Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range