NorthHillsWx

Honestly that’s not far from a plausible outcome. The consensus seems to be 0.2-0.3” QPF for RDU so I seriously doubt we don’t see something accumulate but that’s likely 1-1.5”. 6z GFS and 12k NAM keep hope alive for maybe a warning but everything else cut totals. 3k NAM went from a 6-8” storm to 2-4” and the EURO now has Raleigh down to around 2”

This has to tick west, right? Every coastal like the last 10 years has ticked west right before go time and burnt Raleigh but this one ticks east? At this point I’m not sure even if it’s all snow there will be enough QPF to get more than 1-2 inches and, once again with light rates and falling in afternoon, that will be 1-2” on the grass. So a nuisance event.

Yea I will be honest I do not see what they are up your way. Raleigh looks like it’s going to be on the very edge of the coastal and north and west of that QPF falls. Only place a warning looks locked in is far SE VA and NE NC. Should be a great event there

Looks like QPF continues to go down and mid levels continue to cool. RAH pretty much said they aren’t sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria in central NC. Seems like the correct call at this juncture

SW Virginia stayed about the same

Canadian went pretty far east. Cut QPF across the board

Until the NAM caves I’m tempering my expectations for all snow.

That’s a great run for triangle folks. Beefed up QPF and better thermals. Look at the foothills screw zone. That area cannot catch a break

GFS is excellent triangle east. Not good for foothills crowd

Shaping up to be a good coastal storm for whoever has banding and no mid level issues

Bet against NAM thermals at your own peril

How is a low tracking 150 miles southeast of cape lookout not snow in Raleigh?

NAM is setting up south and juiced. Will we get NAMd???

It’s the 48 hour HRRR it’s for entertainment purposes only. One thing that is interesting about this year IMBY is it’s looking likely we have 3 events that stay below freezing for basically the event. Cold air has not been the problem

HRRR looked good for eastern half of NC

If you’re not plucking out individual SREF members to post are you really living?

If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite

We’re seeing differences of more than .5” of QPF across models around 36 hours out and other than EPS all ensembles have continued to trend down with precip through the day. Yet, CAMs are pretty wet even western areas. Do we trust CAMs or are we going to put our faith in globals? The differences across NC range from a nuisance event to major winter storm. I’d definitely avoid looking at the high snowfall maps. I think NE NC jacks with 4-6” and theres a swath of 1-3 that extends through triangle and south of that lies a sharp cutoff to ice. Fits climo and sounds reasonable considering vast model differences (I wouldn’t lean heavily one direction or the other)

Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better

I endorse this

GFS says cancel your warm weather plans

I don’t think they’re wrong. Maybe I’ll miss this and be happy but if anything shows a warm nose it usually wins. I really think this will be an impactful storm because temps are cold (if we get snow/IP rates) but I really don’t see more than 3” for wake and possibly a lot less south for mix area if ZR enters the chat. We just aren’t going to have the QPF to waste on mixing. Sucks. But that’s how I see it

I’d feel good if I was in a border county. And really good the further east you go up there. For wake I’m going 0.5-3” south to north. Raleigh is likely 1-1.5” with a cold slop of a day

UK

I mean even for north of Raleigh. QPF amounts vary wildly and some models have none.