NorthHillsWx

Weenie traffic

So far all 12z guidance has a storm and plentiful cold air available

At a minimum I’m thinking I’ll have good skiing in Virginia next weekend!!! Possibly fresh snow with serious cold. Could possibly have hit the timing jackpot for an east coast family ski trip

^^^This. Overall looks at H5 are very similar. Oz GFS was much slower and allowed 1030+ heights to build into Virginia pre-storm which brought in the cold air before the storm. Very much like the Canadian. There isn’t that much difference in setup.

CMC is almost a carbon copy of 0z GFS lol

Oh Canada!!!!

Kinda fizzles but it’s a nice gulf low track with snow in the northern half of NC and ice south into South Carolina. Might be wrapping up some too as it gets into Atlantic. Definitely close

ICON looks like it’s going to be a big storm

As miserable as it is, this is the perfect drought busting rain. Not too heavy and steady. We’re at 1.25” and counting

Euro insists on a late bloomer. 6z GFS was suppressed with the main wave (snow for coast) and too warm on the initial wave, but still has the storm.

We continued dropping through the night. Currently 33.6 with 1.14” of rain and absolutely pouring

True but for D8, that’s very good agreement. And it’s way south from its 12z run… like way south

GFS keeps central NC below freezing from 12z on the 19th through 18z on the 23rd.

Always fear the NW trend but as depicted the high in the Midwest could not be better positioned and strengthening heights 1030+ north of us with a mid level flow that’s more sw/ne oriented, the chance this cuts would be minimal. That’s textbook cold air transport and really a classic miller A look. We need to watch the trend on model runs to keep building heights north of us to keep northerly progression limited. But that’s a textbook Carolina’s snowstorm setup. This pattern is SCREAMING a storm and now we can see the potential. Cold air transport always the #1 thing to look for and oh baby is it there

CMC with a very similar look…

As I said

I too, will take my 21.3 and call it a season

We’re talking low 20’s and heavy snow in central NC in late February. Dream run, still snowing

HOLY MOLY lol

Incoming on GFS…

We’re now down to 34.5 with right around 1/2” of rainfall. If only this was snow

I mean just from a weather discussion standpoint. Absolutely not banking on a storm but we get 3 months a year to talk winter weather and actually have a favorable pattern with storms showing up and no one wants to talk lol. 8 days out on GFS

I’ve been watching this one from afar, but GFS for the win on this system

Congrats from the southerners. Looks like a hell of an event between DC and Fredericksburg. Wouldn’t be shocked to see some 15” totals if that banding keeps up overnight. DC looks locked in for a very solid snowfall

We’ve actually continued to fall through the day. Down to 35.7 after a midnight high of 38.8 If only this was south DC, they are getting absolutely blasted tonight. Some areas will see 12-15” I believe