like this to align with a powerful coastal

ICON explodes into a MA special and buries DC-East in 20+ inches

Surface about the same but mid levels a tad bit better for I-85

NM about the same

ICON coming in colder than last run

NWS is all in on tomorrow being a very significant damaging wind event. Widespread power outages expected. Man that would suck to lose power tomorrow and then get hit with a (potentially) devastating ice storm Wednesday

I think people are overlooking tomorrow’s wind event and, in honesty, it crept up on me. Hi res models are spitting out widespread 50+ mph gusts and some gusts up near 70 mph!!! This is after most areas have seen 3+” of rain after tonight’s rainfall. That should be very saturated soil especially in February

High wind warning issued for central/NE NC tomorrow. Gusts 50-60 with saturated soils. What could go wrong???

Nonstop tracking all winter lol. Regardless what happens Wednesday/thursday it looks like we’ll at least be tracking through the end of the month

If it’s 24 degrees and raining here I give up.

Though handled differently other models are showing this too. GFS actually really close to another coastal. The 23-25 timeframe needs to be watched for our next storm. I haven’t had time to check the indices but it looks like cold from next weeks storm will stick around long enough to make things interesting. Won’t be a fresh airmass like we are working with Wednesday but it may work. Something to keep our eye on

If I received a 6” glacier my sick self would be as happy as if that was a foot of snow bc it would stay on the ground into march lol

Pretty good trends at 12z for I-85. Triangle still icemageddon but the colder trends continue to look more sleety

EURO turns the Triangle into a glacier

EURO isn’t a step in the right direction. It’s a leap

ICON is an ice apocalypse for Raleigh goodness

UK GFS and CMC all colder at surface for most

I’m still highly skeptical of a large ZR area. It seems extremely likely someone will get a crippling ice storm given the unusual cold north of us and strong low level CAA but these miller As almost always trend to a narrower ZR area and more sleet. Also, the cold is deep and entrenched over Va and the high is building in as the storm moves in. Seems like a recipe for more sleet as the storm goes on and flip to snow if a deform band sets up…

I said this yesterday and I’ll stand by it but if this phases sooner (assuming same track) and a deform band forms I really think a lot of the western piedmont will flip to snow. That probably won’t be reflected on models until we get closer but with models seemingly ticking colder, at the surface I’d have to think 925s will too and dynamics may be able to overcome the 850 torch. Sadly colder lower levels don’t mean a fat warm nose can’t still exist but this looks to be a dynamic storm that can overcome a moderate warm nose with rates. Some of the soundings in the upstate and foothills show a thick warm nose but it isn’t much more than +1 which might be workable with small changes

6z GEFS was the best low track yet from that suite. Would seem to be colder/snowier

Here we go:

In a year that actually featured winter weather for the entire forum, it seems fitting that we finally buck the trend of early spring in February, with a major winter storm showing up midweek. The pattern is ripe for winter weather and models have been unusually locked in on a storm threat for the last 10 days. The storm has a very cold airmass to work with to the north but as always, track, timing, strength and depth of cold air will be critical to determining who gets what and how much. As we inch closer to “go time” it is becoming apparent this will likely be a high end storm for parts of the east coast, and it will be a mixed bag for NC/SC and possibly even north Georgia. Lots to iron out over the next few days but there is potential for high amounts of snow and ice over parts of the forum. Let’s get this thing rocking!