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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range
  2. I mean from modeling that seems very reasonable and in fact you could even move the mixed bag area further north if NAM thermals are your thing…
  3. Great job. I could not agree with this more given what we’ve seen
  4. It truly has been the model with the highest variance through this event. But you want it on your side under 48 hours
  5. That band over Raleigh is fools gold. The main coastal is too far offshore and trended much worse
  6. Not saying it’s wrong but EURO is WAY south of everything else now
  7. Ok I’ll be honest I don’t think I looked at the 6z UK because people said it was bad but I didn’t realize it was THAT bad. I guess this was an improvement but still way worse than 0z
  8. Does not inspire confidence the EURO will make and big changes
  9. I’m guessing NWS will issue watches after looking at the EURO but my guess is east of 77 through RAH will all be under a watch this afternoon, with maybe the exception of the far southern tier of counties. Side note- they brined 440 near my office in garner
  10. CMC is 6-10” from Raleigh East with an Elizabeth city 12-15” Jack
  11. CMC ticked west. Great storm triangle east. Very cold still
  12. Except RDU was in the jackpot too early. This will trend back to sleet/freezing rain for us. Mark my words lol
  13. Yep. Bleeding has stopped. Everything so far at 12z looks about the same. Let’s see how far west the precip trends today
  14. Seeing these sub-1000 mb lows tucked 50 miles off hatteras and worrying about thermals with extremely low surface temps sucks, but I guess that’s what you get when your cold air source is a 1050 in the Midwest
  15. ICON has Raleigh riding the sleet line at 23-25 degrees. That would be a kick in the nads to be at 23 degrees for an event and it be a wintry mix
  16. SE Forum: I think the bleeding has stopped. Take one step back from the cliff edge
  17. I fear we mix bad. Think those uber suppressed/cold looks were fools gold for thermals. We’ll see what globals show but hi res is concerning
  18. FV3 has 0.4-0.5” QPF across most of central nc and the storm is only about half over at end of the run
  19. You’re in that spot where you can smell the mix but have heavy snow. Gotta ride the line to max out!!!
  20. FV3 looks like a major winter storm for most of NC and southern VA
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