NorthHillsWx

I’m still optimistic for RDU to have a moderate snowfall and like you, I’ll sacrifice QPF if it’s snow and not ZR. But we’re solidly on the western edge now. Normally I’d say this is a good spot to be, but with our low trending weaker and not just south, we are now at real risk of missing everything. 06z GFS actually showed some positives and some of the hi res models show the coastal taking over and snow building over top of us but pretty much everyone has lost the WAA snow and that transfer to the coastal is going to leave a lot of folks dry. We are not out of it by any means and as is with this id go with 2-4” based on current modeling but the boom potential is rapidly waning and it’s looking much more likely the floor is mood flakes

It’s got Twitter Mets thoroughly flummoxed. Everyone bit on this one with EPS absence rock solid for nearly a week. You get to day 4 and with the EPS locked in the way it was, you expect at least there will be a big storm somewhere

I think as some have said on here that models just do not do well when the NS is as dominant as it has been this year. Every single storm has trended weaker up until go time. Even the late Jan system that produced the light snow, the NW trend wasn’t from a strengthening trend, models just caught onto the mid level moisture during the last 24 hours. Now this one is an exceptional fail because every model suite missed it. Not just EPS. It’s rare to get the day 4-5 agreement we had with this storm. I mean it was run after run consistency. I try not to get pulled into long range modeling but certainly when every ensemble group is painting the same picture inside day 6 you have to take note. This will be one that we need to remember in the future about how to fail in the mid range.

Great post by Eric Webb: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1891432322140172406?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’ve gotta say, when this first appeared, I thought the biggest risk for the forum was an 850 torch and watching western VA through the MA get buried. If you’d shown me this mornings runs two days ago and told me it was the same storm I legit may have laughed at you. We may fail, but we will not fail as bad as those north of us. Hell Richmond might win fail of the year, going from consistent 15”+ modeling for days to a non event.

I still think RDU is in a great spot. Now we don’t need it bleeding further east or this is a coast only snowfall. What a drastic change over last 2 days. It fooled WPC which had triad-DC in 70% for heavy snow

True but almost identical to its last run. Maybe a hair drier but similar

ICON would feed families. Coastal bomb with banding from the gods. Also no issues with thermals and it slows down plus throws in some light snow with the ULL passage like the CMC. It also juiced up further west (sorry foothill area, still blanked). Great run and a HECS

ICON a big hit triangle-east. All snow

Spoke too soon

ICON looks like a strung out mess

Major sleet bomb for the northern 1/2 of NC

Just a few hundred miles south of its last run, no big deal

Raleigh to Va Beach looks like as good a shot as that area’s had in 6 years for a major snow

The MA forum actually now has 2 storm threads because the first one didn’t work out for them

If it’s after 9 they should be fine once they get out of the neighborhood

I’m assuming its more juiced up

Ouch

I was surprised to see that. Don’t think we hit 40 here either

Wow. RDU gusted to 59 and Fayetteville gusted to 61. Guess it was just random vs widespread

Richmond fringed now

If the bar is 5-10” between models going into this for Raleigh I think we’ll be OK… Snow maps aside, the heaviest snow extending from triangle NE is pretty uniform on models at this point, and aligns with the major ensembles. I’d focus more on that than extrapolating totals from op runs

There is no denying it now, and it’s painful given the ongoing snow drought there, but the foothills are trending to a non event. There is time to correct, but the trend is concrete at this point. If the EURO verified, this would be RDUs biggest snow storm since 2002

RGEM was a nice hit for Raleigh-East. All snow 64-north. Foothills completely blanked…

We’re holding on for posterity when this trends to a 1-3” mixed bag at most it will be remembered a “major” 1-3” mixed bag